Last night, Chapman drilled Bradley with a 103.3 MPH fastball. Nearly every sports media outlet chronicled how this was the fastest pitch in MLB this season, and that Bradley was tragically unlucky to take it on the elbow.

(Here’s a link to a gif of it because we can’t embed tweets for some reason.)

But the history of these two All-Stars goes deeper. In 7 career plate appearances against Chapman, Bradley is 2-3 with a walk and 3 HBP! On one hand, kudos to Bradley for reaching base 6 out of 7 times against perhaps the greatest lefty reliever of all time. On the other, that is NOT a sustainable way to reach base, let alone extend one’s career. Let’s examine these HBP a little further.

A (Very Painful) Trip Down Memory Lane

August 13, 2014: The first pitch Bradley ever saw from Chapman came up and in at 100.8 MPH. Bradley couldn’t get out of the way and got plunked. No, he didn’t; he got drilled. Plunked is what happens when a batter gets hit with a curveball or changeup. Chapman has never plunked anyone in his life. 2014 was Bradley’s first full season, and this was the first 100 MPH fastball he’d ever seen in the majors (and probably ever).

August 13, 2017: Three years to the day after the first HBP Chapman nailed him again, this time at 101.5 MPH on an 0-2 count. StatCast actually recorded the exit velocity at 51.7 MPH. That’s not the exit velocity off a wooden bat, that’s off bone and sinew! The ball traveled a distance of 43 feet. At the risk of being immodest, this is the single greatest application of StatCast in history.

May 8, 2018: 103.3 MPH, as shown above. This is the fastest velocity on a HBP ever recorded by StatCast, breaking the previous record of 102.7 from Chapman to Khris Davis on August 24, 2013. One would think after three near-assassinations, Bradley and Chapman might have words (or fists) to share with one another. Instead, Bradley simply takes his base, and Chapman walks toward him presumably to apologize or check that he’s OK. We don’t often get to congratulate ballplayers for showing maturity. Well done, gentlemen.

Bradley’s Terrible HBP Misfortune

This was not supposed to happen. Neither Bradley nor Chapman are prone to HBP (thank goodness). Bradley has faced 8,216 pitches in his MLB career and he’s only been hit by 34 of them (0.41%). Chapman is one of the most dangerous pitchers on the planet simply because of his blistering fastball, but he’s only hit 21 batters with 7,633 pitches (0.28%). Averaging the two, a pitch thrown from Chapman to Bradley should result in a HBP only 0.35% of the time or once every 286 pitches. In actuality, 3 out of 23 pitches have left a bruise.

However, not every pitch by Chapman reaches triple digits. He throws a lot of sliders and plenty of fastballs that only reach the high 90s. Roughly 1/3 of Chapman’s pitches cross the 100 MPH threshold (35.6%), so the chances of Bradley getting hit with a 100 MPH Chapman fastball are only 0.12%. Mathematically, it should happen once every 805 pitches, but in real life, it’s been once every 8!

Other pitchers have thrown 100 MPH, but last night’s 103 MPH high cheese was truly rare even for Chapman. He’s only thrown 262 pitches in his career at that speed or higher, which is 3.4% of all his pitches. Before last night, no one had ever been hit by a 103 MPH pitch. Based on the HBP rates of both Chapman and Bradley, it should happen once every 8,347 pitches from the former to the latter. Unfortunately for Bradley, it happened on just the 23rd.

Bradley has paid his dues against the Cuban Missile. The odds of getting struck 3 times in just 23 pitches by the hardest thrower in baseball history are unbelievably long. It’s highly unlikely to happen ever again. However, next time he faces Chapman he should consider standing a few inches further back in the batter’s box.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups

Friday at 7:05 pm ET- Michael Pineda vs. Rick Porcello

Porcello breezed through seven scoreless innings Saturday against the beleaguered Yankees lineup. He struck out six and didn’t allow an extra base hit all night. Even before the Sox pummeled New York’s middle relievers for six runs in the sixth and seventh inning, it didn’t feel like the Yankees ever had a shot.

Big Mike’s performance that start was infinitely uglier than his pitching line indicates. He threw 50 pitches in his first two innings and had more than 90 by the end of the fourth. It was hard to watch Pineda struggle through that outing. Nothing at all is working for him at the moment. He was expected to be a front of the rotation starter for this team, and unless he figures out a way to get back to being that guy, the Yankees chances of contention this year are small.

Saturday at 4:05 pm ET- Nathan Eovaldi vs. David Price

As depressing as the series sweep was, it was nice to see the Yankees knock Price around Sunday. Price finished the night as the AL leader in both hits and earned runs allowed. The ERA continues to soar, now up to 6.14, but his peripherals remain on point, so his FIP of 2.88 is actually below his career mark. With three vintage Price starts and three disasters in 2016, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen when he takes the mound again Saturday.

Eovaldi followed up the best start of his Yankee career with his worst of 2016, allowing 10 hits, six runs, and three walks against the Red Sox, all season highs. Another 8-7 slug-fest seems unlikely for the second go-round given the usual caliber of Price and Eovaldi’s work on the mound.

