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	<title>Bronx &#187; Alex Avila</title>
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		<title>The Yankees Should Sign Alex Avila</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/28/the-yankees-should-sign-alex-avila/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/28/the-yankees-should-sign-alex-avila/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Jan 2018 17:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[E.J. Fagan]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Avila]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9935</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Yankees seem to be still shopping around for a starting pitcher or infielder, without much success. They are constrained by a budget of $10-$15 million; a huge addition is unlikely, and the Yankees have perfectly fine in-house options to start at third, second, and starting pitcher. Instead, the Yankees should consider signing catcher Alex [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Yankees seem to be still shopping around for a starting pitcher or infielder, without much success. They are constrained by a budget of $10-$15 million; a huge addition is unlikely, and the Yankees have perfectly fine in-house options to start at third, second, and starting pitcher. Instead, the Yankees should consider signing catcher Alex Avila</p>
<h3>The Problem: Austin Romine</h3>
<p>Austin Romine is a bad major league player. Over the past two seasons, he has hit .228/.271/.330 in 611 PAs, worth -0.6 WARP. Romine is one of the worst backup catchers in baseball.</p>
<p>He doesn&#8217;t make up for it on defense either, at +2.6 adjusted FRAA. He&#8217;s a solid framer (+4.0 runs), but a slightly below-average receiver (-0.3 runs) and thrower (-1.2 runs). Gary Sanchez provides similar defensive value (+3.0 FRAA in twice as many plate appearances), as a similar framer (+3.6 runs), slightly worse receiver (-2.6 runs) and slightly better thrower (+2.2 runs). Basically, Austin Romine doesn&#8217;t make up for some of the worst hitting in the majors with defense.</p>
<p>Romine is due to earn $1.1 million next season. If the Yankee budget is tightly constrained, that&#8217;s not nothing. Some of his salary can go towards paying better free agents, or deadline deals. They could also waive him to the minors. I bet he would make it through waivers.</p>
<h3>The Solution: Alex Avila</h3>
<p>Alex Avila is a bat-first, 30-year-old catcher. Last season, he hit .264/.387/.447, .362 wOBA in 376 plate appearances. Statcast thinks he might be even better, with a .401 xwOBA (although we should note that there is some reason to believe the Statcast data in Detroit was off a bit last season; he put up a .364 xwOBA on the road). For a catcher, he&#8217;s a near-elite hitter.</p>
<p>Avila also fits well on the Yankee bench. He&#8217;s a left-handed hitter, while the Yankees are increasingly right-handed. He kills right-handed pitching with a .270/.398/.478 batting line. The Yankees could rest Gary Sanchez against right-handed pitchers. He&#8217;s also good enough hitter that Avila could make spot starts a DH and first base against right-handers, especially if the Yankees have to deal with an injury to Greg Bird or one of their corner outfielders.</p>
<p>Of course, there&#8217;s a reason why one of the best hitting catchers in the majors is looking for a backup catcher job. Alex Avila is a terrible defensive catcher. BP has him at -10 FRAA, entirely due to bad framing (-10.7 FRAA). He&#8217;s pretty average at catching and throwing. Framing seems like a skill that can be coached, a least a little bit. Maybe the Yankees can turn him into just a below-average catcher.</p>
<p>Even with the poor framing, Alex Avila is a big upgrade over Austin Romine. BP puts the difference at +1.8 WARP last season. Baseball Reference, which does not measure framing, puts the difference at +3.5 WAR. That&#8217;s a big upgrade either way, and the Yankees could stretch it even more by using him creatively off the bench.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m skeptical that the Yankees can find a 1.8 to 3.5 win addition with their current budget at infield or starting pitcher, given the strength of their replacement player options. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres are pretty good, probably 1.5-2.0 win players next year, and potentially much better. Todd Frazier (~ 3 WARP), Josh Harrison (~2-2.5 WAR), or other cheapish options in the infield aren&#8217;t huge upgrades over Andujar and Torres. Ditto for a sixth starter on a team with Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and other great options at Triple-A.</p>
<h3>But isn&#8217;t catcher defense too important?</h3>
<p>The Yankees won 3 World Series with Jorge Posada behind the plate so&#8230; I think they can handle a bat-first backup catcher. Avila is bad, but he&#8217;s not catastrophically bad. A team as smart as the Chicago Cubs traded for him in advance of their playoff run last year. Catcher defense isn&#8217;t magic; we can balance it against his offensive contribution.</p>
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