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	<title>Bronx &#187; Bryan Mitchell</title>
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		<title>Building a Bridge to the Elite Relievers</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/31/building-a-bridge-to-the-elite-relievers/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/31/building-a-bridge-to-the-elite-relievers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Dec 2015 19:59:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Diamond]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Miller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Branden Pinder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan Mitchell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chasen Shreve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dellin Betances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jacob lindgren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Pazos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle Relief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Goody]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nick rumbelow]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following Monday’s trade for fireballer Aroldis Chapman, it’s quite clear that the Yankees have the best 1-2-3 &#8216;pen punch in the game, if not the best ever. Obviously, this absurd combination of high-strikeout and low-ERA relievers—Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Chapman—has the Yankees’ relieving corps receiving some high praise. There’s one thing to keep in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following Monday’s trade for fireballer Aroldis Chapman, it’s quite clear that the Yankees have the best 1-2-3 &#8216;pen punch in the game, if not the best ever. Obviously, this absurd combination of high-strikeout and low-ERA relievers—Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Chapman—has the Yankees’ relieving corps receiving some high praise. There’s one thing to keep in mind, though. A bullpen isn’t just three pitchers; however good they may be. While the team may have the final few innings locked down, there’s more to a successful ‘pen than two setup men and a closer. Despite what Joe Girardi may hope, Betances, Miller, and Chapman can’t each throw an inning every game, and Yankees starters can’t go six innings every outing.</p>
<p>An often overlooked part of a bullpen is the “bridge” from the starting pitchers to the elite relievers. After all, it doesn’t matter how good a closer is if the team is losing once he enters. Last year, the team was in relatively good shape in the middle innings, due to contributions from Adam Warren, Justin Wilson, and Chasen Shreve. Unfortunately, two of these pitchers are no longer with the organization, and the third, Shreve, is a big question mark going into this season following a second-half collapse in 2015. The Yankees will have to rebuild the bridge for next season, and that’s not an easy task.</p>
<p>The good news for the Yankees is that they won’t be forced to put as much pressure on the bridge, as Chapman’s addition theoretically removes an inning between the starters and the setup men/closer. This is hugely important, given two thirds of last year’s middle relievers are gone, and the other is hard to trust. Still, Yankees starters averaged just over five innings last season, so there will be a gap between them and the elite trio. The Yankees will have to build this vital bridge, and it won’t be easy. At the least, there will need to be two or three dependable pitchers to get from the fifth to the seventh.</p>
<p>The most obvious name for this bridge is the aforementioned Shreve, who was one of the team’s best middle relievers for much of the season. A lot of Shreve’s value came from his ability to fortify the middle innings. He totaled 21 innings in the seventh, which was 11 more innings than any other frame. His 2.02 ERA in the first half of the season was huge for the team, but following the All-Star Break, Shreve’s ERA ballooned to 4.76. I detailed the reasons behind Shreve’s collapse <a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/21/is-chasen-shreve-broken/"><strong>right here</strong></a>, but despite knowing what happened, it’s very hard to predict if Shreve can bounce back. At this point, the Yankees will have to hope he can rebound, but they can’t expect another 2.02 ERA. That said, any ERA around three is fine, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Shreve put up numbers around there.</p>
<p>Finding the second and third relief pitcher isn’t as easy. There are plenty of talented arms, but none of them have a track record of big-league success. The Yankees have six young relievers who could all conceivably make an impact next season: Bryan Mitchell, Branden Pinder, Nick Rumbelow, Jacob Lindgren, Nick Goody, and James Pazos. These players are listed in order of career innings: Mitchell has the most at a mere 40 2/3 innings, so we’ll start there.</p>
