The lost episode! Last Saturday, EJ and Scott discussed the CC Sabathia deal, and a rumor that the Yankees are still discussing starting pitcher trades.

The Yankees don’t need to move quickly in order to resolve the rotation opening, and general manager Brian Cashman could continue to bide his time over the next few weeks. Why? His fallback option, Sabathia, has made it clear that his preference is to remain in the Bronx, which gives the Yankees plenty of leverage. The front office can now diligently scan the market for not only who could be preferable to Sabathia in 2018, but also who could be a long-term solution. If that search falls through, Sabathia should be waiting. Hence, the rumors regarding the Yankees and Corbin, Cole, Fulmer, and Archer. That isn’t to say Sabathia will wait around forever, as at some point an ultimatum would be expected. Perhaps we’re inching closer to that point knowing that Sabathia has had contact with other clubs, but it’s still early in the offseason.

Even if Sabathia didn’t make it so clear that he wanted to don the pinstripes again in 2018, there are a multitude of reasons for the Yankees to look elsewhere first. First and foremost, for as effective as Sabathia has been in his age 36 and 37 seasons (3.81 ERA and 116 ERA+ in 328.1 IP), it’s fair to question his performance’s sustainability. There just aren’t that many pitchers that thrive at this stage of their careers, so it’s no wonder that all of the trade targets mentioned earlier are 29 and younger. Yes, Sabathia has held up well over the past couple of seasons, but this could be a case where it’s better to part ways a year too soon rather than a season too late.

Durability must be a concern too. It’s not often if ever, a team hastily re-signs a pitcher with Sabathia’s mileage. Sabathia tossed a respectable 179.2 innings in 2016, but dropped to 148.2 frames in 2017, easily the lowest of his career aside from his injury-plagued 2014. At his age, it’s hard to imagine Sabathia reverting to his pre-2017 workload going forward. The likelihood of a pitcher younger than 30, as all of the other potential additions mentioned above are, managing a full season’s innings count is substantially higher than Sabathia’s odds.

Further, the luxury tax has been the crux of this offseason, and Sabathia’s free agency is one piece of the puzzle. Sabathia could earn up to $15 million on a one-year deal, which would eat up much of the roughly $30 million cushion remaining. He wouldn’t break the bank, as there would still be some wiggle room, but alternatives like Fulmer and Archer are more budget-friendly. Fulmer will make nearly the league minimum in 2018, while Archer is in the midst of a team-friendly contract that would only result in a $4.25M hit to the luxury tax payroll computation. Corbin and Cole are cost conscious options too, albeit a pushing $8M to 9M in arbitration forecasts. In other words, it’ll be much more difficult to obtain a suitable second and/or third baseman in conjunction with Sabathia compared to the other options noted.

There’s a lot to consider quantitatively, from statistics to payroll implications, but there’s more to the Sabathia dilemma than that. His sentimental value simply cannot be ignored. He’s a leader in the clubhouse, a fan favorite, and has been a franchise staple for the better part of a decade. That means a lot to many people, from teammates to fans. Yet, (almost) all of that has to go out the window from the front office’s perspective. The clubhouse aspect is important, as ruffling feathers internally would not be a good outcome, but fan sentiment and past history cannot solely dictate future contract terms. The Yankees are in the business of winning, thus finding a younger pitcher, preferably with multiple years of control, puts the Yankees in a far better position to win for years to come. Sabathia can certainly help the team win in 2018, but that’s likely it. Fans can and will move on from losing a favorite player and teammates will gravitate toward new leaders. This is a difficult part of a front office’s duties, but a necessary one.

All of the logic that the Yankees are applying while trying to improve the rotation doesn’t mean Sabathia won’t be back, of course. He’s just not priority number one, at least not at this time. Had he not cornered himself by stating his preference, perhaps Cashman wouldn’t be as comfortable letting the market unfold, though there were already reasons for the front office to hold off anyway. While it’s refreshing to hear Sabathia’s desire to remain with the Yankees, it’s reassuring that emotions don’t get in the way of sound decision making for the Yankees’ front office. That’s why a plebeian like me writes about baseball and doesn’t negotiate contracts because I would have re-upped Sabathia a month ago.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

May 26 vs. Toronto

Here are the pitches Sabathia used.

You will notice that he’s completely abandoned his four-seam fastball. In fact, according to Brooks Baseball, Sabathia hasn’t used his four-seamer this entire month. He’s relied on his sinker, slider, cutter and changeup. During Thursday’s game, he used his sinker the most (41 percent), followed by his slider (25 percent), cutter (22 percent) and change (12 percent).

