Quite simply, they performed exactly as expected. Judge had a pretty good day. Sanchez added just the one RBI double. Stanton carried the load and was the indisputable offensive star of the game. Rarely will all three of them be outstanding at the same time, but with three hitters as gifted as they are, one of them will probably do something special on any given night. Sometimes, the simple act of getting on base is special enough. In 2017, their OBP were as follows:

Each is pretty impressive individually, but collectively they become insurmountable. The opposing pitcher has a greater than 50% chance of getting any one of them out, but when they bat consecutively, the pitcher has to retire all three. The chances of getting past them completely unscathed are only 23.6%. Roughly 3 out of 4 times, at least one of them will get on base.

That’s daunting enough as is, but a starting pitcher usually has to get through the batting order more than once. The pitcher has just a 5.6% chance of facing Judge/Stanton/Sanchez twice and recording 6 outs. If the pitcher is having a particularly good day, he might have to face them a third time. In that case, he’s only got a 1.3% chance of retiring them three times each!

Against a right-handed starter, manager Aaron Boone will probably split them up in the lineup. However, Opening Day was a special case. J. A. Happ, the Blue Jays starting pitcher, is a lefty. Assuming the trio will bat consecutively mostly against lefties, we should use their OBP vs. LHP to determine their odds of success:

As expected, all of them were even better against southpaws last season. Judge and Sanchez saw a minor jump in OBP, but Stanton improved 76 points!

Using their OBP vs. LHP, the opposing pitcher has a 20.0% chance of getting them all out one time, a 4.0% chance of doing it twice, and just a 0.8% chance of getting them to go 0-9!

Out of the 162 games the Yankees will play in any given season, they’ll face a lefty starting pitcher probably 30-40 times. Those pitchers will each have less than 1/100 odds of retiring the side against Judge/Stanton/Sanchez three times in a game. At that rate, it might happen just once between now and the end of the 2020 season. Judge and Sanchez won’t become free agents until at least 2023 and Stanton’s contract is guaranteed through 2027. Barring trades or injuries, opposing LHP will have plenty more chances to face them, but their odds of success are insanely long.

Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It’s mildly surprising that we haven’t seen Judge in left field for any of this camp’s exhibition games. Of course, there are still two more weeks for Judge to get an opportunity, but there doesn’t appear to be any urgency to do so. Although the team hasn’t explicitly given its rationale for Stanton getting live game chances over Judge, there must be some reasoning behind it. So, why have the Yankees made Stanton the apparent alternative in left field? A few things come to mind:

1. Stanton has plenty of experience playing in an expansive outfield corner already.

As we already know, Yankee Stadium’s left field is pretty vast toward left center’s death valley. On the other hand, the park’s right field is quite small. Stanton’s former home field in Miami has a large outfield all around, including Stanton’s natural spot, right field. When it comes to navigating a huge outfield, Stanton has done that already, whereas Judge is accustomed to covering less ground. Point to Stanton.

2. Judge is returning from shoulder surgery, so perhaps it’s best to keep things business as usual for him.

We already know that the Yankees took it slow with Judge’s return, gradually working him back into full activity this spring. Perhaps the team decided that adding another wrinkle to his return was unnecessary, making the choice for Stanton in left an easier call.

3. FRAA, UZR, and DRS all preferred Stanton to Judge in 2017.

Per UZR and DRS last year, Stanton and Judge were virtually even defensively though both gave Stanton the slight nod. FRAA clearly preferred Stanton to Judge. All around, both outfielders are viewed highly for their defensive work, but Stanton’s efforts appear to be a tad better from this standpoint. Obviously, the Yankees didn’t simply look at these three stats and call it a day, but it might have helped a tad.

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Alright, so there are some pretty good reasons behind the Yankees’ thinking. However, is there evidence that Judge might be the better choice? My opinion is yes. Here’s why:

1. Statcast Metrics prefer Judge.

Even though some of the aforementioned advanced fielding metrics gave a slight nod to Stanton last year, Statcast left little doubt about who was better defensively. Judge beat Stanton in Outs Above Average by a wide margin, clearly grading Judge as an above average fielder, while it pegged Stanton to be a hair below the norm. Much of this is due to Judge making two percent more catches than were expected, meanwhile Stanton stood even.