<p>Mitchell, 24, has started for the team in the minor leagues, and had a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts at Triple-A last year. He could be a third or fourth starter, but the Yankees gave him a chance as a relief pitcher last season. He totaled 24 innings, to the tune of a disappointing 6.00 ERA. But, it’s important to mention that Mitchell missed time after being hit in the face by a line drive. Luckily, Mitchell was ultimately okay and wasn’t out for very long, but he wasn’t the same pitcher after returning. Before the injury, Mitchell had a 4.03 ERA. Afterwards, his ERA was 12.46. That makes his 6.00 ERA understandable, but also worrisome. While it shows that he’s a better pitcher than what last year’s numbers showed, there’s the concern that Mitchell will have trouble bouncing back from his scary injury. Last season was rough for the young pitcher, but he’s still a very talented player. Beat writers have noted that Mitchell is a popular ask in trade talks, and he could be a decent option in the middle innings next year.</p>
<p>Next up is Branden Pinder, the owner of 27 2/3 major-league innings, all recorded last year. There’s good news and bad news with Pinder. The good news is his 2.93 ERA last season, and the bad news is a 4.72 FIP and 4.55 BB/9 to go along with the shiny ERA. A high walk rate and low groundball rate are what fueled Pinder’s frightening FIP, and he’ll have to get both under control if he wants to experience prolonged success. Pinder’s minor-league numbers don’t suggest an issue with control, so the biggest X-Factor will be his ability to induce groundballs. If the 26-year-old can cut down on the walks and keep the ball on the ground more, he could have an impact in 2016.</p>
<p>Despite struggling in Triple-A last season (4.27 ERA), Nick Rumbelow received a cup of coffee last year, throwing 15 2/3 innings of 4.02 ERA ball. Rumbelow may have more upside than Pinder, but he’s less likely to find immediate big-league success, as he’s struggled to put up anything better than average numbers in the minors recently. Rumbelow will be on the roster fringe, and may need a good performance in Spring Training to make the 25-man roster for Opening Day. He’s not a pitcher that the Yankees will expect to handle important innings early on, and has a better chance to contribute later this season and in 2017.</p>
<p>Now we get to the big name, Jacob Lindgren. The Yankees took Lindgren with their first draft pick (55th overall) in 2014, and he’s absolutely dominated in the minor leagues. Lindgren, when healthy, is possibly the best relief prospect in the minors, and has yet to have a K/9 in the single digits at any level of professional baseball. The issue, though, is health. Lindgren underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, knocking out his 2015 season after just 29 innings. If Lindgren can cut down on the walks, his elite strikeout rates gives him closer upside, and the 22-year-old could easily separate himself from all the other young relievers.</p>
<p>If Lindgren is the king of ridiculous strikeout numbers in the minors, then Nick Goody is the king of a ridiculous ERA. Last season, Goody posted a 1.73 ERA in Double-A and a 1.31 ERA  in Triple-A, along with a double-digit K/9 and reasonable walk rate. Goody wasn’t exactly dominant in the majors, with a four runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings, but that’s a very limited sample size. Goody’s raw talent isn’t anything special, but the 24-year-old’s eye-popping stats are sure to get him a look in the Spring.</p>
<p>Speaking of eye-popping stats, James Pazos posted a 1.09 ERA in Triple-A last year. Pazos, the only lefty in the mix, has elite velocity (for a left-hander) but doesn’t have any special secondaries. Still, he was utterly dominant in the minor leagues, and the Yankees are in love with him. When asked who was untouchable at the trade deadline, Hal Steinbrenner said Luis Severino, Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez…and James Pazos. The fact that he was mentioned in the same breath as the team’s best prospects says a lot about the 24-year-old, and the team already has confidence in him as a pitcher. Despite throwing just five major-league innings, the majority of his innings came in the ninth—a rare thing to see with pitchers merely receiving a cup of coffee.</p>
<p>All of these arms are very intriguing and could be late-inning relief pitchers in the future. But, what matters to the Yankees is present performance, and not all of these relievers are ready to be difference makers next season. Of all of the pitchers, Mitchell is the most likely to make the team out of spring training, along with Pinder. If Lindgren is healthy and back to old levels, there’s a good chance he makes the team as well. Pazos, Goody, and Rumbelow have a chance at making the bullpen, but it will take successful spring training performances. It’s challenging to choose one or two of these pitchers to join Shreve as the “bridge,” given their lack of track record, but for now Mitchell seems to be the most likely to get that role. If Lindgren is 100 percent, he absolutely deserves the role, but it’s hard to tell how he will look at this point.</p>