And how successful were those pitches? He struck out three batters with his sinker, two on his cutter and two on his slider. No one reached base on his cutter or slider, and both base hits were off his sinker. Both strike outs off his slider were against lefty Michael Saunders who struck swinging in the second and third.

Another thing that worked in Sabathia’s favor on Thursday was the way he mixed his pitches. The heat also seemed to help him. Sabathia has said in the past that he prefers warmer weather and that he helps him get loose. He hit some of his highest numbers on the radar all season on Thursday.

He was averaging 91.5 mph on his sinker with a high of 93.9 mph.

May 20 vs. Oakland

Sabathia had a strong performance his first start off the disabled list against Oakland. He lasted six innings, gave up one earned run on three hits, walked a batter and struck out a season high of eight. Sabathia relied on his sinker, throwing it 39 percent of the time. And on that day, his pitches were averaging between 80-89 mph, but he did a good job of mixing and matching, and using his split and cutter the same amount (22 percent).

The A’s whiffed against Sabathia 13 times that day: five times on the sinker, four on the change, three on the slider and one on the cutter. Some were multiple-strikeout victims on the day; Marcus Semien and Stephen Vogt went down looking and swinging while Billy Butler went down swinging both times.

Butler went down first on a slider in the third inning, and on a sinker in a sixth. Sabathia only threw sinkers in that at bat and Butler chased three out of the four.

May 4 vs. Baltimore

This was the last start before Sabathia went on the disabled list and it was a good one. He pitched seven innings, gave up six hits, didn’t surrender a run, walked two and struck out six.

During this start, CC spread the wealth so to speak, not relying on one pitch much more than the others. As he’s done all month, he threw more sinkers (29 percent), his cutter was second at (27 percent), followed by the slider (22 percent) and the change (21 percent).

He also spread the wealth with his strikeouts. Only Caleb Joseph struck out twice, but all six strikeouts that Sabathia generated that day were of the swinging variety. Four of the six were on his change, one on the cutter and on a slider—Joseph’s second strikeout of the day. Actually, Joseph only swung at one pitch that at bat: the slider.

It’s exciting and heartwarming to see CC Sabathia doing what he’s doing right now. So many people buried him last season, and after what he went through in the offseason, the results we’re seeing on the field were almost unimaginable before the season began. If he keeps this up, Sabathia could reclaim the title of ace of the Yankees’ pitching staff.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Basically, because of bad contracts the Yankees have given out in the past, they are categorically unwilling to give out bad contracts, or contracts at all, in the present. In fact, the Yankees are probably the only team in baseball (except for maybe the Angels) that has so many payroll albatrosses we can argue over who holds the most damaging contract on the roster.

So without further ado, here are the candidates for worst contract on the Yankees.

Contestant 1 – Alex Rodriguez

Years remaining: Two
Dollars remaining: $40 million
WARP in 2015: 2.5
WARP over past three years: 3.2
Age: 40

Just a year ago, our first contestant not only looked like a frontrunner for worst contract on the Yankees, but also worst contract in baseball. But an emphatically solid .250/.356/.486 campaign boosted A-Rod’s deal from disastrous to merely inconvenient. In fact, it’s not far fetched to say that, based on the value of a win on the open market, Rodriguez’s play was actually worth his pay in 2015. Of course, A-Rod has two more years left on his deal, and given his age, it seems unlikely he’ll ever again be worth three wins. This contract may no longer be a catastrophe, but it’s still not one the Yankees are happy to be carrying.

Contestant 2 – Mark Teixeira

Years remaining: One
Dollars remaining: $22.5 million
WARP in 2015: 3.0
WARP over past three years: 3.3
Age: 35

Like A-Rod, our second contestant entered 2015 with a contract that appeared worthless, and like A-Rod, he had a nice year in 2015 and more or less earned his pay. Teixeira has been about as valuable over the past three years as Rodriguez (even though the latter missed all of 2014) but has two things going for him by comparison: He’s five years younger than A-Rod and is under contract for half as long. It’s not too hard to imagine Tex putting together another three-WAR campaign and riding out his Yankee deal as a productive player.

Contestant 3 – CC Sabathia

Years remaining: Two
Dollars remaining: $50 million
WARP in 2015: 0.4
WARP over past three years: 1.0
Age: 35

Things once looked so promising for our third contestant’s contract. Over the first four years on Sabathia’s seven-year $161 million deal, the left-hander averaged 32 starts and 226 innings a year, pitching to a 3.22 ERA (3.28 FIP). But a one-year extension and a dramatic decline in performance have made Sabathia a replacement player and his contract a massive burden. Unlike with our first two contestants, we have no reason to assume Sabathia will contribute any value over the remainder of his time in pinstripes. For all the fuss about A-Rod’s deal, Sabathia is actually a much worse player owed much more money.