When it came to difficult plays, Judge outshined Stanton. Stanton didn’t convert one 5 star play, while Judge was able to make two. Both made the same amount of 4 star catches, though Judge had one extra opportunity. Judge had the advantage in two and three star catches soundly. One star catches, or rather easy plays, were practically a tie. Considering how large left field is compared to right field at Yankee Stadium, I’d anticipate more difficult plays occurring in left. That would seem to make Judge better suited there compared to Stanton.

A quick summary of the 5 through 1 star categories:

5* = 0 – 25% catch probability

4* = 26 – 50% catch probability

3* = 51 – 75% catch probability

2* = 76 – 90% catch probability

1* = 91 – 95% catch probability

2. Judge has experience at other outfield positions more recently than Stanton.

As recently as 2016, Judge spent time in both left and center field while in Triple-A. It wasn’t much (63 innings in left, 26 innings in center), but it’s certainly more than Stanton has of late. In fact, since reaching the majors in 2010, Stanton has only one inning under his belt that wasn’t in right field. Considering both players’ recent experience, it seems like Judge would have an easier time transitioning to a new spot.

3. Judge is faster and younger.

This point could be construed as a stretch, considering a 0.2 MPH different in sprint speed is marginal. Furthermore, sprint speed doesn’t account for acceleration (i.e. how long it takes either player to get to their top speed). Still, I think it’s reasonable to give the nod to Judge in terms of athleticism because of the age difference. Judge is three years junior to Stanton, and younger people tend to be quicker than older humans. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think that Judge gets to his maximum running speed quicker than Stanton. Further evidence of this can be found by circling back to the Statcast metrics, which have Judge making tougher catches more frequently than Stanton. Those catches generally require more ground to be covered, so logic would indicate that Judge got to his top speed sooner than Stanton last season in order to make those low probability catches.

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For all this talk about left field, Gardner can’t be left out. After all, he is expected to be the team’s everyday left fielder while Judge and Stanton mostly split duties between right field and designated hitter. Plus, Gardner has played in at least 145 games every season since 2013, so perhaps who’s in left when he’s not in the lineup won’t be a big factor this season. It sure seems like Stanton will only get a couple dozen games in left field at most, right? Maybe not.

Even though Gardner is very durable, it’s reasonable to think he belongs in a platoon permanently. In the last two years, Gardner has performed much better against right-handers than southpaws.

There’s been no hint that Gardner will predominantly play against righties this season, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if that’show it sorts out. If that’s the case, we should be seeing plenty of Stanton and Judge covering both corners while allowing another right-handed bat in the lineup (Miguel Andujar? Tyler Austin?). With how spring training has gone, it’s clear that Stanton will be the one getting the most reps in left as compared to Judge, if not all of them. It’s not a bad decision, per se, as Stanton is a sturdy fielder in his own regard. It just might not be the best decision.

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UZR, DRS, and wRC+ splits via Fangraphs.

FRAA via Baseball Prospectus.

Statcast data via Baseball Savant.

(Photo credit: Reinhold Matay | USA TODAY Sports)

EJ, Scott and Paul discuss the Giancarlo Stanton trade.

1. Murderers Row

The 1927 Yankees are the go-to lazy heuristic for commentators who want to say that a team’s lineup is really good. It’s easy to forget how good Murderer’s Row was: Earle Combs, Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Bob Meusel, and Tony Lazzeri at the height of their powers. With Giancarlo Stanton, the 2018 Yankees can earn the same comparison. Stanton and Aaron Judge will join Gary Sanchez, a legitimate 40-home run threat on his own, to form the best lineup in baseball.

The Yankees led baseball with 241 home runs last season. With Stanton, they will have a good shot at breaking the all-time single-season team home run record of 264, set by the Seattle Mariners in 1997. They might do it with some room to spare.

