Nobody would have faulted the Yankees for cutting ties with Hicks after his first year in pinstripes. Of 353 major leaguers with 200 or more plate appearances in 2016, Hicks had the 26th-worst TAv at .220 in 2016. After years of mostly feeble hitting with the Twins, the season appeared to be a confirmation of who Hicks truly was as a hitter. Yet, the organization stuck with him despite over a thousand lackluster big league plate appearances. Finally, in the next season, the Yankees’ belief in Hicks paid off. He started off the 2017 campaign strongly and eventually nabbed the starting center fielder job from Jacoby Ellsbury. Injuries wore him down in the final couple of months of the year, but his final offensive line was still stellar. This season, Hicks has proven that last year was no aberration. With his strong performance now extended into 2018 while remaining healthy, there’s no question that Hicks has become another star on this roster.

To date this year, Hicks has accumulated approximately four WAR per Fangraphs’ and Baseball Reference’s version. Baseball Prospectus’s version only has Hicks at two, which is the outlier of the bunch. BP’s version views Hicks as a very bad defender this year, which doesn’t really pass the smell test considering Hicks’s reputation, past performance, and numbers elsewhere. It just so happens that since 2017, those two along with Charlie Blackmon are the only center fielders with more Fangraphs WAR than Hicks. Trout is obviously far and away the leader, at 14.9, but Hicks’s 7.4 is right on Blackmon’s tail (7.5) and not too far behind Cain (9.0). Per Baseball Reference’s version, Hicks is comfortably ahead of Blackmon (8.0 vs. 5.8) but still in back of Trout (14.9) and Cain (8.9).

Given Blackmon’s decline this season, it’s safe to say that Hicks is the third-best center fielder in baseball. In a world without an all-time great like Trout, Hicks might be in the top two. By season’s end, Hicks should end the year as a five-win player with more than 25 homers, a high on-base percentage, and his usual excellent defensive marks. Without a doubt, that makes him a star player. It’s incredible to see how far he’s come since his dud of a season in 2016.

Credit where credit’s due: first and foremost to Hicks for working to make the most of his ability, and two, to the Yankees front office for maintaining faith despite an ugly first year in the Bronx. Still just 28 and with another year before free agency, Hicks’s stardom will benefit the Yankees’ in playoff runs this season and next. It’ll also reward the center fielder with a very nice contract in free agency thereafter. It’s not easy to fill a premium position like the one Hicks plays, so when the winter of 2019 comes around, hopefully, the Steinbrenners open their checkbook.

Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Prior to 2017, the center fielder was never much of a hitter. From his debut in 2013 through the 2016 campaign, Hicks had a 76 wRC+ in 1,289 plate appearances. Since his return to action last August, Hicks has sported a lackluster 89 wRC+ in 236 trips to the plate. That strong period between certainly seems like an aberration at face value.

To be honest with you, I started to write this article with the idea that Hicks really isn’t very good. I had presumed that what he did to start last season was a fluke and that his body of work prior to 2017 was still representative of who he is as a player, especially considering how poor he’s hit to begin 2018. I thought the data would support my instinct, but it certainly does not.

Hicks did have some good fortune in his hot start last season, but it’s not as if he wasn’t stinging the ball. A .349 xwOBA is quite good. Since his return late last summer, Hicks has had slightly better contact quality but doesn’t have anything to show for it.

Since Hicks is a switch-hitter, it makes sense to see how he’s done from each side:

The story remains the same.

Furthermore, Hicks is still excelling in other facets of his game. The 28-year-old’s plate discipline has been stellar, as his career-low 19.9 percent out-of-zone swing rate indicates. That’s resulted in Hicks walking 14.5 percent of the time and striking out a reasonable 19.7 percent of plate appearances. In the outfield, he’s played his typically strong defense. The only thing not going Hicks’s way is what happens when he makes contact. Surely, his .233 BABIP won’t last.