Contestant 4 – Jacoby Ellsbury

Years remaining: Five
Dollars remaining: $110,714,285 (including $5 buyout)
WARP in 2015: 0.6
WARP over past three years: 8.4
Age: 32

While our first three contestants are all old guys whose monster contracts are almost done, Ellsbury is something scarier: a player with five years and a boatload of money remaining but rapidly diminishing value. The outfielder’s 2015 was about as bad as it gets, with injuries limiting him to 111 games and a meager .257/.318/.345 slash line mixing with uninspiring defense to produce 0.6 WARP. Five more years of that lack of production is scary to consider. On the other hand, Ellsbury has more upside than the other contestants. If he can return to his 2013-14 levels of output (3.9 WARP/year) for the next couple years this contract won’t look bad at all. It’s the worst-case scenario that makes this one so worrisome.

The winner

So who has the worst, most damaging contract on the Yankees? Well, Teixeira has only one year left, so he’s out, and A-Rod is owed less money than Sabathia and remains a better player. So our contest comes down to two very different players with two very different financial situations. Ellsbury is a slightly built center fielder with five years left on his deal and a high ceiling. Sabathia is a burly starting pitcher with two seasons remaining and little hope of ever again being a good player.

Here’s why Ellsbury’s contract is worse: Even if he bounces back from 2015 with a solid season or two, the end of his deal won’t go well. On a pure WARP-per-year basis Sabathia will likely be worse, but Ellsbury might submit three or four sub-average seasons while clogging the Yankees’ payroll for half a decade. When Teixeira, Rodriguez, Sabathia and others leave to make room for the next crop of expensive big-name stars, Ellsbury will still be around, most likely looking more like a bad investment by the day.

Lead photo: Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports

Yes, the Yankees are going to be in the race next year.  Their off-season hasn’t quite signaled that they’re in ‘win now’ mode, but they do hope their new acquisitions will make significant contributions next year.  Yet despite their intentions to win in 2016, the organization’s future plans remain unclear.  What does the Yankees’ future hold after this season?  No massive roster overhaul has happened yet, but some moves have the undertones of an impending retooling period.

For years, the Yankees have been considered an ‘old team.’  While their roster age technically isn’t old—2015’s team ranked 15^th in the league at 27.1 years of age—their reputation holds some truth.  This is because the majority of the team’s biggest contributors are veterans.  Of the eighteen players with more than one win above replacement, ten of them are over 30, and nine are over 31.  Even more surprisingly, just one hitter under 31—Didi Gregorious—was worth more than a win above replacement.  For contrast, here is the same data for each AL East team.

While the Yankees are perfectly average in terms of total roster age, weighing their age based on performance shows that they’re a very top-heavy team; the majority of their production comes from older players.  When looking past 2016, the issue of graying players really starts to emerge. While some fans may be looking forward to the day Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Carlos Beltran are no longer on the team’s payroll, it would be foolish to push aside the value that these players bring. Grizzled veterans have long been the foundation of the Yankees, and once they’re gone, they will be sorely missed.

The sheer amount of value leaving the team in the near future is hard to comprehend, and even harder to replace. The farm system is only so deep, and the next two free agent classes are projected to be very thin.  To start, Mark Teixiera will be off the roster next season.  Sure, it’ll be nice to have $23 million laying around, but Teixeira was the most valuable Yankee last year in terms of WAR, earning a 3.8 mark, despite playing in just under 70% of the team’s games. Carlos Beltran and his $15 million will also be off the books after this season, and while he’s a zero in the outfield, he was the best bat in the lineup in the second half, leading the team with a 169 wRC+. Coming off the payroll after the 2017 year will be CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez.  Sabathia won’t be missed, but Rodriguez was the third-best bat on the team with a 129 wRC+, and prior to his late-season collapse he was the best hitter on the club. His 144 wRC+ led the team and was the seventh-highest in the American League.

There are two important things to note here. First is the 8.7 WAR (from last year) that will be absent from the roster. That’s 49% of all of last year’s value, gone.  That said, there’s also the salary relief and the extra spending money that Yankees will gain. In the short term, it will be quite hard to compete; simply building through the 2016 and 2017 free agent classes isn’t a feasible idea. Success from prospects can certainly ease the losses, but the Yankees lack impact players that are close to the majors.  According to Baseball Prospectus’ top-10 Yankees prospects, just three players that are projected to be starters in their prime will be big-league ready by the 2017 season.  In addition, it can sometimes take several years for prospects to adjust and reach their ceiling. The farm system has some serious talent, but much of it won’t be ready when veterans start leaving the team.

