EJ, Derek and Stacey talk about managerial interviewee Carlos Beltran and whether the Yankees should go with a six man rotation if they sign Shohei Ohtani.

Now consider what goes into being so good at hitting a baseball that one can do it at a professional level. Then, consider how good you’d have to be to do it in the majors. Then consider the skills necessary to have a Hall of Fame-level stretch of success.

To reach the Hall, a player needs to be consistently good at hitting for about 17-20 years. An athlete’s body is much easier to wrangle at 22 than it is at 39. Many physical adjustments must be made, along with compensations for the injuries that take their toll along the long road to advanced age.

This, in short, is why it’s so impressive that Carlos Beltran is still hitting the daylights out of the ball. Beltran is 38-years-old, and has been in the bigs since he was 21. Since he broke in with Kansas City in 1998, Beltran has supplied 67.1 WARP and a .293 TAv. Once one of the more brilliant outfield defenders in the game, Beltran was a two-way threat of the highest order. His 20o6 campaign with the Mets — a 9.7 WARP, 41-homer rampage — is one of the best seasons ever put together by a member of that team.

The signing of the then-37-year-old Beltran before the 2014 season seemed like a risky endeavor. He proceeded to hit .233/.301/.402 and realize every fan’s worst fear. The Yankees had clearly been too hasty in seeking to replace the offensive production lost in Robinson Cano’s move to Seattle. Not only that, but Beltran’s old age and decreased mobility left him woefully ill prepared to track down balls in the outfield.

The good news is that Beltran bounced back from an offensive standpoint in 2015. A .260 TAv jumped to .280, and 94 hits to 132. Now in 2016, Beltran has been one of the team’s most important hitters in the early going.

Though it’s very unsustainable, Beltran has hit a whopping .351/.368/.649 in his first 38 plate appearances out of the gate. In a time of hardship for the run-scoring arm of the Yankees, Beltran has been an oasis in the middle of the Gobi Desert. Alex Rodriguez has struggled mightily and the team as a whole has largely failed to cash in when runners are in scoring position.

As he always has, Beltran is crushing both righty and lefty pitching as one of the better switch-hitters in the league. Against right-handers, Beltran is hitting .313/.333/.563. Against lefties, he’s hit .444 in 9 plate appearances. Regression is practically screaming to bang down the door and sink its claws into Beltran. For now, though, Yankees fans will just enjoy the ride.

Beltran has said that he hopes to continue playing once this season and his contract with New York are through. PECOTA projects a .271 TAv and 19 more home runs from here until the end of the year, and if that comes to pass, it’s not hard to imagine and AL team picking him up to serve as their designated hitter for a year or two. Eventually, like all good things, Beltran’s career must come to an end. When it does, he will be a likely member of the Hall of Fame. Until then, the Yankees will continue to enjoy his bat in the middle of their lineup.

Lead photo: Noah K. Murray / USA Today Sports

The Yankees offense scored early and often on Astros starter Collin McHugh, who allowed six runs (five earned) in just one third of an inning. New York scored three runs in the second and three more in the third to take a 12-5 lead after three.

Starlin Castro went 4-for-5 with one run scored and five RBI while Mark Teixeira went 2-for-4 with two runs and four RBI. Both Castro and Teixeira homered for the Yankees, hitting three-run blasts in the second and third innings respectively.

Michael Pineda surrendered eight hits and six earned runs in five innings of work, allowing three home runs in the process. Four of those earned runs came on one swing from George Springer in the second inning; it was the first grand slam Pineda has given up in his career.

The Play: Castro’s three-run home run in the second (+.216 WPA)

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With two outs and runners on first and second, Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro bombed a second-inning home run to give the Yankees a 9-5 lead at the time. The homer scored both Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran.

The three-run home run also gave the Yankees breathing room again after Houston’s George Springer hit a grand slam in the top of the inning to cut New York’s lead to 6-5.