Is it frustrating that Hicks isn’t getting results? Of course. As I said, before digging deeper, I was ready to write him off. He was terrible with the Twins and his short spurt of success last season was an anomaly, right? It appears that my gut was wrong and it seems like a correction is looming. Given his approach at the plate and quality of contact, it’s only a matter of time until we see him get positive results. Just what the Yankees need, another good hitter.

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

A hot start put Hicks in the driver’s seat this year. He took the center field job from Jacoby Ellsbury early this season and didn’t lose his spot even after missing significant time due to injury. All else being equal, his competition for the position will be no different next year. Of course, the Yankees probably want to get rid of Ellsbury this winter, though good luck with that. Brett Gardner could be an option in center as well, but he’s firmly entrenched in left field assuming he survives another offseason of trade rumors. That leaves us with Hicks. Should we be comfortable with him in center field next year?

The sum of the parts of Hicks’s 2017 campaign was very good. In only 88 games around disabled list stints due to oblique injuries, the switch-hitter accumulated 1.9 WARP behind a strong .286 TAv. Though FRAA says Hicks was a poor defender, pegging him at -3.4 runs below average, he appeared to be his usual excellent self in the outfield (2017 is the only year FRAA has frowned upon his defense, so perhaps it’s an anomaly). Below average defenders don’t make plays like this:

Up until this season, Hicks was not much of an offensive contributor. His first season in New York was rough, to say the least, and his years prior with Minnesota weren’t inspiring. Regardless, Hicks has always been talented, and his tools shined brightly in 2017, particularly before he suffered his first oblique injury on a check swing in late June. Up until that point, Hicks was hitting .290/.398/.515 with 10 home runs, a 15.3 percent walk rate, and a 17.4 percent strikeout rate in 242 plate appearances.

Hicks rejoined the Yankees on August 10th, but only collected 115 more plate appearances in the regular season because of another injury interruption. Like in June, Hicks suffered an oblique injury in September, although this instance was to the muscle on the other side of his torso and not the one he had previously hurt. In those 115 trips to the plate to end the year, the 28-year-old didn’t keep the pace he set during the first portion of his season. Rather, he posted a measly .216/.322/.402 triple-slash in 115 plate appearances.

Why did Hicks’s performance suffer late in the season? A number of reasons could be at play. Understanding what happened could give us some insight about the outfielder’s prospects with the team going forward.

Health seems like a logical explanation for the switch-hitter’s struggles. It’s pretty easy to imagine how some soreness or pain in the oblique area could hinder one’s swing, right? It’s possible that Hicks never felt quite right after his first return from the disabled list. Without any corroboration from the player, it’s hard to corroborate this sort of explanation as anything much more than conjecture. It seems reasonable and very well could be part of the reason for what happened, but it’s almost impossible to say with certainty.

What about good ol’ regression? It’s always a safe answer for why a player isn’t matching previously unsustainable standards. And with Hicks, concern about regression to his pre-2017 self will always be a concern until he proves otherwise. He was a lifetime .223/.299/.346 hitter entering this season, which is pretty bad! Perhaps what we saw this August and after was a reversion to Hicks’s true talent level. That would be bad.

Further, batted ball luck can’t be ignored, especially in the sample sizes being examined here. Hicks’s torrid start to the season could be just as noisy as his lackluster finish to the year. Fortunately, Statcast can help get to the bottom of how “real” Hicks’s performance was.

Statcast tells us quite a different story than the actual results indicated. In fact, it deems the switch-hitter’s season to have been far more consistent than we likely realized. Hicks’s xwOBA, which tells us what a player’s wOBA should have been given launch angle and exit velocity inputs, didn’t fall as drastically as his actual wOBA in the splits I’ve called out. Instead, it tells us that Hicks was well over his head through late June, though still striking the ball well, as a .338 xwOBA is nothing to sneeze at (in 2017, the league’s xwOBA and wOBA were .314 and .327 respectively). His .328 xwOBA after his initial disabled list return was respectable too, and an indicator of some misfortune down the stretch.