2. More trades are coming due to luxury tax implications

Stanton carries a relatively modest $25 million luxury tax hit and about $22.3 million after the Marlins cash. Starlin Castro’s cap hit was $8.6 million. The Yankees still have strong incentives to keep their payroll under $197 million for the 2018 season. Based on my estimation earlier this season, this trade puts the Yankees at around $184 million, with a starting pitching slot left to fill. CC Sabathia will come cheap, but I doubt he’ll come < $10 million cheap, and even so the Yankees aren’t leaving themselves much margin for error or deadline trades.

My guess is that Jacoby Ellsbury is still going somewhere as a straight salary dump. Ellsbury is now completely useless on a team with three corner outfielders and Aaron Hicks. If they can save $5 million on the final years of his contract, they can put that money toward signing CC Sabathia. Dellin Betances ($4.4 million estimated) and Adam Warren ($3 million) are almost certainly gone as well.

3. The Yankees are betting big on Gleyber Torres

Had Gleyber Torres not gone down with a freak injury, there is little doubt in my mind that he would be on the starting Yankee roster. He’s really good: Torres is the #1 prospect in the Yankee system, top-5 in baseball. He was in the middle of a huge breakout season at 20 years old in the high minors, following an AzFL MVP win at 19.

That said, it feels early to bet on Torres. I thought the Yankees would send him back to Triple-A for at least a month to delay his service time and give him some time to get rolling after the injury. Now, the Yankees have little choice but to play him. If he struggles in spring training, they’ll have to choose between Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade at the position. That’s not great.

4. The Yankees upgraded their worst position.

Yankees designated hitters were almost exactly replacement level last year. While the Yankees will almost certainly rotate Stanton, Judge, Gardner, and Sanchez at the position, for all intents and purposes Giancarlo Stanton is replacing those at-bats. The Yankees received two runs above average at DH last season. Stanton was worth +48 runs last season or an improvement of approximately 5 wins.

The Yankees are probably now favorites to win the AL East.

5. Clint Frazier’s long-term role is uncertain

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will be the starting left and right fielders for the Yankees for the foreseeable future. Brett Gardner is around for the next two years barring a trade. Aaron Hicks is in center.  Even with the potential to stash someone at DH, it’s hard to see a long-term role for Clint Frazier. In fact, it’s hard to see Clint Frazier getting much playing time next season barring one or two injuries. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle Frazier. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade.

6. No Bryce Harper

The Yankees looked poised to sign Bryce Harper next season to a massive contract. That’s not happening anymore. I get that Judge and Harper can fake it in center field, but it’s not realistic to expect Harper to play there into his late 20s. He’s not going to be a Yankee.

Manny Machado is a much more likely big-time signing.

Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove / USA TODAY Sports

Judge has the hardest hit ball of the Statcast era, the longest home run of the season, the most home runs in the majors, everything in that chart above; the list goes on and on. Yet two of the more widely referenced stats when it comes to regression – HR/FB% and particularly BABIP – currently hold Judge well above the rest of the pack. His BABIP is .420 (26 points higher than Miguel Sano, second highest), with a HR/FB% of 41.3% (8.4% higher than Cody Bellinger, second best) heading into Tuesday night’s action.

It may seem irrational, but for one of the first times in my memory, I’m heavily perplexed by how much I should put in projection systems looking towards what Aaron Judge will do by season’s end. Boiling this argument down to the most rudimentary, non-statistical language I can; if we haven’t seen Judge’s batted-ball accomplishments before, how are we to believe that a projection system of historical data, can effectively factor in the feats in guesses at Judge’s average or slugging percentage? If it believes in the smoothing of perceived “outliers,” what happens if the 6’7″ Judge is simply going to hit baseballs this far and hard for the rest of the season, and perhaps, his career?