Top Performers: 

Yankees – Starlin Castro (4-for-5, HR, 5 RBI), Mark Teixeira (2-for-4, 2 R, 4 RBI)

Astros – George Springer: (1-for-4, Grand Slam off Pineda with two outs in second), Carlos Correa (4-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI)

The Quote

“Castro is playing tee ball right now.” – Carlos Beltran, on Starlin Castro’s 5-for-8 start to the season

Notes

– With four RBIs on Wednesday night, newcomer Starlin Castro became the first player in Yankees history with seven RBI in his first two games with the team.

– Castro (4 hits) and Didi Gregorius (3 hits) are the first Yankees’ starting middle infield duo to record at least three hits apiece since Aug. 18, 2013 when the Robinson Cano and Eduardo each had three against Boston.

– Chase Headley picked up a first-inning steal, his first stolen base since Sept. 10, 2014 vs Tampa Bay.

– The 16 runs scored by the Yankees was the most in a single game since August 30, 2015 in a 20-6 win over Atlanta.

Starlin Castro: The fourth Yankee w/at least 7 RBI in his first 2 games since 1913: Tino Martinez ('97), Yogi Berra ('56), Babe Ruth ('32).

— Lohud Yankees Blog (@LoHudYankees) April 7, 2016

The Highlight: The Yankees score six in the first inning

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Next Up

The Yankees host the Astros in the third and final game of this season-opening series on Thursday, April 7 at 4:05 pm ET at Yankee Stadium. Mike Fiers will get the start for Houston while Nathan Eovaldi will make his season debut for New York.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports

And, in 2014, that plan was executed. Beltran spent 76 games at DH and 32 games in right, but things didn’t go quite as general manager Brian Cashman had hoped. The 16-year veteran’s TAv dropped to .260, its lowest mark since 2000, and he drove in just 49 runs in 109 games.

Immediately, the deal was declared a mess. Good Lord, the Yankees have to roster this guy for two more seasons? He’s so old; his production will never return anywhere close to its All-Star levels. At least he’s not out being old in right field.

Suddenly, there was 37-year-old Carlos Beltran being old in right field.

When Alex Rodriguez returned from his season-long PED suspension, the team and its fans readied themselves for a tumultuous six months. He was entering his 21st big-league season, had clubbed just 45 home runs over the past three seasons, and  hadn’t played 140 games in nearly a decade. With Chase Headley and his shiny new contract occupying third base, the decision was made to try A-Rod out exclusively at DH, so he could make the most of his at-bats.

Against all odds, Rodriguez returned from a four-year hiatus like only Kanye West could. He ran out of the gate like a caged dog, hitting .278 in the first half of the season with 18 home runs and 51 RBIs, and took total control of the DH spot in the lineup.

The Beltran plan was crumpled up and tossed in the wastebin. He was reinserted into right field, and although he weirdly learned how to hit again, he was awful from a defensive standpoint. The three-time Gold Glove winner posted a -15.4 FRAA, which is Baseball Prospectus’ individual defensive metric that factors in things like ballparks and player handedness. 15.4 runs below average! Beltran single-handedly sunk the Yankees’ defensive efficiency to the 22nd worst mark in the league. With an uptick in offensive production, but a poor glove, was the deal still a mess? Based on the team’s new look, yes, it sort of was.

Now, if this were the ‘Millenium Yankees,’ which is some bland nickname for the early-2000s Yankees that I literally just created for the purpose of this article, this would be an entirely different story. Those teams didn’t care about defense, all they cared about was dingers. In a heartbeat, they’d take Beltran’s .280 TAv and 19 home runs in exchange for long, winding routes to fly balls. These aren’t your older brother’s Yankees, though. By locking up Headley, Gregorius and Ellsbury in the last couple of seasons, then adding Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks this winter, it’s clear the Yankees are attempting to build a young, glove-happy team.

Beltran will be gone after this season, and young Aaron Judge will take his place in right, but he’s still going to have to trot out to right field over 100 times this season with news that Rodriguez will continue as the team’s DH in 2016. For the time being, Rodriguez is inadvertently forcing the Yankees to lean on a player with a sub-zero defensive rating in one of their corner outfield spots. It won’t be a big deal one year from now, but Rodriguez may not be a big deal one year from now either. If the team is serious about contending in 2016, then this matters. It’s not on Beltran, and it’s not on Rodriguez, but the two of them have created a defensive issue for the Yankees.

