We hope you are having a safe and productive holiday season so far and that your 2018 is ending on a positive note.

Some of you may have already heard the news but in case you haven’t, here it is: BP Bronx is joining the rest of the BP Locals in closing down. Now, this doesn’t mean you won’t see the BP Bronx writers ever again. Quite the opposite! You will be seeing everyone on the main Baseball Prospectus site!

That’s right. Our Yankees analysis will be published on the mothership—Baseball Prospectus. So this isn’t a goodbye, it’s a, “See you around!”

Derek Albin and EJ Fagan have already published pieces on the main site and you can look forward to reading more from them. The Bronx Beat Podcast will also continue! In fact, EJ is busy setting up the schedule for the next few weeks. I’ll give you a hint: there will probably be some discussion about Mariano Rivera making the Hall of Fame and we all hope that there will be a need for an emergency podcast for when Manny Machado signs with the Yankees. (Fingers crossed.)

The BP Bronx site will remain up on the interwebs so you will be able to look back fondly at the work of the great writers who have published their analysis on this site.

We want to thank you all for being loyal readers of the site for the past four years. From Andrew Mearns’s first post to Derek Albin’s last post and everything in between, there were more than 900 posts written on BP Bronx.

So on behalf of the entire staff at BP Bronx, past and present, thank you all once again for reading our stuff, commenting on the pieces and listening to the podcast.

Happy Holidays and have a safe New Year!

Stacey Gotsulias
Former Editor-in-Chief

For the uninitiated, read the introduction to DRC+, read why it’s the best metric, get into the comparisons with other hitting metrics, and take a look at how it performs. That’s just a handful of the good stuff this week. After I went through it all, the first thing I wanted to know was how the Yankees’ hitters stood up, particularly compared to wRC+, which has been my preferred metric historically (with apologies to True Average).

Here’s what I learned:

A trio of hitters deserved better

Whether signing late, sporadic playing time or something else entirely caused Neil Walker to struggle this season isn’t clear. If you showed me his 81 wRC+ a week ago, it would feel just right. His 96 DRC+, with a standard deviation (SD) of 11, tells another story. What’s better is that it’s easy to understand why. One likely reason is that the metric sees Walker’s low .257 BABIP as bit fluky (hence “D” standing for “deserved”). One more point to note is the SD, meaning that there’s high confidence Walker’s DRC+ was between 85 and 107. At the low end, Walker was still better than what wRC+ said. At the high end, Walker really got screwed. Given that Walker had marks of 111 and 113 in 2017 and 2016 respectively, it’s not hard to believe that Walker might have been better than advertised. His next team might be lucky to have them, and it’s not crazy to say the Yankees should consider bringing him back.

The next two hitters, Greg Bird, and Gary Sanchez have quite a bit of uncertainty, but their baseline DRC+ is certainly better than their wRC+. Bird’s DRC+ of 91 (SD of 15) tops his wRC+ of 81. Now, his 91 mark isn’t anything to write home about, but he wasn’t as awful as he seemed. Still, he’s got plenty to prove even though he had a ghastly .230 BABIP.

Sanchez’s baseline DRC+ was 97, but could have been as high as 115 or as low as 79. Anecdotally, The Kraken lined out a million times last season, and his .197 BABIP seems to reflect that. He also walked a career-best 12.3 percent of the time, which gives him further credit. wRC+ pegged Sanchez at 89, not terribly far off from his DRC+, but certainly worse. Given Sanchez’s talent, it’s pretty easy to believe in his DRC+ and the possibility that it might actually be on the positive side of standard deviation.

The hitters who confirmed the eye test

One of the reasons we’ll never get away from stats like home runs and batting average is because they are so much easier to see with the eye. For that reason, it’s hard to imagine someone saying that Didi Gregorius or Gleyber Torres suffered from some bad luck this season. Both displayed good power and patience at the dish and had very strong traditional numbers. To no surprise, both infielders’ wRC+ marks indicated the same: 121 for Gregorius and 120 for Torres. Yet, DRC+ pegged the former for 128 (11 SD) and the latter for 124 (12 SD).

DRC+ isn’t fully confident that they actually deserved better, as the downside of its uncertainty would bring the metric below both players’ wRC+. Still, it’s nice to see what at essentially amounts to a confirmation of the eye tests. It’s satisfying to know that Torres is the real deal and that Gregorius doesn’t merely take advantage of the short porch.

Aaron Hicks DRC+ and wRC+ were nearly identical, at 128 and 127 a piece. The SD of 12 indicates that there could be some disagreement, but for all intents and purposes, Hicks got what he deserved.

Not as good as we thought (but still good)

Bet you didn’t expect Aaron Judge to show up in this category. Neither did I. Alas, his 133 DRC+ (13 SD) is quite a bit lower than his 149 wRC+. In all likelihood, Judge’s sky-high .368 BABIP knocks him down a bit, because the only other thing he really does wrong is rack up the strikeouts. Judge carried a .357 BABIP in his monster rookie campaign, and his DRC+ of 162 (14 SD) was also lower than his wRC+ (172). Judge struck out just over 30 percent of the time in both campaigns. Going forward, I’m intrigued to see if Judge is one of those players that “outperforms” his DRC+ because he hits the ball so hard, which could keep his BABIP elevated.

Bet you’re not stunned that Giancarlo Stanton‘s DRC+ (114, 8 SD) didn’t meet his wRC+ (127). There’s no doubt that Stanton was quite productive, but he also saw his walk rate drop while posting his highest BABIP since 2014. For whatever it’s worth, Stanton’s DRC+ has been pretty volatile throughout his career. Here’s each season since he debuted in 2010: 110, 129, 144, 124, 157, 145, 110, 151, 114. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster in recent seasons, but we all know the ability is there for him to be a monster in the heart of the order.

In my eyes, Miguel Andujar has the most fascinating differential between DRC+ and wRC+. Per BP’s newest metric, Andujar had a 114 DRC+, plus or minus 10. wRC+ liked Andujar much more, at 128. In everything that’s been written about DRC+ this week, it’s been made clear that the stat accounts for things that are a bit more luck-driven rather than simply taken as earned (i.e. singles, triples). In other words, that’s why I’ve highlighted BABIP quite a bit in this post. Andujar’s .316 BABIP isn’t outlandish, but what scares DRC+ a bit is his low walk rate (4.1 percent). For the most part, drawing walks is a skill, and DRC+ stresses the importance of skill. If Andujar never improves his plate discipline, he could be susceptible to down years if he runs into poor BABIP luck. I think this is what his DRC+ is trying to tell us.

Do we really trust this guy?

Here’s the fun one: Luke Voit. He only had 161 plate appearances this season, and all but 13 of them were with the Yankees. Simply put, Voit raked. He hit 14 homers, got on base a ton (.405 OBP), and was a whole lot of fun to watch. DRC+ thinks he was pretty great too, giving him a 154 score albeit in a small sample size. Of course, DRC+ tempers the enthusiasm from his 187 wRC+. I don’t think anyone believes Voit is 187 wRC+ good. Ted Williams’ career wRC+ was 188, for reference. Is 154 reasonable? This is the guy DRC+ is most uncertain about on the Yankees, putting his range between 132 (still good!) and 176. Having only 161 trips to the plate will drive up anyone’s standard deviation, so it’s understandable that there’s such a large gap for Voit. Still, I think we can at the minimum take away that the Yankees were on to something when they acquired Voit. The front office has said as much regarding the information they had on him while he was in the Cardinals organization, and it appears that the team is pretty confident in him next year even though it’s fair to be skeptical.

Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro / USA TODAY Sports

EJ and Paul discuss Robinson Cano rumors, Ronald Torreyes, Paul Goldschmidt, and contract extensions.

From the start of his career through 2017, Paxton allowed only 0.7 home runs per nine innings. This season, he surrendered 23 homers in 160.1 innings, or 1.3 per nine frames. Pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia have had success in the Bronx despite giving up dingers at a similar rate, but they’re also not necessarily frontline starters like Paxton is expected to be.

More fly balls usually means more home runs, and that’s precisely what occurred to Paxton this season. Historically, Paxton has generated tons of grounders when he wasn’t striking out batters. In 2018, he gave up more fly balls than grounders for the first time in his career, and subsequently, more homers than ever.

It’s not totally clear why Paxton’s batted ball profile changed. His pitch location is basically the same (2018, 2017, 2016). Maybe, just maybe, one could argue that he’s elevating his pitches a tad more, but really, he basically challenges opponents to hit his fastball. Those linked heatmaps are pretty much all dark red over the middle of the plate. In terms of pitch selection, Paxton hasn’t wavered either. He predominantly relies on his fastball and cutter with a few curveballs mixed in. Certainly, the league’s hitting environment has changed, but why didn’t that affect Paxton when the fly ball revolution began in earnest in 2017?