<p>The issue with the Yankees bullpen isn’t their lack of depth overall, but their lack of proven options. They have plenty of talented arms, all of whom I’ve mentioned above, and while they are likely major-league ready, that doesn’t mean they are ready to form a successful bridge to the elite relievers. Out of these pitchers, at least one or two should be up to the task, but it may take time for the team to find those pitchers and consistency could be hard to come by. Spring training will be a major determinant in who forms the bridge, but if I had to choose one now, Mitchell and Lindgren, along with Shreve, would be the best options in the middle innings.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo courtesy Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Finding the Yankees a Young Starting Pitcher</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/15/finding-the-yankees-a-young-starting-pitcher/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/15/finding-the-yankees-a-young-starting-pitcher/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2015 07:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Putterman]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Desclafani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan Mitchell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CC Sabathia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Salazar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henderson Alvarez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Nova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Paxton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julio Teheran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luis severino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Masahiro Tanaka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Pineda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nathan Eovaldi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rasiel Iglesias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Staring Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taijuan Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taylor Jungmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trevor Bauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Skaggs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Wheeler]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So far this offseason, the Yankees have focused on bolstering their batting order through trades for outfielder Aaron Hicks and infielder Starlin Castro. But now, with the team’s position-player alignment pretty much set (barring a trade of Brett Gardner) it is time to talk about pitching. If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So far this offseason, the Yankees have focused on bolstering their batting order through trades for outfielder Aaron Hicks and infielder Starlin Castro. But now, with the team’s position-player alignment pretty much set (barring a <a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/13/the-case-for-trading-brett-gardner/">trade of Brett Gardner</a>) it is time to talk about pitching.</p>
<p>If the season started tomorrow, the Yankees’ starting rotation would look something like this:</p>
<p>Masahiro Tanaka<br />
Luis Severino<br />
Michael Pineda<br />
Nathan Eovaldi<br />
CC Sabathia</p>
<p>Ivan Nova<br />
Bryan Mitchell</p>
<p>Now that’s not so bad. All seven of those guys have had some degree of success one time or another and could contribute in 2016. As a bonus, six of the seven are younger than 30 years old. But, like last year, the rotation carries a number of question marks. Will Pineda be healthy? Will we see the version of Sabathia that dominated September or the one that struggled through April, May, June and July (and that&#8217;s not even touching on the fact that he&#8217;ll be pitching for the first time since <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/10/06/the-weekend-long-bender-behind-cc-sabathias-rehab-stay/">checking into rehab</a> last October)? Can Nova bounce back from a bad season? Is Mitchell truly an MLB-caliber starter?</p>
<p>Given the uncertainty, it’s likely the Yankees will add to their rotation before Opening Day. And given their apparent commitment to youth and austerity, we can assume they’ll look for a young, cost-controlled option. But young starters certainly don’t grow on trees, and any team that has a 25-year-old, mid-rotation pitcher won’t likely part with him easily.</p>
<p>With Shelby Miller off the board and Jose Fernandez’s price <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cashman-hints-yankees-spoke-marlins-jose-fernandez-article-1.2459499">prohibitively high</a>, let’s look at some young pitchers Brian Cashman might think about placing calls on.</p>
<h3><strong>Category I: The Deep Rebuilding Team</strong></h3>