Lead photo: Jonathan Dyer / USA Today Sports

Yes, the Yankees are going to be in the race next year.  Their off-season hasn’t quite signaled that they’re in ‘win now’ mode, but they do hope their new acquisitions will make significant contributions next year.  Yet despite their intentions to win in 2016, the organization’s future plans remain unclear.  What does the Yankees’ future hold after this season?  No massive roster overhaul has happened yet, but some moves have the undertones of an impending retooling period.

For years, the Yankees have been considered an ‘old team.’  While their roster age technically isn’t old—2015’s team ranked 15^th in the league at 27.1 years of age—their reputation holds some truth.  This is because the majority of the team’s biggest contributors are veterans.  Of the eighteen players with more than one win above replacement, ten of them are over 30, and nine are over 31.  Even more surprisingly, just one hitter under 31—Didi Gregorious—was worth more than a win above replacement.  For contrast, here is the same data for each AL East team.

While the Yankees are perfectly average in terms of total roster age, weighing their age based on performance shows that they’re a very top-heavy team; the majority of their production comes from older players.  When looking past 2016, the issue of graying players really starts to emerge. While some fans may be looking forward to the day Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Carlos Beltran are no longer on the team’s payroll, it would be foolish to push aside the value that these players bring. Grizzled veterans have long been the foundation of the Yankees, and once they’re gone, they will be sorely missed.

The sheer amount of value leaving the team in the near future is hard to comprehend, and even harder to replace. The farm system is only so deep, and the next two free agent classes are projected to be very thin.  To start, Mark Teixiera will be off the roster next season.  Sure, it’ll be nice to have $23 million laying around, but Teixeira was the most valuable Yankee last year in terms of WAR, earning a 3.8 mark, despite playing in just under 70% of the team’s games. Carlos Beltran and his $15 million will also be off the books after this season, and while he’s a zero in the outfield, he was the best bat in the lineup in the second half, leading the team with a 169 wRC+. Coming off the payroll after the 2017 year will be CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez.  Sabathia won’t be missed, but Rodriguez was the third-best bat on the team with a 129 wRC+, and prior to his late-season collapse he was the best hitter on the club. His 144 wRC+ led the team and was the seventh-highest in the American League.

There are two important things to note here. First is the 8.7 WAR (from last year) that will be absent from the roster. That’s 49% of all of last year’s value, gone.  That said, there’s also the salary relief and the extra spending money that Yankees will gain. In the short term, it will be quite hard to compete; simply building through the 2016 and 2017 free agent classes isn’t a feasible idea. Success from prospects can certainly ease the losses, but the Yankees lack impact players that are close to the majors.  According to Baseball Prospectus’ top-10 Yankees prospects, just three players that are projected to be starters in their prime will be big-league ready by the 2017 season.  In addition, it can sometimes take several years for prospects to adjust and reach their ceiling. The farm system has some serious talent, but much of it won’t be ready when veterans start leaving the team.

Like it or not, there’s a good chance the Yankees will use the 2016 and 2017 seasons to rebuild.  On the bright side, the Yankees will shed over $41 million from their payroll next winter, and after the 2017 season, another $46 million will mercifully be gone.

It seems that the Yankees are setting up for an acquisition period in 2018.  At that point, most of the Yankees’ best prospects—like Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge—will be approaching their prime, while a lot of the expensive veterans will depart.  The Yankees won’t be overly young, but at the same time they won’t be too top heavy.  Although some older players like Jacoby Ellsbury will likely still be around and may be overpaid, the roster will be relatively cost-effective. Analysts are already raving over what 2018’s free agent class could be—Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Dee Gordon, Jose Fernandez, Dallas Keuchel, Matt Harvey, Garrett Richards, Trevor Rosenthal, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Michael Brantley, Adam Jones, and Shelby Miller are all set to hit the market, and David Price, Jason Heyward and Clayton Kershaw would be available should they exercise their optout clauses.

This culmination of events could be the lead-up to the most legendary Yankees off-season of all-time, with a cheap roster, an open wallet, and tons of talent. It’s easy to start gushing about a free agent class that’s three years away, but at the same time, Yankee fans can’t forget about what will occur before then.  Nothing’s happened yet to indicate a retool, but the Yankees did come very close to dealing Andrew Miller for prospects and, despite obvious needs, have refused to sign players long term deals in free agency.  It’s not worth panicking over yet, but Yankee fans should keep in mind that this may be their last season as serious contenders until 2018.

Lead photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports

First you lose your innocence, which is a bummer. Then your hair goes. Next comes a time when you’re losing your keys on a daily basis, and eventually you’ve lost control of your bodily functions. Last but not least, your mortal coil is gone. There are undoubtedly some skipped steps in there, but those are the basics.

One of the places where we find ourselves observing aging the most closely is in professional sports. Because the athletes compete at such a high level, even the slightest effects of aging can rob them of their abilities in short order. Free agent contracts are often disastrous because of nothing more than the mundane aging process that affects all human beings.

As far as the New York Yankees are concerned, it is easy to see the effects of advancing years everywhere you look. Although the team is making some effort to get younger, this is still a club of relative greybeards, most of whom have seen much better days.

A perfect example is Carlos Beltran, who has gone from one of the best defensive players of his era in center field to a guy who ought to be playing out his career as a still-productive designated hitter. It’s a pretty stunning fall from grace in terms of defensive value provided, but it’s not unprecedented by any means. After all, the Yankees actual DH, Alex Rodriguez, used to be a Gold-Glove shortstop in his day.

The problem is that the way the Yankees are constructed, Beltran does not get an honorable discharge from playing in the field. Because the team has A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, and Greg Bird, they are committed to sticking him out in right field on a regular basis. In 2015, the results of that course of action were not good. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Beltran cost the Yankees 14 runs in the field—and even the more generous Ultimate Zone Rating pegged him at a -4.5.

At the age of 38, he simply can’t get to balls anymore. The chart below shows the plays he made in right in 2015:

Candidate One: “Beltran’s leaping snag”

The title is promising because there is a level of impressiveness implied in the word “leaping”, unfortunately the catch itself underwhelms.

Beltran glides over to the ball and his “leap” can’t be more than a few inches high. He shows good awareness of where the wall is, but there’s not much else to see here.

Candidate Two: “Beltran makes diving catch to rob Lowrie”

Another very solid title, another disappointing play.

There is undoubtedly some nifty work here going to the ground, but the commentator specifically says there’s a “late jump” by Beltran and this is a play that is not hard to make. The 38-year-old made it hard with his poor jump and lack of speed.

Candidate Three: “Beltran’s nice grab, ends the frame”

This play is named a little more cautiously and context is probably more important here than the catch itself.

To be frank, there aren’t many major-league right fielders incapable of running in and make a basket catch at knee level. Highlight reel material this is not.

Candidate Four: “Beltran reaches up for a nice catch in right”

Another perfect deployment of the word “nice” to deflate expectations.

These type of catches are harder to make than it might appear, but the jump component here is pretty pitiful and this is not a catch that anyone is talking about the next day.

Candidate Five: “Beltran retires Betts with a nice catch”

Nice strikes again and it’s starting to feel almost patronizing to the old man at this point.

Beltran is apparently battling the lights here so there’s an added degree of difficulty, but you wouldn’t see this on Kevin Kiermaier’s top catches of the season.

Realistically speaking, that’s about it. MLB.com may have missed something, but those guys are pretty thorough and combined with the Inside Edge data it seems safe to say Beltran didn’t make a single special catch in 2015.

There’s not necessarily anything wrong with that, Beltran’s career has evolved to the point that he’s essentially a bat-only player. However, with aging superstars there’s always the hope that once in awhile they can demonstrate what made them great in their youth as they approach the end, even if the can’t do it with any kind of consistency.

Unfortunately, last season Beltran wasn’t able to do that, even once.

Lead photo courtesy of Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Today there were rumors flying that the Yankees were considering playing John Ryan Murphy over Brian McCann in the Wild Card Game. This sounds a bit crazy, but there’s a method to this madness. In terms of playoff performance, McCann has hit .209 in 12 games with 16 strikeouts. In small sample sizes like this, his struggles probably don’t mean much. A career .209 playoff average certainly won’t help his case, though. One other reason for McCann’s possible benching is platoon splits, as McCann has hit worse against lefties in his career, while Murphy is more even against lefties versus righties. McCann also finished the season on a 1 for 22 slide. The Yankees Wild Card starter, Masahiro Tanaka, has been caught by both McCann (119 innings) and Murphy (35 innings). Tanaka has enjoyed slightly more success with Murphy as his battery mate, as he has a 2.83 ERA with Murphy compared to 3.71 ERA with McCann. Even with these factors in mind, McCann is certainly the better catcher and should play. But, if Murphy draws the start, the move could end up working out.

The Yankees infield, like their pitching staff (more on this later), lacks postseason experience. In the middle of the infield, the Yankees are unsure of who to use at second. It may come as solace to fans that they aren’t missing much from Stephen Drew, who has a .212 career average in the playoffs. Chase Headley will finally get his first taste of the postseason this year as despite a long career, the Padres never played in October during his time with San Diego.

Alex Rodriguez struggled in the second half of this season. He hit .278/.382/.515 in the first half, but just .216/.324/.448 in the second. History indicates that Rodriguez shouldn’t be expected to have a huge breakout in the postseason, as his .263/.369/.464 slash line is well below his career averages. A-Rod’s bat speed is all but gone, and he’s had to sit on fastballs to stand a chance at getting hits in the second half. His postseason outlook isn’t rosy.

So far, the Yankees’ veterans haven’t shown a whole lot of success in the postseason. Luckily, the Yankees have Carlos Beltran in the outfield. Beltran and the postseason go hand in hand, as Beltran is one of the best playoff performers of all-time. His .333/.445/.683/1.128 slash line is an incredible one, as are his 16 home runs, 40 RBI, and 35-to-24 walk-to-strikeout ratio over 51 games and 180 at-bats. Sure, Beltran is no longer the base stealing threat or defensive weapon he once was, but he always seems to come up big in the playoffs. Beltran finished this season on a high note, and will hopefully be a big contributor in the Wild Card Game. It’s worth mentioning that Beltran has a nearly even platoon split, but has four hits in ten at-bats (including a home run and a double), against Astros Wild Card starter Dallas Keuchel.

Another Wild Card dilemma the Yankees face is whether to start Chris Young or Brett Gardner. Once again, it seems counterproductive to sit a player like Brett Gardner, who was an All-Star this season, but postseason stats lean towards Young. Young has been spectacular in the postseason, with a .326/.453/1.174 slash line in 12 games (albeit a small sample size). In addition, he is the Yankees lefty killer, which will come in handy against the southpaw Keuchel. Now for Gardner, he had a rough second half and hasn’t been very good in postseason games. Unlike Young, Gardner has played in 33 playoff games, hitting just .215/.257/.231. It may be best for Gardner to sit on Tuesday. If he does, Gardner becomes a pinch running weapon for Girardi to use off the bench.

Beltran and Young have thrived in the playoffs, and this trend continues with Jacoby Ellsbury. He will likely start for the Yankees in the Wild Card Game and could be an impact player. Ellsbury has a .301/.361/.414 slash line in 38 postseason games, and while the lefty is a bit worse against left handed pitchers, he still has hit a respectable .284/.343/.394 against them in his career. (Editor’s note: There’s at least a chance Gardner starts over Ellsbury in center, as he did last Saturday against Orioles lefty Wei-Yin Chen-N.S.)

In terms of pitching, the Yankees won’t have much playoff experience. Of the few players that have appeared in multiple playoff games is Andrew Miller. Miller has appeared in a grand total of five games, throwing 7 1/3 innings of one hit, one walk, and zero run ball. Does this stat carry much weight? Not really, but it’s at least a small positive that Miller has postseason experience.

In terms of performance in the postseason, the Yankees have been a mixed bag. While they have some players that have struggled mightily, others have been stars. Previous postseason stats may not make a huge difference in the Wild Card Game, but they can indicate how a player may perform on such a big stage in an important matchup.

(Photo: Brad Penner-USA Today Sports)

While the terms “negative defensive value” and “Carlos Beltran” have traditionally mixed like mayonnaise and grapefruit, in the latter part of his career injuries and age have caught up with him. According to FanGraphs, he hasn’t been defensively in the black since 2008—five years before he signed with the Yankees.

However, Beltran was coming off a couple of excellent seasons with the bat, and the Yankees play by different rules than almost anyone else. Overspending a touch on a guy like Beltran isn’t really a problem for a team that prints money and he could undoubtedly help the teams score runs.

The only problem is the use of “undoubtedly” in that sentence wound up being wildly optimistic. In his first season with the team last year Beltran posted a .258 TAv on the way to a -0.0 WARP. His hitting wasn’t disastrous, but for him to have any value it has to be well-above average.

Coming into the 2015 season, expectations were not particularly high. It’s hard to get people excited about a 38-year-old player making $15 million who was below replacement level the previous season. In most cases that’s pretty damn reasonable, although if nothing else the Yankees have shown this year that age-related decline is not necessarily linear and players in the twilight of their careers can have resurgent campaigns.

At the beginning of the year, Beltran did not look like he would be one of those players. He got off to an appalling start in April with a .162/.215/.265 line which prompted responses like the following:

Stick a fork in Carlos Beltran. He's done. #Yankees

— B.J. Davis (@BJ_Davis23) April 21, 2015

@jessespector Is Carlos Beltran only done enough to stick a fork in him, or so done you should put a fork in the fork? #askspector

— hannah✯ (@firstheart42) April 30, 2015

Please note that I literally searched “stick a fork in Carlos Beltran” in order to find those tweets. I’m sure there’s a lot more out there if you are willing to break free of the “Stick a fork in X. X is done” framework. Personally, I was not.

Interestingly, he has posted a wRC+ above 120 in every month since then, and yet fans continued to bemoan his “doneness.”

Carlos Beltran needs to retire! He needs to take a breath, look in the mirror and go home. Too stiff, slow and old. He is DONE!

— Doug Treadway (@Tnyankeefan35) May 16, 2015

Carlos Beltran is done. I mean done. This is where he always flourishes. I never thought he would suck this bad here.

— LeslieinFortLee (@DisgustedNYer) June 3, 2015

@LukeBecker_YN26 that will be fun. It's clear as day that Carlos Beltran is done.

— Richie⚾️Ba〽️bara (@richie_bambara) July 12, 2015

Twitter is not necessarily the place to find the most accurate baseball analysis, but it is interesting that the perception that Beltran no longer has anything to offer has lingered deep into the season, long after he’s turned his season around.

It takes a long time for the general consensus to change. Yankees fans had it in their head that Beltran wasn’t any good anymore because of what they’d seen for over a year. In 127 games from the April 2014 to the end of April 2015 the outfielder was worth -1.3 Wins Above Replacement. In 89 games since he’s been worth 1.9.

Nowadays very few people are calling for Beltran to be pierced with cutlery, which is probably for the best. Since the All-Star Break the 38-year-old has hit .304/.385/.551 with seven of his 14 home runs. His production has increased in every conceivable category recently. He’s taking more walks, getting the ball in the air more and driving it with authority consistently. There is some BABIP luck involved here, but in the grand scheme of things it’s a minor factor.

How effective Beltran can be from here on out may depend on his health more than anything else, but he is well and truly back as a lineup stalwart and significant offensive contributor. His awful defense will always limit his value, and especially given what happened in 2014, his contract may never look like an efficient allocation of funds. But in the midst of a division race, he’s a bat the Yankees can count on.

Age may well be fraying the edges of Beltran’s game, but at this particular moment ,we can say with a great deal of certainty that he is not done.

(Photo: Greg M. Cooper-USA Today Sports)

That team was the last Yankee team to end a season under .500 and also the last to not have a future Hall of Famer.

A quick history: The Yankees (then the Highlanders) launched in 1903 with two future Hall of Fame players: Willie Keeler and Jack Chesbro. That duo departed following the 1909 season, leaving the Yankees without a future Hall of Famer from 1910-12. Frank Chance passed through in 1913 and 1914, followed by Dazzy Vance in 1915, then Frank Baker from 1916-19, bridging the gap to Babe Ruth and the rest of Murderer’s Row.

The Yankees then had at least one Hall of Famer appear in a game in every season through 1968, when Mickey Mantle retired.

After a brief Hall-of-Famer drought, Catfish Hunter arrived in the Bronx in 1975 to start a new streak, which lasted until 1989, when Dave Winfield missed the entire season with a back injury. After Winfield left a year later, the Yankees played 1991 and 1992 without a future Hall of Famer (if Don Mattingly or Bernie Williams makes it via the Veteran’s Committee one day, never mind). Then Wade Boggs arrived to hold us over to Jeter and Rivera, who are not yet official Hall of Famers but might as well be.

Entering this year, the Yankees’ franchise has been in existence for 112 seasons and had a future Hall of Famer on its roster in 100 of them (1910-12, 1969-75, 1989, 1991-92 being the exceptions).

But what about this year?

The Yankees have been so stacked with stars over the last decade that it seems inconceivable they could have no future Hall of Famers on the current roster, but when you look at the names and the BBWAA’s recent history you realize that, fair or not, there are no locks.

Let’s go through the Yankees’ potential Hall of Famers one by one, from least to most likely to be enshrined, and assess the chances the 2015 squad joins the list of Hall-of-Famer-free Yankees teams.

Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

These guys are good players who have had nice careers, but all are on the wrong side of 30 and not even halfway to Hall of Fame milestones and value-stat cutoffs. It would take a highly unusual late-career surge for any of these three to have a shot at the Hall.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Highly unlikely

Mark Teixeira

Before this season, Tex looked like a long-shot, most likely destined for the proverbial Hall of Very Good. But after a huge bounce-back 2015 campaign, the 35-year-old should reach 400 home runs by the end of the season (he’s at 394 now) and set his sights on 500 with a few more good years.

Teixeira’s numbers already compare favorably to Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda, and with a few more strong seasons and that 500 home run milestone, the first baseman might have a shot.

Then again, as a relatively one-dimensional first-baseman who played his prime in a high-offense era, even 500 home runs might not be enough. And the odds of Teixeira replicating 2015 too far into the future? Not so good.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

CC Sabathia

In a just world, Sabathia would be a borderline Hall of Famer, thanks to four top-five Cy Young finishes, a 117 ERA+ over nearly 3,000 innings, a 55 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) that puts him right on the edge of Hall standards.

But instead of a just world, we live in one where should-be shoo-ins Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina receive less than 40 percent of the BBWAA vote and should-be-borderline-candidate Kevin Brown is bounced on his first ballot with less than five percent of the vote.

According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which weighs peak and career value, Sabathia is clustered with Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana, and Tim Hudson in Hall worthiness.

Sabathia has as good a Hall argument as any of those candidates, but given the coming influx of borderline starting pitchers and the BBWAA’s hard-lining on Schilling and Mussina, Sabathia won’t make it without reversing his career’s downward spiral and adding to his resume.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Unlikely

Carlos Beltran

Beltran will likely become a cause celebre for the sabermetric community. His career WAR is almost 70, per Baseball-Reference, territory that typically earns you automatic induction. Per JAWS, Beltran is the eighth best center fielder of all-time, without even taking into account his exceptional postseason performance.

That said, Beltran could suffer from having been good at many things and historically great at none. He’s 17 home runs away from 400 for his career, he’s hit only .280 lifetime, he’s finished top-five in MVP voting only once.

With a .280/.355/.491 slash line, 121 OPS+, 383 homers, 311 stolen bases and a good defensive record at a premium position, Beltran should be shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. Instead it seems more likely he’ll hang around the ballot and need a groundswell to gain induction.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Somewhat likely

Alex Rodriguez

Call me crazy, but I’m fairly confident A-Rod gets into Cooperstown one day, along with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and all the rest of the alleged steroid cheats.