As we understand it, exit velocity stabilizes relatively quick for hitters, reliable over 70% after 50 batted ball events – Judge has 169 of such events. In 2016, we saw only one player above 95 mph in terms of average exit velocity. That individual was a free swinging, strikeout-prone player by the name of… Aaron Judge. The closest two samples we have to Judge’s 2017 exit velocity since 2015 are Giancarlo Stanton in 2015 (95.9 mph) and Miguel Sano this season (95.1 mph) — via Baseball Savant. While Stanton and Sano have already achieved unbelievable heights in the exit velocity stratosphere, Judge has done so with an advanced ability to barrel-up baseballs — 5% more than Sano (2017); 1% more than Stanton (2015) — and connect for line drives – roughly 5% more than both Sano (2017) and Stanton (2015). What do we know about line drives? They result in a hit about three times more often than either a fly ball or ground ball. Implying, to some extent, that the crazy high BABIP Judge carries at .420, still has time to come down, but nearly 100 points to the projected .325 level I’ve seen in the industry feels like that “breaking” I talked about way back in paragraph one.

Players with Judge’s 2017 projected .325 BABIP last season include the following…

By now you can instinctively see the difference between Ryan Braun and Jose Abreu, compared to Aaron Judge. The homegrown Yankee talent hits the ball substantially harder and produces more line drives than Braun and Abreu. So why the low BABIP?

It could stem from the one inherent flaw in my optimism regarding Judge; line drive rates take more than a year and a half to stabilize, and we’ve only seen around 300 plate appearances of Judge. Given that in 2016, Judge had a line drive rate of 14% through his very unproductive 95 plate appearances, there is concern that Judge won’t be able to maintain an elite, top-10 BABIP in the league. Contrary is that we’ve heard numerous times Judge is a different hitter. Giving us confidence that reliance on 2016’s now tiny sample isn’t the most astute thing to do. If we take a look at players with over the last three seasons with at least 1500 plate appearances and a BABIP of .350 or better, the 11 names are present through a mix of distinct factors. Six are elite talents: Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman. Three rely on their legs: Starling Marte, Dee Gordon, Lorenzo Cain. One plays in Coors (DJ LeMahieu), and the last is Christian Yelich.

If I split the difference between Judge’s current BABIP and projected BABIP, I’m left with a .373 number that would exceed Paul Goldschmidt’s league-leading .369 from our three year stretch of 2014 to 2016. While it’s easier to bet against this feat over the next two and a half years, an argument in favor of a .370+ BABIP’s possibility hinges on Judge’s exit velocity being legitimate, and the stabilization of his line drive rate around its present 25% mark. Then, I’d have to worry about the other two factors BABIP is notorious for considering, luck and defense, both out of Judge’s control.

All this talk about BABIP and whether Judge can maintain it at an elite level plays into the expectations for his end of season line.

Let’s remind ourselves of what Judge has done to this point in the season and what Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is thinking might follow suit.

Through June 26th – 26 HR, 59 RBI, .330/.443/.693, 3.8 WARP

PECOTA 50th Percentile, Rest of Season – 16 HR, 48 RBI, .251/.343/.470, 2.2 WARP

PECOTA 90th Percentile, Rest of Season – 21 HR, 64 RBI, .291/.389/.545, 4.3 WARP

Am I betting that Judge’s .330 average continues for the rest of the season? No, but I’m not betting on a .251 average either, even with his swing-and-miss tendencies. I wouldn’t consider a BABIP in the .360-.370 window out of the question, which means independent of a change in luck and defense, Judge’s average can realistically sit in the .280-.290 window without the sky falling. This average is more in line with the 90th percentile projection, but my confidence in his batted ball profile and exit velocity plateauing, with even a minor drop, is more optimistic than any projection system is willing to assume.

I’m more than excited to compare Judge’s rest of season projection above, to what actually occurs from June 27th to October 1st. Maybe Judge is a flash in the pan, or maybe he’s bound to be the Anti-Michael Pineda. Outperforming peripherals and soaking up all the glory that comes with it.

Every short, hard-nosed middle infielder is Dustin Pedroia. Every power bat with a strikeout problem is Chris Carter. Every high-ceiling outfielder with the injury bug is Grady Sizemore. The comparisons inevitable because of how we choose to inform people about players they’ve never seen. That is where the inefficiency exists among the baseball community.