Like it or not, there’s a good chance the Yankees will use the 2016 and 2017 seasons to rebuild.  On the bright side, the Yankees will shed over $41 million from their payroll next winter, and after the 2017 season, another $46 million will mercifully be gone.

It seems that the Yankees are setting up for an acquisition period in 2018.  At that point, most of the Yankees’ best prospects—like Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge—will be approaching their prime, while a lot of the expensive veterans will depart.  The Yankees won’t be overly young, but at the same time they won’t be too top heavy.  Although some older players like Jacoby Ellsbury will likely still be around and may be overpaid, the roster will be relatively cost-effective. Analysts are already raving over what 2018’s free agent class could be—Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Dee Gordon, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Garrett Richards, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Michael Brantley, Adam Jones, and Shelby Miller are all set to hit the market, and David Price, Jason Heyward and Clayton Kershaw would be available should they exercise their optout clauses.

This culmination of events could be the lead-up to the most legendary Yankees off-season of all-time, with a cheap roster, an open wallet, and tons of talent. It’s easy to start gushing about a free agent class that’s three years away, but at the same time, Yankee fans can’t forget about what will occur before then.  Nothing’s happened yet to indicate a retool, but the Yankees did come very close to dealing Andrew Miller for prospects and, despite obvious needs, have refused to sign players long term deals in free agency.  It’s not worth panicking over yet, but Yankee fans should keep in mind that this may be their last season as serious contenders until 2018.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports

If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:

Masahiro Tanaka
Luis Severino
Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia

Ivan Nova
Bryan Mitchell

Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that’s not even touching on the fact that he’ll be pitching for the first time since checking into rehab last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?

Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.

With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price prohibitively high, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.

Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team

Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.

• Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves

The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.

• Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers

Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.

• Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds

This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.

Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys

The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.

• Henderson Alvarez, free agent

The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.

• Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are supposedly discussing trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.

• Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels

Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.

Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?

The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.

• Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already reportedly turned down a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.

• Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians

The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.

• Zack Wheeler, New York Mets

The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.

Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Remove all context from Yankees-Mets on Sunday night and you would have thought you were witnessing playoff baseball at Citi Field.

This felt different. This was the culmination of a season-long journey the Mets and their supporters have navigated through for months on end.

Under the lights. A nation of baseball fans watching. Their ace on the mound. Now, tied 1-1 in a weekend series with the Yankees, a chance to momentarily take back ownership of their city.

The Yankees confronted the challenge.

With a chance to pull within 2.5 games of the Blue Jays in the AL East, CC Sabathia and the New York bats dug themselves out of an early hole and showed a raucous crowd to the exits.

Sabathia shined, yielding just one run on five hits over six innings after a 32-pitch first. He struck out seven hitters.

“Everything just got better,” said manager Joe Girardi. “He really settled down and threw the ball extremely well. It was down in the zone. He used his changeup really effectively.”

He’s sporting a 1.04 ERA and .190 BAA in his last three outings.

Sabathia threw 14 changeups and 17 sliders in the game. After an RBI double from David Wright in the first inning, just one of five balls put in play on either one of the pitches went for a hit.

He had five whiffs on eight swings with his change.

“It was huge for me,” Sabathia said. “That change that [Wright] hit was up. I was just being conscious and making sure that I got my offspeed pitches where they needed to go.”

Maybe more encouraging was the performance of Jacoby Ellsbury, who was so instrumental in the team’s hot start. He’s seven for his last 16 after snapping out of an o-for-22 skid.

Ellsbury went 3-for-5 with an RBI and stole just his second base since Aug. 24. He and Brett Gardner combined to score four runs.

“That’s a one-two punch that anyone would love to have,” said Dustin Ackley, who hit a three-run home run in his second straight start at the keystone for New York. “When you have those guys getting hits and getting on base, it makes it tough on other teams. They’ve got to think … it can be a long day.”

On this crisp, windy night in Queens, in an unfriendly environment, the Yankees were able to settle themselves after an uneasy first inning. Hitters worked counts, beat out throws, and hit the ball hard.

The resilience and cohesiveness of this unit is often played down. A surge of neophytes have dropped the team’s average age to 28, which is around the median average age for big league clubs. Before the season, it was over 29 and inching towards the top 10.

They’re energizing the veteran players on the roster, and the veterans are giving back.

“Tonight, [Sabathia] was able go out there and fight,” said Carlos Beltran. “That’s a great message to the younger guys. You can look up to a guy like that and understand that right now, this time of the year, you’re going to feel sore. But this is this time of the year when you can’t focus on that. You’ve got to focus on performing.”

Greg Bird has 20 HRs in 115 total games this season. Ackley has hit himself into the lineup. CC Sabathia is finally healthy, confident, and effective.

This is the look of a playoff ballclub.

(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso- USA Today Sports)

They will run into a Mets squad that’d won eight in a row before dropping their last two games to Miami, totaling just three runs across the pair of contests. After a wild offensive binge, they were held in check by he-of-4.22 ERA Adam Conley and he-of-Tom-Koehler Tom Koehler.

The Yankees will throw a bit more at the Amazin’s than Conley, Koehler, and Justin Nicolino.

C.C. Sabathia is fresh off his best outing of the season, tossing 111 pitches over 6.2 innings, and yielding just three hits, two walks, and striking out six.

There’s reason to believe that can continue.

Sabathia’s Adj Runs ranks fifth in the bigs at 17.48. This means for a myriad of reasons – catcher framing, temperature, quality of hitters to name a few – over 17 extra runs have been added to his ledger.

The biggest contributor to this number is ballpark factor. Sabathia has surrendered 9.51 additional runs due to the stadium he’s pitching in, which ranks ninth in the major leagues.

It’s no surprise to see a Yankees starter on this list given the nature of Yankee Stadium, which produces home runs like DJ Khaled produces hits (another one!).

That said, Sabathia clearly has been one of the pitchers hit the hardest at Yankee Stadium. His mark is right there with Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis, who DFS players know to automatically stack against every five days.

The other two Yankees pitchers with the highest such marks are the other two pitchers scheduled to start against the Mets – Michael Pineda (6.41), and Masahiro Tanaka (5.62).

To state what you probably already know, Citi Field is a lot more friendly to pitchers than Yankee Stadium. It’s just that these three pitchers have suffered the most from pitching with short fences, especially Sabathia. There’s reason to have confidence in the Yankees’ rotation.

While the pitching should hold up it’s also important to note the Yankees’ league-leading Guillen Number (% of runs via the home run) of 47.94. The Yankees will dodge the formidable Jacob deGrom (4.31 WARP), but still have to face Matt Harvey (3.26) and Noah Syndergaard (2.20)

When it comes to balls in play, the Mets and Yankees have had similar years. They rank 28th and 29th in Ground Ball % and BABIP, and 4th and 3rd in Fly Ball %, respectively. They only differ in line drives, where the Mets rank in the middle of the pack and the Yankees are in the bottom tier.

That would seem to back up the fact that the Mets will have the advantage at Citi Field. That, and three sellout crowds.

Cespedes vs. A-Rod. Conforto vs. Bird. Clippard vs. Betances. Familia vs. Miller. These two teams stack up quite well, and we should be in for a fun three-day ride.

(Photo: Kim Klement-USA Today Sports)

That team was the last Yankee team to end a season under .500 and also the last to not have a future Hall of Famer.

A quick history: The Yankees (then the Highlanders) launched in 1903 with two future Hall of Fame players: Willie Keeler and Jack Chesbro. That duo departed following the 1909 season, leaving the Yankees without a future Hall of Famer from 1910-12. Frank Chance passed through in 1913 and 1914, followed by Dazzy Vance in 1915, then Frank Baker from 1916-19, bridging the gap to Babe Ruth and the rest of Murderer’s Row.

The Yankees then had at least one Hall of Famer appear in a game in every season through 1968, when Mickey Mantle retired.

After a brief Hall-of-Famer drought, Catfish Hunter arrived in the Bronx in 1975 to start a new streak, which lasted until 1989, when Dave Winfield missed the entire season with a back injury. After Winfield left a year later, the Yankees played 1991 and 1992 without a future Hall of Famer (if Don Mattingly or Bernie Williams makes it via the Veteran’s Committee one day, never mind). Then Wade Boggs arrived to hold us over to Jeter and Rivera, who are not yet official Hall of Famers but might as well be.

Entering this year, the Yankees’ franchise has been in existence for 112 seasons and had a future Hall of Famer on its roster in 100 of them (1910-12, 1969-75, 1989, 1991-92 being the exceptions).

But what about this year?

The Yankees have been so stacked with stars over the last decade that it seems inconceivable they could have no future Hall of Famers on the current roster, but when you look at the names and the BBWAA’s recent history you realize that, fair or not, there are no locks.

Let’s go through the Yankees’ potential Hall of Famers one by one, from least to most likely to be enshrined, and assess the chances the 2015 squad joins the list of Hall-of-Famer-free Yankees teams.

Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

These guys are good players who have had nice careers, but all are on the wrong side of 30 and not even halfway to Hall of Fame milestones and value-stat cutoffs. It would take a highly unusual late-career surge for any of these three to have a shot at the Hall.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Highly unlikely

Mark Teixeira

Before this season, Tex looked like a long-shot, most likely destined for the proverbial Hall of Very Good. But after a huge bounce-back 2015 campaign, the 35-year-old should reach 400 home runs by the end of the season (he’s at 394 now) and set his sights on 500 with a few more good years.

Teixeira’s numbers already compare favorably to Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda, and with a few more strong seasons and that 500 home run milestone, the first baseman might have a shot.

Then again, as a relatively one-dimensional first-baseman who played his prime in a high-offense era, even 500 home runs might not be enough. And the odds of Teixeira replicating 2015 too far into the future? Not so good.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

CC Sabathia

In a just world, Sabathia would be a borderline Hall of Famer, thanks to four top-five Cy Young finishes, a 117 ERA+ over nearly 3,000 innings, a 55 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) that puts him right on the edge of Hall standards.

But instead of a just world, we live in one where should-be shoo-ins Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina receive less than 40 percent of the BBWAA vote and should-be-borderline-candidate Kevin Brown is bounced on his first ballot with less than five percent of the vote.

According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which weighs peak and career value, Sabathia is clustered with Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana, and Tim Hudson in Hall worthiness.

Sabathia has as good a Hall argument as any of those candidates, but given the coming influx of borderline starting pitchers and the BBWAA’s hard-lining on Schilling and Mussina, Sabathia won’t make it without reversing his career’s downward spiral and adding to his resume.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

Carlos Beltran

Beltran will likely become a cause celebre for the sabermetric community. His career WAR is almost 70, per Baseball-Reference, territory that typically earns you automatic induction. Per JAWS, Beltran is the eighth best center fielder of all-time, without even taking into account his exceptional postseason performance.

That said, Beltran could suffer from having been good at many things and historically great at none. He’s 17 home runs away from 400 for his career, he’s hit only .280 lifetime, he’s finished top-five in MVP voting only once.

With a .280/.355/.491 slash line, 121 OPS+, 383 homers, 311 stolen bases and a good defensive record at a premium position, Beltran should be shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Instead it seems more likely he’ll hang around the ballot and need a groundswell to gain induction.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Somewhat likely

Alex Rodriguez

Call me crazy, but I’m fairly confident A-Rod gets into Cooperstown one day, along with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and all the rest of the alleged steroid cheats.

The BBWAA won’t do it, clearly, but one day when memories of the early-2000s PED outrage have faded, someone will look back on the gaudy numbers sitting outside of the Hall and decide to do something.

It may take 30 years for this prediction to bear out, but A-Rod will eventually have a plaque, and the 2015 Yankees will, retrospectively, have had a Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Likely

Lead photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

As is the case with many great players, all three eventually made their way to the Yankees: A-Rod in 2003 via trade, Beltrán as a free agent last year, and Sabathia as a free agent in 2009. Despite those flashes A-Rod showed during April, none of these three players can still claim to be superstars anymore. Rodriguez, Beltrán, and CC Sabathia are dealing with eroding skills, chronic injuries, and are both deep into the post-prime decline portion of their careers. They will all likely retire when their current contracts run out.

But what if we didn’t have to wait that long? What if as one of his first tweaks to the MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, Rob Manfred gave each team a contract mulligan similar to the amnesty provision that exists in the NBA? And what if he instituted this policy tomorrow? Which of these three players would you lobby Brian Cashman to cut from the 2015 Yankees?

Amnesty Clause Terms:

• Each team is eligible to release one player currently under contract onto waivers, immediately voiding the players contract.
• The team would NOT be required to pay the remaining dollars owed to the player (different than the NBA) and the contract would NOT contribute towards the luxury tax ceiling.
• The luxury tax threshold is $189M for 2015 and the Yankees current payroll is $217M.  Cutting any of the three this year wouldn’t get the team under the tax line but could in future seasons.

Two months ago your immediate reaction probably would have been “A-Rod, A-Rod, a thousand times A-Rod!”  But A-Rod’s shown he still has some thump left in his bat and is probably the most productive player of the three right now.  So before we throw A-Rod down amnesty river and call it a day, let’s give this serious consideration.

The Contracts

The main benefit of this hypothetical amnesty provision is the money it would allow teams to save. So which of these three contracts is the worst?