The BBWAA won’t do it, clearly, but one day when memories of the early-2000s PED outrage have faded, someone will look back on the gaudy numbers sitting outside of the Hall and decide to do something.

It may take 30 years for this prediction to bear out, but A-Rod will eventually have a plaque, and the 2015 Yankees will, retrospectively, have had a Hall of Famer.

Hall of Fame likelihood: Likely

Lead photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Catcher

Brian McCann: 71 PA, .266/.319/.453, 2 HR, 110 wRC+

Those who were not enthused with McCann’s Yankee debut in 2014 quickly became irked by a slow first couple weeks, but through the magic of small sample size, McCann has picked up the pace since then and it shows in his stat line. His defense has been solid as usual and his wRC+ ranks in the top half of 24 catchers with at least 50 PA. For $17 million, there will always be a legion of fans demanding more, but at the same time, Buster Posey and Russell Martin are roughly similar with a .273/.345/.403 and .186/.347/.390, respectively, all for around the same average annual value.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 2*
*Scale is 1-5 with 1 being not at all and 5 being extremely justified.

Second base

Stephen Drew: 74 PA, .177/.274/.419, 4 HR, 88 wRC+

Drew’s number one problem is in that first column. Deserved or not, there are many who will just never be satisfied with someone hitting under .200. What’s weird about Drew so far is that he’s demonstrated among the best plate discipline in his career so far with a 12.2 percent walk rate while also maintaining a career-low line-drive rate (12.8 percent). There’s potential for more, even though he almost certainly won’t become the 20-homer threat his current dinger pace suggests.

As it stands, his wRC+ ranks around the middle of the pack in baseball while the Yankees’ last two active second basemen, Martin Prado and Robinson Cano, aren’t doing much better. Cano’s sluggish start won’t last, but if Drew’s offense can balance out at around a low-90s wRC+ for most of the season, that would stay right about average for MLB second basemen. Add in shortstop-quality defense that couldn’t be offered by Jose Pirela (ultimately a bench bat) or Rob Refsnyder (still figuring out second), and Drew’s been fine so far, though a few more knocks definitely couldn’t hurt.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 3

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius: 69 PA, .206/.261/.238, 0 HR, 40 wRC+

The new shortstop has exactly two extra-base hits all year and just seems to be swinging after every pitch he sees. There might be fewer grumbles with Shane Greene going through a rocky stretch in Detroit, but Gregorius can’t bat like this forever. He shouldn’t either, as last year he at least had a .244 True Average whereas in 2015, he’s pulling up a sub-.200 TAv. Nonetheless, it’s easy to be bummed by Didi’s play to date, as even on defense he’s gone through ups and downs. If anyone really needs a hot month to win over some fans, it’s Didi. With no internal solutions due to the difficulty of growing a shortstop, the Yankees had to deal from a strength to give a young, talented defender a shot. Only a couple regular shortstops have been worse than Gregorius. That must change.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 4

Right field

Carlos Beltran: 69 PA, .159/.217/.270, 0 HR, 27 wRC+

It’s difficult to watch once-extremely talented players rapidly age before your eyes, but that’s pretty much the story of the Carlos Beltran Era in Yankees history. Just a couple years ago, the switch-hitting outfielder slugged .491 with a .289 TAv for a pennant-winning Cardinals team. That all seems like a distant memory. Hell, even his middling .258 TAv from last year while battling a bone spur in his elbow all season looks Ruthian compared to his .174 TAv to date. If you’re looking for the right fielder with the lowest wRC+ in baseball with at least 50 PA, look no further. It’s Beltran. Meanwhile, he’s owed at least $27 million from now through the end of next season. That’s an uncomfortable financial commitment, but the leash cannot be too long if the Yankees fancy themselves contenders. They can only cross their fingers and hope for a recovery for so long.

Justified Annoyance Scale: 5

Photo Credit: Kim Klement/USA Today Sports