If Paxton is truly a fly ball pitcher going forward, he’s going to continue to allow home runs, especially in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. On the bright side, maybe Paxton’s home run to fly ball rate is due for some regression. The 14.4 percent mark is comfortably above league average and way out of line with Big Maple’s career norms. If Paxton was league average (12.7 percent), he’d have allowed 20 homers in 160.1 innings, or 1.1 per nine innings. At ten percent, which is a little closer to his recent marks but not quite as good, he’d have given up 16 long balls, or 0.9 per nine innings.

Aside from some home run rate regression, DRA gives Paxton another vote of confidence. Despite 2017 being better from a results standpoint (i.e. ERA), the southpaw’s DRA that year was virtually the same as this season. He had a 2.63 DRA in 2017 and followed it up with a 2.67 mark this year. It’s quite a bit easier to rely on those marks than upon me pontificating about Paxton’s home run to fly ball rate!

There’s no debating that Paxton will be a good pitcher for the Yankees next season. The real question is: how good will he be? Aside from health, home runs allowed will likely tell the tale of Paxton’s career in pinstripes. If he essentially repeats this season, he’ll be a very good mid-rotation starter. If he regresses a bit or lives up to his DRA, he’s unequivocally an ace.

Batted ball rates from Fangraphs. Pitch heatmaps from Baseball Savant.

EJ and Scott discuss the James Paxton trade.

EJ, Scott and Derek discuss Sonny Gray and Manny Machado. They then draft players likely to be acquired or traded away by the New York Yankees before Spring Training.

EJ and Paul discuss rule changes rumored to be considered by MLB.

E.J. and Scott talk about the CC Sabathia resigning, then play the free agent game.

Spreadsheet link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XhZk4sHMTe11a57OTo7e75EsIN4hBWz9wBth6E297zs/edit?usp=sharing

With Gardner back in the mix, the Yankees have a bunch of outfielders on the roster, but only so much playing time to go around. Obviously, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are going to play as much as possible. Whether or not Stanton is essentially a full-time designated hitter again is a separate question. He seemed to get better in left field as 2018 went on, but maybe the team is still reluctant to play him there. Let’s not forget about Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier, though I’m sure we’d rather forget the former. Throw in the potential to sign a free agent like Bryce Harper, and things get really crowded. It may seem like there is an excess of outfielders, but unless the Yankees are extremely fortunate, at least one of these guys will get hurt next season. That means the 35-year-old Gardner is going to play to some extent. The question is: what’s his ideal usage?

Year after year, it seems like Gardner gets off to a torrid start offensively and wears down by the dog days of summer. The data above pretty much confirms that notion (with 2016 being an exception).  In 2015, Gardner peaked at plate appearance number 352. 2017 was a bit of a roller coaster; he topped off early at his 169th trip, cooled down for another 150 or so plate appearances, and plateaued again at 449. In 2018, he topped out at plate appearance number 249 and was pretty much all downhill thereafter.

Gardner is a max-effort player every single time he’s involved on the field. So it should be no wonder that his offensive output slows down as the year goes on, especially as he’s entered his mid-thirties. To maximize his production in 2019, he probably shouldn’t go to bat much more than 400 times, if possible. The days of 600-plus plate appearances are over.

Toward the very end of this season, I think we got the hint that the Yankees recognize that it’s time to curtail Gardner’s playing time. With Andrew McCutchen on the roster and Aaron Judge finally healthy, the outfield was full and Gardner was basically in a platoon with McCutchen. Considering Gardner’s struggles against southpaws and his well documented late season swoons, a similar plan would make sense in 2019.

Of course, the best laid plans are just that — plans. There’s always a chance that Gardner will be thrust into the thick of things should the dreaded injury bug strike. Still, the offseason is barely a few days old, so the team’s outfield intentions are still somewhat unknown. And, given the lineup construction after Judge returned, it seems reasonable to expect that the Yankees are aiming to limit Gardner’s time even if there are injuries. At this point of his career, he’s an excellent part-time player, and that should be the role he plays in 2019 no matter what happens around him.

Photo Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

EJ and Scott debate whether the Yankees should sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.