<p>Though most rebuilding teams want to hold on to their mid-20s players, occasionally a team embarks on a teardown so thorough it will part with even its young major leaguers. Here, we’re looking for pitchers young enough to help the Yankees in the near future but old enough that their current teams are willing to cash in for prospects.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Braves have already traded the 25-year-old Miller and 26-year-old Andrelton Simmons, so they would probably be willing to part with the 24-year-old Teheran for the right price. This would be somewhat of a buy-low move, as the righty is coming off an unimpressive season on the heels of two good ones. Teheran would cost the Yankees at least one of their top prospects (Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo), but unlike Fernandez wouldn’t require a package built around Severino.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Taylor Jungmann, Milwaukee Brewers</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Jungmann had a nice rookie year in 2015 (3.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 119.1 innings), but he’s already 25 years old, and the Brewers aren’t anywhere close to contention. There’s no specific indication that the 2011 first-round pick is available, but he’s the type of low-ceiling guy a rebuilding team might consider moving under the right circumstances.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Anthony Desclafani/Rasiel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>This could be a stretch, but the Reds have a ton of young arms, and maybe they’d be willing to part with one of the older, more developed ones. Desclafani and Iglesias are both almost 26 with solid rookie seasons under their belts. Would Cincinnati give up guys who don’t hit arbitration for a few more years? Who knows, but it’s probably worth a call.</p>
<h3><strong>Category II: The Low-floor/high-ceiling guys</strong></h3>
<p>The Yankees could pursue a young starting pitcher whose previous teams are ready to move on following early-career injury or ineffectiveness.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Henderson Alvarez, free agent</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Marlins non-tendered Alvarez only a year after he posted a 2.65 ERA and 3.58 FIP over 187 innings, which indicates an enormous lack of confidence in his ability to come back strong from shoulder surgery. Still, the 25-year-old has shown he can pitch at an elite level and will offer high-risk upside to whoever signs him.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Rays are <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-look-for-matches-20151206-story.html">supposedly</a> <a href="http://www.hngn.com/articles/151258/20151117/mlb-trade-rumors-tampa-bay-rays-taking-offers-on-matt-moore-drew-smyly-brad-boxberger-and-jake-mcgee.htm">discussing </a>trades involving the 26-year-old Moore, who has thrown only 73 innings in the past two years. Once upon a time, Moore was one of the top three prospects in baseball along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and the Yankees (along with everyone else) will be tempted to try to recapture that potential.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Skaggs hasn’t lived up to his top-prospect hype, with a career 4.72 ERA in 181 innings, but his 3.55 FIP in 2015 suggests a breakout could lie ahead. The Angels have more starting pitchers (Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemaker, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson) than they know what to do with, so perhaps they’d consider dealing the 24-year-old Skaggs.</p>
<h3><strong>Category III: May I interest you in Brett Gardner?</strong></h3>
<p>The Yankees’ willingness to trade Gardner opens up the possibility of working with a contending team that simply needs an outfielder (plus some prospects) more than a starting pitcher.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Taijuan Walker/James Paxton, Seattle Mariners</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Mariners have already <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/11/11/yankees-mariners-have-engaged-in-talks-about-brett-gardner/">reportedly turned down</a> a deal centered around Gardner and the 23-year-old Walker but are open to giving up 27-year-old James Paxton. Given Seattle’s need for outfielders, this one makes enough sense for the teams to eventually find some middle ground.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Danny Salazar/Trevor Bauer/Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Indians are reportedly listening to offers on all their starting pitchers, and though Carlos Carrasco’s price tag is likely greater than the Yankees are willing to pay, Cashman could make a move for Salazar, 25, Bauer, 24 or Anderson, 25. One of these deals could require forking over some good prospects in addition to Gardner, but the 32-year-old left fielder could be an appealing target for an offense-starved Cleveland team.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Zack Wheeler, New York Mets</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>The Mets have an excess of young starting pitching, and the 25-year-old Wheeler, coming off Tommy John surgery, could be the odd man out. The question is, does Sandy Alderson need an outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes, or are they content to start the season with a Michael Conforto/Juan Lagares/Curtis Granderson alignment.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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