Before Sonny Gray became the broken link in an otherwise sturdy chain.

With the renowned fall-off of nearly all pitchers when facing a lineup for the third time in one night, even the casual fan can criticise a Manager’s decision to leave a starter in past the fifth inning with objective evidence. With the strikeout prowess of the Yankees’ bullpen, peripherals suggesting a bit of bad luck early, and the slow starts of Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle (DL), even stronger evidence supporting bullpen reliance will emerge as the Yankees trek towards October.

Severino and Tanaka would headline a Yankees’ playoff rotation. After that, things get interesting. CC Sabathia has more than earned consideration for a spot, but expectations have to be tempered. That brings consideration to Sonny Gray and whether his early struggles are a genuine reason for concern to any Yankees fan already thinking of how many layers are necessary to combat New York’s October chill.

2018 Sonny Gray isn’t a fresh topic. Relevant entries into the saga already exist.

At the beginning of the season, BP Bronx’s very own Derek Albin noticed a change in Gray’s pitch usage, one that aligns itself with the philosophy of so many other pitchers across the league: less fastball, more breaking ball.

Not only more breaking balls but different breaking balls. Gray’s curveball-slider usage this year resembles his early days with Oakland in 2013 when he used his curveball a quarter of the time. The former Vanderbilt product’s tendency to shy away from two-seam fastball usage is most notable versus left-handed hitters, cut in half to 15 percent, coupled with a doubling of his curveball usage to 26 percent. His affinity for hard stuff versus right-handed hitters has remained stable from last year, but this slider-to-curveball flip is also apparent.

The issue? Gray himself might have trouble confirming any of these specific usage alterations. An essential read to understand Gray’s uniqueness was written last year by the venerable Eno Sarris. It cited how unique Gray’s offerings were, highlighting the blur that exists when distinguishing between his curveball and slider. Comparing the visuals of Gray’s breaking pitches to a two-breaking ball arm like Corey Kluber, who has a slider with a more horizontal break to eliminate the majority of classification errors. Below is a quick gif of Gray’s slider and curveball to help visualize what I’m attempting to break down in words.

If we believe what Baseball Prospectus is classifying as Gray’s curveball and slider, we can see why this discrepancy occurs. The vertical break on Gray’s curveball is fantastic, sitting inside the 90th percentile of the league, a feat likely driven by the excellent spin rate earned year to year.

I imagine the philosophy behind Gray’s tinkering comes from the realization of how superb his curveball’s vertical break is and the want to emulate a plus characteristic of his curve by tinkering just enough horizontally to generate slider classification. This is supported by the vertical break on Gray’s “slider” sitting in the 98th percentile of the league for each of the last two years – to the naked eye, it’s easy to mistake it for a hard curveball.

This is part of the thrill with Sonny Gray: accepting his ability to render pitch recognition software periodically useless. But I also suspect his reliance on feel – not having a true distinction between pitches on occasion – creates stretches of struggle, like the rut we’re in right now.

So how does one remain optimistic in the face of poor results? This comes from one of the underlying results within Gray’s overall change: his curveball has been fantastic. Even with the classification errors we’ve already discussed, we can still parse out the effectiveness of this pitch with some reservation given his tendency to tinker.

Gray’s curveball location has been properly at the knees, the pitch’s whiff rate remains above league average, and the two-plane bend he generates is another plus aspect of his unique mix. The Yankees’ intentions of wanting to develop Gray towards more comfort with his breaking ball could have been to capitalize on this pitch’s effectiveness. Unfortunately, in a utopian world, everything else would have remained intact. Including the effectiveness of both his four-seamer and sinker, to his ability to manipulate his fastball grip and generate cut (which is the “cutter” that occurs when you see a fifth pitch disclosed on various outlets).

Rothschild & Co. shouldn’t alter their course six starts into the season, especially with his curveball this strong. Tinkering with Gray’s complementary components, maintaining a focus on this curveball is what I’d love to see the prolonged results of.

His curveball’s effectiveness to left-handed hitters should be enough to prolong success versus that handedness, but versus right-handed hitters, moving away from his slider has caused a key pitch from his 2017 repertoire to fade. This is where tinkering is needed most. Without the ability to regain bite on either his four-seamer or sinker, even if Gray aligns himself with the Yankees’ push for offspeed, nothing effective preempts his heavy dose of breaking balls.

Perhaps Gray’s tinkering has taken the “feel” away from his fastballs. Perhaps Gray needs to tinker more with his fastball, leaning on his cutting alteration more. Perhaps the answer is something previously undiscovered; something a “feel” pitcher needs time to adjust towards or away from.

Whether Gray figures this out, with enough time to make the general public walk back their criticism of a potentially necessary arm for October, remains to be seen. If the Yankees trade for another starter, as the New York Daily News, suggested back in January, grave concern for Gray as a starter might be unnecessary.

The future is bright, even with how cloudy it currently seems.

Top Performers

Scranton: Rob Refsnyder (5-15, 4 R, 2 HR, 2B) Ref’s recent hot streak earned him another cup of coffee in the Bronx and a chance to supplant Ronald Torreyes as utility infielder.

Trenton: Dustin Fowler (9-25, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2B, 3B, SB) Fowler is beginning to recover after a slow start in Double-A.

Tampa: Ian Clarkin (14.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K) His strong performance merited a write-up in Baseball America’s Prospect Report. They mentioned his stuff is undiminished by last season’s elbow the injury, which is an encouraging sign despite his mixed results this year.

Charleston: Thairo Estrada- (9-21, 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 R, 4 RBI) The 5’10 155 lb Estrada has clubbed five home runs in his first 30 games of 2016. He had just four in his previous 135 professional games.  

Notes

• Gary Sanchez, New York’s number three prospect according to BP, received his first career start Friday against Chris Sale and the White Sox. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and was subsequently demoted.
• 24-year-old Chad Green also earned his first big league start this week, a rocky outing Monday against the Diamondbacks in place of the injured Luis Severino. He was optioned back to Triple-A following the 12-2 loss.
• Rob Refsnyder’s 16 game hitting streak ended Friday against the Indianapolis Indians.
• RailRiders beat writer Shane Hennigan tweeted that although Mason Williams is “progressing well,” there is no timetable for his return at the moment. Williams underwent season ending shoulder surgery last August and is currently on the 60-day DL.
• On Wednesday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reported that there was finally an official timetable for James Kaprielian’s recovery from elbow inflammation. No less a source than Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner estimated it would be 4-6 weeks until he was back in action.
• Starting pitchers Dietrich Enns and Eric Ruth were promoted to Triple-A Scranton. Enns went six scoreless innings in his RailRiders’ debut.
• The Yankees traded for 25-year-old Twins righthander J.R. Graham on Saturday. Rated the 63rd best prospect in baseball before the 2013 season, Graham has struggled with injuries and command issues. This kind of high-upside/low-risk pickup has been Cashman’s bread and butter the past few years. Lots still to like here.

The Quote

“He’s still got 80 speed, but he can’t just get away with it anymore.” – A scout cited by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports discussing the base-stealing prowess of top prospect Jorge Mateo.

After swiping 82 bags in 97 chances (84.5%) to lead all minor leaguers last season, Mateo has been caught eight times in 21 attempts (61.9%) in 2016.

The Highlight

It would be hard to find a less likely candidate for a two homer game in the Yankee system than the diminutive Thairo Estrada. There are more toolsy and physically impressive shortstops in the organization, but the scrappy Estrada continues to hold his own against increasingly advanced competition.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USATSI

Chad Green made his major league debut on the mound for the Yankees, and was pitching just fine until a three-run home run by Jake Lamb in the fifth inning spoiled the evening. Lamb’s blast to right-center field broke a 2-2 tie, giving the D-Backs a 5-2 lead en route to a 12-2 victory over New York.

Arizona’s Robbie Ray pitched seven innings of two-run ball, scattering six hits while striking out six Yankees in the process.

Aaron Hicks had two deep fly-outs to the warning track, one to center (4th inning) and one to left (6th inning) before ripping a single up the middle in the ninth. The 4th inning fly-out proved productive as it advanced Beltran to third and Headley to second with just one out. Three hard-hit balls on the night could be a sign Hicks is seeing the ball better after a 2-for-30 (.067) start to the 2016 campaign.

With the loss, the Yankees fall to 4-11 on the road this season, the third-worst road mark in MLB behind Minnesota (4-17) and Cincinnati (3-13).

THE PLAY: Jake Lamb’s 3-run home run to make it 5-2 in the fifth (+.205 WPA)

TOP PERFORMERS

Yankees: Mark Teixeira (3-for-4, 1 run scored)

D-Backs: Robbie Ray (7 IP, 6 hits, 2 earned runs, 6 Ks, 1 BB)

NOTES

– Didi Gregorius went 1-for-4 with an error in his Arizona homecoming after playing 183 games for the D-Backs between 2013–14.

– Chad Green’s final line in his debut: 4 IP, 8 hits, 6 runs (4 earned), 5 Ks, 1 BB, 2 home runs; 79 pitchers, 46 strikes

– Paul Goldschmidt officially welcomed Green to the bigs with a solo home run in the bottom of the first inning, his eighth of the season.

THE HIGHLIGHT: Ellsbury’s triple + error to score and tie it at 2-2

UP NEXT

Tuesday night’s game two match-up features Michael Pineda (1-4, 6.28) against Zack Greinke (3-3, 5.26) in a battle of two under-performing pitchers. Greinke is 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA in 12 career games against the Yankees, his worst mark against any major league team. Meanwhile, the Yankees will once again be in dire need of offense after scoring just three runs in their last three road games.

Photo: Joe Camporeale / USA Today Sports; Video: MLBAM