Ok, so you’re not wrong on this front. A-Rod’s contract will always be the worst. The 10-year, $275M contract he signed in 2008 was ahead of its time, and by that I mean even inflation couldn’t prevent that contract from looking really, really awful six years in. And the $61M accounted for above doesn’t include the $6M the Yankees are refusing to pay him for hitting #660 a week ago or the $6M he could be owed if he reaches 700, 714, 755, or 762. At best, the Yankees owe Mr. Rodriguez only $61M to be their designated hitter for the next three seasons, though if he’s able to catch Ruth, Aaron, or Bonds in that time he’ll be worth every penny. The third and final year of the deal is the main issue at hand – it’s going to be difficult to stomach paying a 41-year old $20M to play DH two years from now.

CC Sabathia signed his contract during the splurge before 2009 that also netted the team Mark Teixeira and AJ Burnett. The 7-year, $161M contract stood as the largest contract given to a pitcher until Felix Hernandez’s deal four years later, which shows just how much the Yankees wanted CC. And for a few years he was worth even more than the $23.5M AAV of the contract, netting over 18 WAR during the first three years of the deal. The problem with the contract in retrospect is how the money was allocated. Instead of front-loading the contract to pay a premium during CC’s prime, the Yankees spread the money out evenly throughout the seven years. He has and will receive at least $23M until the end of the deal, and now the Yankees are left with a hefty $53M bill for his age 34 – 36 seasons.

Beltrán’s contract isn’t an albatross by any measure so the contract is not the main issue with him. Sure he’s not playing like a $15M per year player anymore but it’s the Yankees for God’s sake – they’d probably pay $15M for a years-worth supply of eggplant calzones.

Worst Contract: Alex Rodriguez

On-Field Production

On the open market, the going rate for a win above replacement these days is generally agreed to be somewhere around $7M. By that measure for the team to break even, A-Rod needs to average about 3 WAR per year, CC over 3.5 WAR per year, and Beltran a little over 2 WAR per year for the remainder of their contracts. Beltrán has the lowest performance threshold but in this case that doesn’t matter. I doubt any of the trio will play up to that figure but who will underperform the most?  Let’s take a look at what each player has done over the last few years on the field.

Alex Rodriguez

To get a sufficient sample of A-Rod’s recent history you have to go all the way back to 2012, his last full season of baseball. While he’s been on the field since then he hasn’t been a superstar, but he’s proving to be a valuable bat and still an above-average hitter. You could certainly make a case he’s been the best Yankee hitter in 2015, and considering they’ve been a top-ten offense so far that’s incredible from a 39-year-old. Shifting him permanently to DH is a good move to prevent deterioration and if he keeps up some semblance of his current production it’s entirely possible that he’s worth a good portion of 3 WAR/year for the rest of his contract.

Carlos Beltrán

On the heels of a nine-game hitting streak, Carlos Beltrán upped his 2015 batting average to .234 this week.  Woo!  In other news, he should not be playing right field. He’s a poor fielder by most defensive metrics and the negative bWAR is mostly due to his bad defense – he has 0.2 oWAR as a Yankee. He would be better employed as a designated hitter at this point in his career, but Chase Headley and Mark Teixeira’s presence on the team forced A-Rod to DH, leaving Beltran to “patrol” right field. Additionally, his extended slump to start the year had everyone lose faith in his ability to hit anymore and calling for his head. PECOTA expects a decent rebound to about league average hitting for the remainder of the year but it wouldn’t surprise me if his career .692 OPS in pinstripes is the new normal for Carlos.

CC Sabathia

For most of his career, CC Sabathia was a power pitcher whose repertoire was built around a 95-mph fastball. Since 2013, his fastball velocity has steadily dropped and his ERA has steadily risen. Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, there are a number of formerly great pitchers in recent memory  who’ve experienced this same abrupt loss in velocity and as a result struggled. For Halladay it happened late in his career and after some chronic injury problems, he called it quits. Lincecum and Weaver were younger and were forced to fundamentally change the way they pitch. Sabathia is somewhere in between – he’s 34 right now and three years into his decline. He’s not even pitching at a league average clip anymore and will likely hover around replacement level until he’s bought out a year and a half from now, a large problem for a guy still owed $53M.

Most Likely to Underperform: CC Sabathia

Replacement Options

A-Rod is officially a full-time designated hitter now. DH used to mean something but in today’s MLB the role is mostly filled by old guys, regulars in need of a break, or a bench platoon. As I alluded to in a previous section, the Yankees would probably follow suit and make Carlos Beltrán their full-time DH in A-Rod’s stead, creating an opening in right field permanently for Chris Young. The long term solution in right field will hopefully be Aaron Judge, the Yankees hulkish prospect currently tearing up Double-A in Trenton.

Cutting Carlos Beltrán would result in the same exact scenario outlined with A-Rod. But Beltrán is the worse player right now so replacing him would be less harmful to the team.

Taking Sabathia out of the rotation right now would be troublesome. Tanaka is still a question mark and with the recent elbow injury to Chase Whitley, Chris Capuano is no longer just an extra starter, so the team would likely turn to latin pop superstar Esmil Rogers (Editor’s note: or Bryan Mitchell) in the short term. The long term solution to cutting Sabathia would be to use the money owed him to lure in a younger, better soon-to-be free agent pitcher. Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Zack Grienke (probably not, but maybe), Johnny Cueto, and David Price are all free agents this offseason and some of them could even become available at the trade deadline. Replacing CC Sabathia’s innings-eating with an ace within the next year is a huge potential upgrade for the team.

Best Replacement Option: Carlos Beltrán (short-term), CC Sabathia (long-term)

Injury History

A-Rod’s hip is probably bionic by now, which means this might be possible, but he could also lose permanent function of his legs altogether at any moment. The positives are (1) he hasn’t gotten hurt yet, and (2) he is no longer playing the field. The move should improve his durability, though I was hoping to see more of A-Rod’s adventures at first base.

Carlos Beltrán’s injury history is staggering and impressive – indirectly it may even keep him out of the hall of fame. In an injury competition he usually comes out on top.

CC Sabathia made only eight starts last year before having season-ending knee surgery to remove bone spurs but prior to that he was Mr. Reliable. He’d started no fewer than 28 games in a season since coming up for the Cleveland Indians as a 20-year-old.  Having a generally “balky knee” these days isn’t ideal but for a 300-pound man after 14 straight years of injury-free pitching it’s hardly surprising.

Most Likely to Get Injured: Carlos Beltrán forever and always

Fan Perspective

The final category is the most subjective, but the basic premise is “How much would you care if he got cut?”

Alex Rodriguez, the fans, and the media have had their differences. In New York he always played second banana to Jeter from a popularity standpoint, even though his numbers during most of those years were downright gaudy. The steroiding and re-steroiding forever tarnished A-Rod’s credibility as much as the fire hydrant in front of Tiger Woods’ house damaged his. Despite this, he’s the default face of the franchise at this point. Without him, people might not hate the Yankees as much. And what is baseball if people don’t hate the Yankees?

Carlos Beltrán is the new guy. He doesn’t have a huge, boisterous personality and hasn’t really endeared himself to fans on or off the field. Beltrán joined the team as a 37-year-old and never had a vintage year in pinstripes so there’s no real feeling of attachment to him.

CC Sabathia is the most likeable guy of the three. He had a few great years, got a ring with the team, and he’s been an all-around superb Yankee since he came here. The organization feels a strong sense of loyalty to him.

Easiest to Break Up With: Carlos Beltrán

The Verdict: CC Sabathia

Before writing this article I bounced the amnesty provision idea off two other people and asked what they would do if they were Brian Cashman in this scenario. One said he would cut A-Rod, the other Beltrán, and I said CC Sabathia. I don’t think any of the three is especially wrong here, but each choice represents a different school of thought.

By amnestying A-Rod, the team would be cutting ties with the most productive of the three players. The move would sacrifice success in the present for flexibility in the 2016 offseason. It’d allow Brian Cashman to purge his backlog of terrible contracts all at once (Teixeira comes off the books in 2016 too) and dive into the 2017 offseason with an open checkbook ready to treat himself. But the Yankees aren’t a team known to postpone contending and keeping A-Rod would give them the best chance to win before 2016.

Beltrán would be the right choice if his contract was on the same level as the other two. He’s the worst player of the three and nearly 150 games into his tenure with the Yankees, it’s getting hard to call his lack of production a slump as opposed to simply reality. Cutting him also seems like the easiest decision of the three. Beltrán hasn’t done anything to deserve our loyalty, Chris Young seems like a decent replacement, and he’s going to retire after his contract is up anyways – cutting him would be the baseball equivalent of euthanasia. But the money isn’t that wasteful and the Yankees will see what they can get out of him this year and next.

But the right choice would be to cut CC Sabathia.  He’s the right combination of costly, unproductive, and expendable for me.  With the 2017 buyout, his contract is a year shorter than A-Rod’s but he’ll cost just $8M less.  He’s going on 50 starts now allowing more than half of a run per inning.  And the thought of adding David Price to a rotation already featuring Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda makes my heart race.

Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA Today Sports