There’s no question that results-wise, Hicks fell back as the season went on. This is going to be a cop-out answer, but all of the reasons I’ve outlined above likely contributed to his late-season swoon. His oblique(s) very well could have hampered his hitting while in the meantime regression and poor batted ball luck reared their ugly heads. On the other hand, maybe none of this means anything and I’ve looked far too much into two split small samples, and instead, we should squarely focus on his full-year output. Whether you prefer looking at Hicks’s season in two parts or as a whole, what he did has him positioned firmly in the team’s plans moving forward.

Hicks has two more seasons before he can become a free agent and appears to have carved out a role in the Bronx. Though he hasn’t suddenly morphed into the star that he seemed to be at the beginning of 2017, he appears to be a very good option in center field going forward. His underlying statistics, particularly xwOBA, indicated that Hicks hit like an above average player this past season. It is fair to still be concerned about the 2013-2016 version of Hicks reappearing at the plate, but he does have a pretty good amount of cushion to fall from if we don’t believe he’s truly a .335 xwOBA talent (his full-year mark in 2017). With his defensive skills, an average to slightly below average bat is absolutely playable every day in center field next year and beyond.

Don’t expect Hicks to remain in pinstripes after 2019, as he’ll be 30 and the Yankees probably will have other options on the table. The outfield could get crowded with Aaron Judge firmly entrenched and Clint Frazier and Estevan Florial coming, not to mention Bryce Harper’s free agency after 2018. For now, though, Hicks isn’t one of the Yankees concerns for next season.

wOBA and xWOBA data via Baseball Savant.

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina / USA TODAY Sports

Let’s take a look at the major changes in Hicks’ numbers. As I mentioned before he’s leading the AL in OBP. Due in part to the fact he is walking a lot more. Hicks has already walked 16 times this season (17.4%), way up from his career walk rate of (10.1%). Take a look at his plate discipline numbers (Below) and sure enough you see Aaron Hicks has flat out stopped swinging. Among players with 80 PAs, his O-Swing% is the lowest in the league, Z-Swing% is 23rd lowest, and overall Swing% is 3rd lowest in the league. His current O-Swing and Swing% would have been good for lowest in the majors last season as well, by a margin of over 2 percentage points apiece.

Plate Discipline

Hicks’ low swing rate is going to lead to a lot of walks. And walks are a good thing. His teammate, Brett Gardner, has made a career out of taking pitches. He currently has the lowest swing rate in the league and the second-lowest rate in the past three seasons combined. So does a low swing rate correlated to success at the plate? Below is a chart of last year’s qualified hitters OBP and TAv vs. both Swing% and O-Swing%, along with the correlation coefficient and p-value for O-Swing or Swing% significance as a linear predictor:

As you can see OBP and both O-Swing and Swing% are fairly well correlated and both serve as a very significant linear predictor of OBP as well (very low p-values). This is fairly intuitive. If a batter swings at balls less he is going to walk more, and get on base more. The relationship between TAv and both Swing% is less correlated but O-Swing% and Swing% serve as significant predictors. This one is also not hard to figure out. Generally, batters are not going to make good contact on balls out of the strike zone. The more balls out of the zone they lay off the quality of contact, and the higher TAv.

Swinging less isn’t always good however. Taking strike’s in the middle of the zone is not a good thing. Aaron Hicks, sure enough, has been guilty of this a lot this season:

He has only a 44.8% Swing% on pitches in the lower third of the strike zone and has only swung at 9 of 14 pitches over the middle of the plate!

Now this is a sign of regression to come for Hicks. Swinging at so few strikes is not good for power. I looked last year’s relationship between Swing% and ISO and the linear relationship was minimal, cor = 0.021 p-value = 0.805. If a hitter is swinging less overall, it does not tell you much about their power.

Hicks is not hitting the ball harder, he’s actually hitting the ball less hard. His Average Exit Velocity is 83.7 MPH down from 2016, (88.6 MPH) and below major league average, (87.0 MPH). Despite this Hicks is slugging at a very high rate. It is extremely unlikely for him to keep up this pace while he takes pitches middle-middle for strikes and makes relatively weak contact.