Sunday at 8:05 pm ET- Luis Severino vs. Steven Wright

Wright has dominated the Yankees in his three career appearances against the team, limiting them to a 1.50 ERA in 18 IP. This current crop of Yankees has a combined .136/.224/.318 slash mark against him, although both Beltran and Teixeira have taken him deep. His biggest weakness is that he walks a ton of batters, 4.2 per nine in 2016 and 3.6 per nine for his career. The Yankees haven’t hit for much power this season, but they’re a patient group of veterans who will take their walks.

With all the talk of demoting Severino to the minors, this could be an important start for the 22-year old. GM Brian Cashman recently acknowledged that sending down Sevvy was a possibility, telling reporters, “If we feel that’s what has to take place, that’s definitely an avenue that’s open. Hopefully it doesn’t have to come to that, but if that’s what’s in his best interest, and therefore our best interest, that’s something I have no problem doing.”

Bullpen

– In Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to the White Sox, Carson Smith threw nine pitches in his 2016 debut. He was activated Junichi Tazawa threw 23, and Matt Barnes threw 22.

– Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel each posted a scoreless inning in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory, throwing 11 and 12 pitches respectively.

– The Red Sox pen received a workout Thursday after starter Henry Owens was pulled in the fourth inning. Heath Hembree threw 43 pitches, Barnes had 23, 19 for Tazawa, and another 34 for Robbie Ross. Boston is currently carrying eight relievers, so they have more than enough depth to soak up games like this.

Lineup

We are all pretty familiar with what the Red Sox offense can do after they scored 20 runs off of Yankee pitching in the previous series. David Ortiz and Christian Vazquez hit game-winning homers off of Dellin “The Mountain that Pitches” Betances on Friday and Sunday. Jackie Bradley had five RBI over the weekend, while Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts each added three.

Here’s a look at how the Red Sox lineup has performed this season (minimum 20 PA) ranked by True Average:

Injuries

Yankees:

– Brett Gardner is day to day with a sore elbow since being hit with a pitch Wednesday. Ben Gamel was called up to provide some outfield depth.

– Alex Rodriguez was placed on the disabled list Wednesday with a right hamstring strain. He’s expected to miss several weeks. He’ll join Greg Bird and Mason Williams on the 15-day DL, while Bryan Mitchell and Branden Pinder are residents of the 60-day DL.

– Aroldis Chapman is expected to return to the team Monday after the conclusion of the series against the Sox when his 30 day suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy is finished.

Red Sox:

– Pablo Sandoval underwent season-ending shoulder surgery on Tuesday. He has been on the 15-day DL since April 11th.

– Boston also has a pair of young starters on the 15 day DL who are well on their way to rejoining the team in Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez. Kelly is expected to make a rehab start for Triple-A Pawtucket Friday, while Rodriguez completed his second on Tuesday. Kelly was placed on the disabled list April 20th with a shoulder impingement. Rodriguez has been out since spring training with a dislocated knee.

– Brandon Workman, currently rehabbing from June 2015 TJ surgery, is their only player on the 60 day DL.

Lead photo: Evan Habeeb / USA Today Sports

Coming into the game, the Yankees ranked 25th in the majors with a .131 ISO, a tremendous drop from the .170 mark that ranked fifth in baseball just last season with essentially the same lineup. To put that in perspective, this month they hit for less power than the 2015 Phillies, who finished one away from losing 100 games.

They actually rank in the middle of the pack in terms of getting on base and making contact. The surprising power outage suffered by many of their key hitters has been perhaps the biggest factor in the team’s offensive struggles. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury entered the weekend with slugging percentages well below .400. They are also playing a corner infielder every day who is dangerously close to not getting an extra base hit in the first month of the season in Chase Headley.

At least A-Rod looks like he may be coming around. He’s now homered in back to back games with his solo shot in the second, career homer 691. Gardner singled in the other Yankee run in the fifth.

Masahiro Tanaka cruised through six scoreless innings before allowing a two out, two run double to Jackie Bradley in the seventh to tie the game. Dellin Betances came in to relieve him and ended up surrendering a heartbreaking two-run game winner over the Green Monster.

The Play: David Ortiz’s Game Winner Over the Monster (-.328 WPA)

I can’t begin to express how happy I am that this is David Ortiz’s final season. This was a clutch home run against possibly the most dominant reliever in baseball. You just have to tip your hat.

Top Performers

– Red Sox: David Ortiz (2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI)

– Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (6 2/3 IP, 5 K, 0 BB)

Notes

– Aroldis Chapman posted on his Instagram that he has officially become a citizen of the United States, writing: “Today is a very important day for me and I want to share it with all of you. Today April 29, 2016 I’ve became a U.S. Citizen and I want to thanks God and this great nation for the opportunities it has offer me and my family. Very happy to say that I’m a U.S. Citizen.” Chapman’s 30 game suspension will be up in less than two weeks on May 9th.

– Aaron Hicks remained on the bench sixth straight game since jamming his shoulder on a diving catch April 22nd against Tampa Bay. He pinch ran for A-Rod late in the game Wednesday, but has yet to bat or play the field. Sitting Hicks against the left-handed Owens could indicate that Hicks is not yet 100% healthy. Alternatively, Girardi could have been worried about rust from the long layoff or Hicks’s slow start to the season on offense.

The Highlight

Al quickly quieted the torrent boos of the Boston crowd in the top of the second with his 28th career dinger at Fenway Park. He then makes a point of giving the bat he used to a young fan. Love that guy.

Up Next

Michael Pineda will square off against Rick Porcello in the second game of this three game series at 7:10 pm ET Saturday evening. Porcello is undefeated through his first four starts this year, while Pineda has struggled to find his groove. Big Mike struck out 9 but allowed 7 runs on 10 hits in his last start against the Rays.

Lead photo: Bob DeChiara / USA Today Sports

Pitching Matchups

Friday at 7:10 pm- Henry Owens vs. Masahiro Tanaka

The 23-year-old Owens, who was called up to replace injured starter Joe Kelly, had a rough start to his 2016 campaign on Sunday against the Astros. He threw 86 pitches in 3 ⅓ innings, walking four and allowing three earned runs. Control has always been his Achilles heel; he’s averaged four free passes per nine as a professional.

Even at his best, Owens is not the most imposing opponent. His fastball sits 88-90 and is extremely hittable. His best pitch is an outstanding changeup. He’ll also mix in an occasional OK curveball. PECOTA projects a 4.57 DRA and 0.4 WARP in 74 ⅓ innings of work this year.

Saturday at 7:10 pm- Rick Porcello vs. Michael Pineda

Porcello has been slightly less disappointing in his second season with the Red Sox. While the four-year $82.5 million extension he signed last season may not be a bargain, it no longer looks like a Sandoval-esque sunk cost. In fact, Boston has won all four of Porcello’s starts in April. The long ball is still an issue in the early going (five in 25 ⅔ IP). It’s worth noting that Jacoby Ellsbury has destroyed Porcello in the past. In 26 PAs he has 12 hits, 4 home runs, and two doubles. Brett Gardner and Carlos Beltran also have strong career numbers vs. Porcello, while Mark Teixeira has slashed .182/.250/.182 in 24 PAs.

Porcello’s primary weapon is his 90 mph sinker, which he’s thrown 44.7% of the time in 2016 according to Pitch f/x. He also mixes in a four seamer, cutter, slider, and change. PECOTA foresees a modest rebound from last season’s disaster, with a 4.22 DRA and 1.4 WARP in 145 IP.

Sunday at 8:05 pm- David Price vs. Nathan Eovaldi

A 5.76 ERA probably wasn’t what most Sox fans were envisioning from their newly signed ace/savior, but the good news is that Price appears to have been the victim of some bad luck in the early going. All of his peripherals are right in line with career norms, and he’s leading the American League in strikeouts and Ks per nine.

For what it’s worth, he actually hasn’t been credited with a loss either, although he has had two very ugly starts, most recently allowing eight earned in 3 ⅔ innings on April 21 against Tampa Bay. He was dominant in his last outing, striking out 14 in 8 IP, but it was against the woeful Braves, so that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Still just 30 and coming off his best season since his 2012 Cy Young campaign, Price seems like an unlikely candidate for a sharp decline at this stage. PECOTA expects a 3.45 DRA and three WARP in 160 2/3 innings.

Bullpen

The Red Sox used their pen sparingly in their recent series against the Braves. David Price gave the team 8 strong innings against the Braves on Wednesday, with Pat Light pitching the ninth. Tommy Layne threw 23 pitches while Heath Hembree threw 15 in Thursday’s 5-3 loss. Everyone else looks to be rested and ready to go for Boston. They are currently carrying 8 relievers.

Offense

David Ortiz (.320 TAv) and Dustin Pedroia (.285 TAv) have turned in vintage performances in the early going. Ortiz looks like he could do this for another decade in he wanted to. For all the hype about the Red Sox talented youngsters, it’s the old guard that is still carrying the Sox offense thus far in 2016. Mookie Betts (.268 TAv) and Xander Bogaerts (.270 TAv) have been solid in the first month, but haven’t yet kicked it into high gear.

The biggest surprise of April has been Travis Shaw (.326 TAv), who replaced Pablo Sandoval at the hot corner out of spring training despite having only 59 professional starts at the position to his name coming into 2016. The unheralded former ninth-round pick has exceeded all expectations in his climb up the minor league ladder. While this level of production isn’t sustainable, it’s not out of the question that he develops into a solid regular.

Hanley Ramirez (.233 TAv) continues to struggle mightily at the plate, even after returning to the infield and reportedly turning over a new leaf with his work ethic. Brock Holt (.262 TAv) has been miscast as an everyday left fielder. Defensive specialists Jackie Bradley (.242 TAv) and Christian Vazquez (.207) round out the cast.

The Boston bench currently consists of veteran backup catcher Ryan Hanigan (.207 TAv), former Yankee Chris Young (.198 TAv) as the fourth outfielder, and utility infielder Josh Rutledge (.391 TAv in very limited time).

Lead photo: Tim Heitman / USA Today Sports