When you’re talking baseball with anybody on this site or in the Baseball Prospectus universe, you generally don’t need player comps. There is a good chance that that crowd will know who Kyle Higashioka is or which two players are platooning in left field for the San Francisco Giants. We don’t need every player to be qualified with “a better/worse version of _____”.

When speaking to the general baseball-watching public about a player they’ve never seen, but desire to know about, comparisons are the easiest way to draw an imaginary profile of said player in their minds. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, it’s simply a refined form of communication, which desires to be efficient. Turmoil ensues when the two worlds meet.

If an educated baseball fan hears a comparison between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, their immediate reaction is to cite the 800-game gap in major league playing time or point out the reasons the comparison is wrong. This is a fair point, but what if the comparison is merely to draw a mental image?

Watch any footage of Judge’s swing at the minor league level (like this one) and it’s strikingly similar to Stanton’s at any level (right here). Even if you see discrepancies between the two, the reality is that Judge’s swing is more like Stanton’s than a multitude of other right-handed bats. If you put Stanton in a pool with a plethora of other players at the major league level, more likely than not you’re going to find Judge and Stanton syncing up more than you would expect from all the initial comparison push-back.

Miguel Cabrera’s swing (seen here) is pretty different than either Stanton’s or Judge’s. Cabrera is much more fluid in setting up his hands, syncing his load and lower body earlier as he awaits the pitch, similar, but even less exaggerated than a player like Josh Donaldson’s rhythm (seen here). This comes from a rotational style of hitting, where the hips and lower body are involved more than if a player were to employ a linear style of hitting. Some simple YouTube searching gets you to this exact difference, and explains rotation versus linear swings pretty darn well.

Mookie Betts, as shown in that YouTube-sourced video, hits with this linear approach (here). It’s direct, tends to produce line drives and utilizes much more of the upper body from the hands to the shoulders.

If you were to ask somebody which player pair is more alike — Judge and Betts or Judge and Donaldson — I have a feeling many may lean towards the Blue Jays’ slugger with similar perceived power. But the answer to this question can just as easily be Betts. Going back to our linear versus rotational style of hitting, Judge and Betts both take direct, linear paths to the ball from a similar plane. Their load is quick, simple, and they generate a good amount of their power from hard-hit line drives.

When you venture into performance territory, the comparisons become a whole different story. Take, for example, who Baseball Prospectus currently lists as comparable players for Judge.

I would guess not many people know who 80 percent of these players are. Sure, you might recognize the name Matt Joyce, but did you know that he’s a lefty who signed a two-year, $11 million contract with the Athletics in the offseason? Or that Scott Schebler is actually only 26 years old and produced a 162-game pace of about 2.2 WARP; which would’ve been higher than Albert Pujols and Andrew McCutchen in 2016?

While Judge is making projection models look a bit silly at the moment, the most important thing has nothing to do with the long ball. It’s all about the plate discipline. I’ll spare you the deep dive (which Andrew Gargano has already done), but Judge has gone from a 40-plus percent strikeout player to what seems like a 25 percent strikeout player in one offseason. His swinging strike rate has fallen by nearly ten percentage points, which is astounding for his age, drawing comparisons to one of the most impressive improvements from 2015 to 2016 that I saw —  Kris Bryant, who cut his strikeout rate by eight percentage points and watched his batting average and on-base/slugging percentages migrate north as a result. Judge’s change is in the same realm as Bryant’s, just not yet across a big enough sample size.

As we circle back to our Stanton performance comp, I think I may be coming around to the fact that they aren’t actually that similar. It took Stanton six seasons of 100+ games to post a strikeout rate below 26 percent. Judge is sitting on a 25.4 percent strikeout rate as he heads towards the 70-plate appearance mark this week.

Keep a close eye on this number moving forward. Soon Judge may be the one we’re saying is in a league of his own.

Lead photo: Charles LeClaire / USA Today Sports