This does not mean that Hicks is destined for the bench once again. If he maintains his swing rates he is going to continue to get on base at a high rate. A solid outfielder with a plus arm and an 15% walk rate is likely an everyday quality major league player. However, a player with a 53% Z-Swing% is not going to slug .500. Aaron Hicks might be for real, just not the slugger he has been thus far.

A portion of Yankee fans opposed these actions. Young fit in well as the team’s fourth outfielder last season, posting a 1.2 WAR in 140 games. He also owned a .972 OPS against left-handers, compared to Hicks’ .870. Simply put, Young did his job, which was to destroy lefties.

So, what makes Hicks an upgrade as a fourth outfielder?

Let’s factor in the trends of each player. Young is 32 and his offensive and defensive numbers have declined remarkably since his peak about five years ago in Arizona. Hicks is 26 and his production on the field and at the plate has risen. Notably, Hicks’ strikeout rate is down about eight percent from 2014 and his power numbers have hit new highs. Hicks knocked a career high 11 homers last year. Additionally, in 2014, 54% of Hicks’ hits came on liners and fliers, as opposed to grounders. Last season, that number rose to 63%. Hicks’ power trends show that he is quickly catching up to Young.

Without question, Hicks owns a brighter future than Young, barring a career-threatening injury or an unexpected downfall. Hicks is significantly better in the field than Young, who’s not as quick on the basepaths. Young totaled a -5.9 FRAA while Hicks posted a 6.2. On FanGraphs’ Speed Score, Hicks rated a 6.0 while Young rated a 4.4. Hicks proves faster on the field and the base paths, something highly valued in a bench option.

Even in Young’s strongest area, hitting against lefties, Hicks posts promising numbers:

Aaron Hicks in 2015 vs. Lefties: 101 AB, .307 AVG, 6 HR, 27 SO, .299 TAv

Chris Young in 2015 vs. Lefties: 153 AB, ..327, 7 HR, 28 SO, .339 TAv

Young carries a slight advantage against lefties. However, he is unusable against righties. Last year, he posted just a .182 batting average against right-handed pitching. The switch-hitting Hicks owned a .235 average against RHP, up from his .178 number the year before. The Yanks won’t receive much of a downfall against lefty pitchers when Hicks plays.

Finally, Hicks is the modern ‘Yankees outfielder,’ fitting into the mold of current Yankee types. Like Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, Hicks owns a combination of elite speed and moderate power. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs created a table using the Steamer600 projections, which equalizes playing time for each player. The projections directly show correlation between Hicks, Ellsbury, and Gardner, displaying their similarities.

It becomes obvious when you compare Hicks’ projections with Ellsbury and Gardner that he is a more favorable option. Who would fans rather have in the future, a fourth outfielder who works as a platoon, or a third Ellsbury/Gardner type?

So, while some Yankee fans wish the team hadn’t let a lefty-destroying platoon player walk, others understand that the more well-rounded, more valuable Hicks will yield a higher return for New York in the future.

Lead photo: Brad Rempel/USA Today Sports

Aaron Hicks

Hicks, 26, was an elite prospect just two years ago, ranking as a top-50 prospect from 2009 to 2011 in Baseball Prospectus’ annual rankings. He was consistently one of the toolsiest prospects in the minors, but struggled to put up numbers expected of such a talented player. A disappointing 2013 and 2014 crushed his value, and going into last season a fourth outfielder appeared to be his ceiling. Hicks bounced back in 2015, though. A .256/.323/.398 slash line with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 97 games isn’t spectacular, but compared to a horrible 2014 (.215/.341/.274), last season provided some optimism. Interestingly, Hicks was a different hitter in 2015. His walk rate was sliced in half, but his strikeouts also significantly decreased. Put simply, Hicks became a more aggressive hitter, also seeing 3.87 pitches per plate appearance compared to 4.23 the year before. That adjustment won’t work for all hitters, but it did for Hicks. One weakness for Hicks is his platoon split. Despite being a switch hitter, he batted just .235/.302/.359 against RHP in 2015, and .307/.375/.495 against southpaws. If he can’t hit righties more consistently, Hicks may never be able to start regularly in the outfield. It’s also worth mentioning that the Twins have accused Hicks of attitude problems in the past. Hicks still has the tools that made him a top prospect, and hopefully the one thing that held him back as a player, his bat, has improved a bit. This makes for a potentially exciting, albeit risky, player. He could continue to improve in 2016, offering 20/20 upside with an average that won’t kill anyone (looking at you, Stephen Drew) and an elite centerfield glove. At the same time, Hicks could crash spectacularly, returning to 2014 numbers. He’s a very volatile player, and his continued development will be interesting to watch. While his 10 percent and 90 percent projections are equally startling, a more reasonable expectation would be Hicks becoming a good fourth outfielder or below-average center fielder. If Hicks’ struggles against right-handed pitching does not change, he could begin to resemble 2015 Chris Young; and for 2016, Hicks will probably play the role of Young, barring a trade of Brett Gardner or Jacoby Ellsbury.

John Ryan Murphy

Like Hicks, Murphy was also once a prospect (no, seriously), just not nearly as good of one. Murphy never made it into Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects, but his last year before reaching the bigs, 2013, saw him as the Yankees third-best prospect. Unlike Hicks, Murphy has been relatively successful in his early chances in the majors. Last year, in his first full season with the big-league team, Murphy hit .277/.327/.406 in 172 plate appearances, with a .258 TAv. Just three home runs was a bit disappointing, but Murphy doesn’t project to have much more than 10 home-run power. What Murphy does project for, though, is a solid average. He won’t get on base as much as you would like, but a .270 average is just fine for a starting catcher in this day and age. The offensive bar for catchers isn’t as low as it is for shortstops, but good defense and at least some offensive value is enough for many teams. Murphy did have a .357 BABIP last year, though, so expecting a .277 average next season is a little optimistic. Still, with some more development, a .270/.320/.400 slash line is a reasonable expectation. Murphy’s defense isn’t anything special, but it is at least above average. Murphy is an unspectacular player, but the chances of him becoming a major-league regular is significantly higher than Hicks’. At the same time, his upside is significantly lower than the ceiling Hicks possesses. Murphy is most likely to be a boring, but consistent and average starter behind the plate for the Twins. He isn’t exciting like Hicks, but he could be just as valuable. Then again, I’m the high man on Murphy; others see him as a backup catcher. The 24-year-old is likely to receive the majority of starts behind the plate for the Twins in 2016.

Verdict

Personally, I don’t love the trade for the Yankees. I had some harsh words to say about it on Twitter (probably a little too harsh), and was met with some opposition. Most people, including me, can probably agree though that there’s a wide range of outcomes for this deal. The deal could look brilliant for the Yankees if Hicks’ strides in 2015 are real and he continues to improve, or horrible if Hicks returns to 2014 levels and Murphy becomes a solid starting catcher for Minnesota. The median result is most likely, though. In that scenario, Hicks is a solid fourth outfielder for the Yankees, and Murphy is a league-average starting catcher for the Twins. This outcome is what made me sour a bit on the trade. Based on position scarcity and overall value to the team, I’d prefer an average catcher to a good fourth outfielder or below-average center fielder. Also, trusting Sanchez as the Yankees’ “catcher of the future” is a bit iffier than having Murphy in that same position. Going into 2015, the general consensus on Sanchez was that he would move to first base. An impressive 2015 may have changed some minds, but Sanchez ending up behind the plate versus moving to first is probably still a 50/50 chance. Still, it’s easy to see why the Yankees made this trade, as the upside of Hicks is intriguing. It will take a while for the “winner” of this trade to emerge. For now, though, I’m torn on the winner, but I suppose that’s how trades should seem.

We’ll miss you, JR.  It was fun!

Lead photo courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports