It is now August 1st and Gray owns a 5.56 ERA (4.42 FIP) in 103.2. Only four pitchers in baseball own a higher ERA. Aaron Boone’s comments after the game suggested that in such a close division race, the Yankees may change their strategy. When asked about Gray’s future in the rotation, Boone said, “That’s something that we’ll talk about now in the hours ahead, days ahead about what our plans will be going forward.” Considering how much Boone has advocated for Gray this season, it seems like he is more concerned than he was several months ago. Boone has a responsibility to help his team win.

What is the strategy though if the Yankees take Gray out of the rotation? Should he skip a few starts and come back? Should he stay in the bullpen all year? Should the Yankees let him continue to iron things out in the rotation? Boone and Brian Cashman have a big decision to make, and it is not as simple as rotation versus bullpen. The Yankees need a plan after that decision is made. Here are some options that the Yankees should strongly consider:

OPTION 1: THE PHIL HUGHES TREATMENT

Once upon a time, Phil Hughes was the source of headaches for Yankee fans. After mixed results for several seasons, Hughes hit rock bottom in 2013. He posted a 5.19 ERA and 4.50 FIP. In August of that year, Joe Girardi started to place Hughes on a short leash by having him pitch shorter outings, with David Huff ready in relief. Hughes continued to struggle, and Huff eventually replaced him in the rotation. It could, therefore, make sense for Boone to give Gray the Hughs treatment. See how he performs in his next outing, and give him a chance to correct things. Keep him on a short leash, and if the game gets out of hand, have Lance Lynn ready to enter the game. This is a solution where Gray remains in the rotation but on a very short leash. Lynn is a safety net.

OPTION 2: REMOVE FROM THE ROTATION TEMPORARILY

Aaron Boone spoke after the game about how Gray needs to attack the strike zone. When he falls behind in counts, he tries to nibble and he pays a price for it. Perhaps the solution then is to move Gray to the bullpen for a month. Airing it out for one inning may help Gray focus on attacking hitters, while also pitching in low leverage spots. If he succeeds in this role and begins to regain confidence, the Yankees can bring him back to the rotation in September. Expanded rosters will give the Yankees more flexibility if Gray does not perform well. This mitigates the damage in August but still aims to get Gray back on track.

OPTION 3: REMOVE FROM THE ROTATION PERMANENTLY

It is unlikely that Gray starts a postseason game, so the Yankees might as well have him adjust to the bullpen now. The case to remove him for the rest of the season is that the Yankees cannot afford to be patient in a close division race. They can no longer tolerate these three-inning outings, and the acquisition of Lynn changes things. The Yankees have nothing to lose by replacing Gray with Lynn or even Luis Cessa. At this point, the Yankees need someone who can keep them in the game every single week.

Photo credit: Noah K. Murray / USA Today

Yesterday I shared the big names that people have been talking about all year. I talked about players that could stand at the front of the rotation with Severino in a postseason race, but are less likely to be available. However, with a strong bullpen, and potential bounce backs from Tanaka and Gray in the second half, the Yankees may simply need an arm in the back of the rotation.

That is why I will look at the second tier of pitchers today. The second tier consists of players who are available but are regarded as back-end options. They are not top of the rotation starters, but these players could still help the Yankees clinch the division and offer potential upside.

TIER TWO: BACK OF THE ROTATION OPTIONS THAT SHOULD BE AVAILABLE

Cole Hamels (LHP, 34 years old)

Cole Hamels was an all-star as recently as 2016 when he posted a 3.32 ERA and a 3.98 FIP over 200 innings. Everything else aside from that shows a downward trend for the 34-year-old pitcher, who finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting four times during his career. His increased home run rates and his increased walk rates seem to indicate that his best years are behind him. He currently owns a 4.72 ERA, 5.20 FIP, and a 0.7 WAR in 114 innings pitched.

The upside that you are hoping for with Hamels is that he has a resurgence by going to a playoff team. It seems unlikely though that he will be Justin Verlander 2.0. Verlander was not as bad as Hamels has been for the last two seasons, and it is unlikely that his home run woes will be solved in Yankee Stadium. Could he be an upgrade at the back of the rotation? It seems unlikely given the trends that we have seen.

Tyler Skaggs (LHP, 27 years old)

Tyler Skaggs is having the best season of any pitcher on this list. Skaggs owns a 2.68 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 2.8 WAR. He was a former top prospect, but he has battled injuries throughout his career. This is also his first healthy season. His success this year can be attributed to his increased ground ball rate (47.7 GB%), and his increased changeup usage (12.5%). He is now throwing his changeup out of the zone more and getting more swings and misses, especially when facing right-handed batters.

The concern that I have with Skaggs is his innings and injury history. Between 2016 and 2017, he did not pitch more than 85 innings in a season. Can he really continue this production for the rest of the season, let alone in a postseason race? The Yankees want to trade for someone who can help them down the stretch, and the Yankees might hesitate to offer much for a player that has a limited track record.

Michael Fulmer (RHP, 25 years old)

A lot of fans were excited about a potential Michael Fulmer trade at the beginning of the year. Fulmer has had a disappointing season though. The 25-year-old, who is a former all-star and rookie of the year, currently owns a 4.50 ERA, 4.27 FIP, and a 1.2 WAR. His struggles this year can be attributed to his increased walk rate and his inability to put batters away. It is also worth noting that he was recently placed on the 10 disabled list with a Grade 1 oblique strain.

However, prior to an elbow injury that Fulmer suffered last year, he posted excellent numbers and was pursued aggressively in trade talks by many contending teams. Between 2016 and 2017, Fulmer posted a 3.45 ERA and was known for being a ground ball heavy pitcher. At the same time, he struggles to strike out batters. He throws hard, and his four-seamer and sinker both sit in the mid-90s. He also throws a slider and changeup, which sit in the upper 80s, and throws everything very regularly. It is possible that the Yankees could help him increase his strikeout rate through various tweaks, such as changes to pitch selection and frequency. The tools are certainly there for Fulmer to be successful, but the recent struggles, lack of strikeouts, and injury history are valid reasons for caution.

J.A. Happ (LHP, 35 years old)

J.A. Happ could be a steal at the trade deadline. Happ has accumulated a 4.18 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and 0.9 WAR in 114 innings. He would instantly be a reliable starter in the back of the Yankees rotation. Happ is making 13 million this year and he is a pure rental.

I am a big fan of Happ, not just because of his performance or assumed inexpensive cost. I like him because out of the players on this list, he comes with the most certainty. Happ has been in the AL East now for several years, and he has pitched very well. He contributed to the Blue Jays team that went to the ALCS, and he has pitched in big games at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park. None of that will be new to him. That is not the only reason the Yankees should target him, but it is certainly a bonus given his reliability. Having an easy transition does not hurt.

WHICH PITCHER SHOULD THE YANKEES AQUIRE?

I just mentioned how much I would be open to the idea of trading for Happ. I do not think he would cost very much since he is a 35-year-old rental. I also like the idea of going after Michael Fulmer. He has certainly struggled of late, but he has the tools to be a solid starter in the rotation for the next four seasons. I would be reluctant to give up much for Skaggs and Hamels given the concerns that I have for both of them down the stretch of the season.

“We certainly have been engaged for a long time, but we still are where we are because we just have not found the match that we’re comfortable with. Not that we don’t like players that we want to import to take us to another level, but so far we haven’t matched up because the demands just exceed what our comfort level is, and we’re still trying to find the right circumstance.”

There are several obstacles to trade talks at the moment. Cashman mentioned in the interview that there is a bit of a penalty when you have a deep farm system because, in negotiations, teams undervalue players. If the Yankees offer a player that is in their top ten, teams do not always recognize that the player would be in someone else’s top three.

The pitching market is also very different from previous years. There is no Chris Sale on the market. There is not a clear ace on a last place team trying to sell. The teams that offer potential aces are hesitant to sell, and the teams that are prepared to sell only offer back-end options.

That is why I have divided the available pitchers into tiers. Tier one is the high caliber pitching on teams reluctant to sell. Tier two is the lower caliber pitching on teams that are more eager to sell. I will examine the first tier today, and the second tier tomorrow.

TIER ONE: HIGH CALIBER / NOT NECESSARILY AVAILABLE

Jacob DeGrom (RHP, 30 years old)

If you have not heard the DeGrom trade rumors over the last several months, you have probably refrained from watching the YES Network. He is having the best season of any pitcher on this list. He owns a 1.68 ERA through 123.1 innings pitched, and he has already accumulated 6 WAR. A deal is unlikely given that the Yankees would have to deal with the Mets. If he is made available though, one has to imagine that the Yankees will make a competitive offer.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, 29 years old)

There were a lot of rumors in June about Bumgarner, and they seem to have slowed down a bit. In theory, this is a fit for both clubs. It does not appear that the Giants will make the playoffs, and Bumgarner will be a free agent after the 2019 season. If the Giants move him, they’ll likely want high ceiling outfielders and relievers.

The Yankees meanwhile have plenty of outfielders and relievers to spare. Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, Jonathan Holder, and Albert Abreu are all possible names that the Yankees could float. Baumgarner has pitched well since coming back from the DL with a broken hand, and his postseason resume (7-3, 2.11 ERA) speaks for itself.

Carlos Martinez (RHP, 26 years old)

Martinez is the most likely to be available out of all the pitchers in this tier. He is also arguably the most reliable. He is under contract for the next five years, and during the last three years, he has averaged a 3.23 ERA and 193 innings pitched per season.

He also carries the least upside of the pitchers in this tier. His best season may have been in 2016 when he had a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings pitched. This year, he owns a 3.39 ERA in 95.2 innings pitched. His strikeout rate is fairly in line with his career numbers, but he is walking more batters (4.5 BB/9) and has struggled a bit more with his control and command this year. Derek Albin wrote a piece about Martinez last week.

Blake Snell (LHP, 25 years old)

I did not include Chris Archer on this list, because he does not exactly fit into either tier. The Rays will be reluctant to sell a controllable pitcher to a division rival, and Archer is not exactly elite at the moment. However, Blake Snell is a pitcher on the Rays who fits the definition of high caliber. He is having an excellent season, and if he is made available, the Yankees should make a strong offer.

This season, Snell has accumulated 4.2 WAR and a 2.27 ERA in 119 innings pitched. He has not gone above 130 innings pitched in his young career though, so he will have to be monitored very carefully. He strikes out batters and generates plenty of swings and misses. He may be the least reliable of this tier given his limited track record and lack of accumulated innings, but he undeniably possesses upside. He could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come.

WHICH PITCHER SHOULD THE YANKEES TARGET?

The Yankees should target the pitcher on this list that comes at the lowest price. All of the pitchers in this tier would instantly make the Yankees better. Having DeGrom or Bumgarner at the top of the rotation is amazing to dream about in the postseason. Having young controllable arms like Martinez and Snell would make the Yankees better for the next five years. I have reservations about Snell given his innings, but I still think that all of these pitchers can help the Yankees win in October. Cashman should not fixate on one player. He should trade for the best player on this list at the best available price.

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic, especially when you consider the depth and farm system of this team. Here are a couple of thoughts as the team braces for June.

1. Potential Trade With The St. Louis Cardinals

If you told me that the Yankees would receive poor results from Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray in the first two months, I would not have predicted at .685 winning percentage. However, the poor pitching results have been mitigated by an unbelievable offense.

This unsurprisingly brings up the question of what the Yankees will do at the trade deadline. The starting pitching, even with the eventual return of Jordan Montgomery, is still a significant weakness that needs to be addressed. The Yankees have the prospects and depth to make just about any deal happen.

The Yankees should target a true difference maker, or at the very least, a young pitcher that is controllable for the foreseeable future. Jaime Garcia is not going to cut it. Madison Baumgarner and Jacob DeGrom have been the big names mentioned of late, but these players will be tough to acquire due to pure availability.

It is interesting to envision a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals though. The team is filled with starting pitchers, and they could really use infield help. What about creating a package involving one of the many Yankee infielders for Carlos Martinez or Jack Flaherty? Acquiring a player like Martinez is more of a dream, and would require the Cardinals to be out of contention. Flaherty might be more reasonable though, perhaps even more realistic than DeGrom or Baumgarner.

Flaherty is just 22-years-old, and he has been recently ranked as the number 53 prospect in all of baseball. This season, he has posted a 2.62 ERA through only 34 innings (6 starts), and he has four pitches that are average to above average. Flaherty will not overpower hitters like Baumgarner or DeGrom, but it is not hard to imagine a career like Jose Quintana. I am very high on Flaherty, and I think he could be an exciting acquisition.

2. Rookie(s) of The Month

Did you think you could read this without hearing about how great Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have been? Torres was recently named the AL Rookie of the Month for May, and during that time, he batted .317/.374/.659 with a 1.032 OPS. He drove in 24 runs in 24 games. The 23-year-old Andujar, on the other hand, has batted an impressive .294/.317/.529 with a .830 OPS since being called up. His 26 extra base hits lead all rookies.

So let’s take a moment to remember when fans were concerned about second and third base at the beginning of the season. Remember when Torres looked rusty in spring training? All of a sudden, Neil Walker is on the bench, and Brandon Drury is in AAA, while the two rookies make the headlines at the MLB level.

Brian Cashman deserves so much credit for what’s happening. The lineup is young, cheap (by Yankee standards), and the best in baseball. Few teams are going to have as much success as the Yankees in the next five to ten years, and the rookie performances are just a microcosm of that. Cashman’s role in building this team cannot be emphasized enough. Excellent performance by the rookies, and as usual, outstanding performance by Cashman.

Photo credit: Benny Sieu / USA TODAY Sports

1. Globalizing Baseball

The announcement that the Yankees may play a game in London in 2019 got me thinking about the international reach of baseball. I also thought about the possibility of MLB bringing more teams to Canada.

Montreal would seem like the obvious choice. The Expos left in 2004 for a multitude of reasons, but primarily because of their inability to obtain funds for a new ballpark. The problem will always be the ballpark. Murray Brown, who writes about business and baseball for Forbes said, “Montreal as an international market makes sense… The biggest issue will always be the stadium. Right now, if somebody walked up and said we’ve got $500 million or $700 million to commit to a ballpark, I would imagine that something would happen.”

Imagine if the Oakland Athletics or the Tampa Bay Rays relocated to Montreal. That is something that I would be a strong supporter of. Both teams need a new ballpark anyways, and both teams constantly face financial constraints in their respective markets. There is also a case for the teams to be added through expansion, something that the commissioner seems to support. This is all hypothetical, but still interesting to think about. If investors came together though to build a stadium, I would 100 percent be on board.

2. Future Spending

The Manny Machado and Aaron Judge drama also got me thinking about next offseason. I know that I am in the minority on this, but I do not think the Yankees should go out and spend a crazy amount of money unless the signings present true upgrades at positions of weakness. I do not subscribe to the idea of “sign a bunch of talent and figure it out later.”

My first reason is that the Yankees have players who are going to get expensive. Keeping Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and others will require a certain level of financial flexibility. It would be one thing if the Yankees had already extended these players, but that is not the case. Secondly, like all free agent signings, you are still paying for much of the work that they have done in the past. Machado and Bryce Harper are obviously a bit different since they are so young.

With that being said, I think Machado may be the only free agent I would really be interested in. Depending on how Miguel Andujar, Brandon Drury, and Didi Gregorious perform this year, signing someone like Machado could make sense. Players like Clayton Kershaw though? Those signings are tempting, but a lot less enticing.

3. Opening Day

I am extremely excited for opening day. It will be refreshing to watch the newly constructed lineup play some meaningful baseball. What I am not excited about is Greg Bird’s right foot injury. It seems unlikely that he will play on opening day.

I love Greg Bird as a player, but I am growing more and more concerned with his inability to remain healthy. Between last year’s ankle injury and the 2016 shoulder surgery, Bird has only played in 94 games since his MLB debut in 2015. Bird can undoubtedly hit when healthy, but his inability to stay on the field is hampering his ability to give the Yankees production and certainty. Wasn’t this the spring that Bird was supposed to finally be healthy?

With that being said, the Neil Walker signing looks amazing now. I am a lot more confident in Walker as the backup than I ever was in Chris Carter. This will also give Tyler Wade more of an opportunity to prove himself at the MLB level. Remember two weeks ago when I wrote about the depth that the Yankees have? The depth will be tested from the very beginning.

LOOKING AHEAD

Opening day is on Thursday, March 29, and the game is scheduled to start at 3:37 pm. The Yankees play their last spring training game tonight at 7:35 pm, and it is MLB’s free game of the day. It can be accessed online and on the mobile app.

1. Clint Frazier

Clint Frazier’s long-term future with the team is uncertain. Even when Frazier returns to full health, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are the corner-outfielders for the foreseeable future. Centerfield will be occupied by a combination of Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, and perhaps even players like Estevan Florial and Brett Gardner. These options provide barriers for Clint Frazier. He does not currently possess the attributes to play centerfield, and he is blocked in the corners.

With that being said, there are two possibilities for Frazier going forward. The first option is that the Yankees let Gardner walk after this year. Frazier could replace Gardner as the third corner outfielder who can DH play the field on other days to give players rest. The second option is that the Yankees trade Frazier. He is a player that may possess more value to other teams. He could also bring young pitching to the team. I like Clint Frazier as much as anyone, but it seems that his options with the Yankees are limited.

2. Neil Walker

The Yankees replaced the older, more expensive, and less versatile Chase Headley/Todd Frazier combination with the younger, less expensive, and arguably more productive Brandon Drury/Neil Walker combination. While I have already discussed the upside and excitement about Drury in previous posts, I am just as excited about the Walker signing.

First and foremost, the Yankees are paying him a fraction of what he is actually worth. You cannot resist one year and $4 million. He switch hits, he gets on base, and he limits strikeouts. His contact abilities will balance a lineup that is bound to strike out a good bit this season. Additionally, ZiPS projects Walker for a .262/.338/.456 (112 OPS+) batting line. Not bad for a player who can play multiple positions, especially on a one year contract.

This move also does not block Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres in the long term. Andujar has only played 58 games at Triple-A, and this signing allows the Yankees to bring Andujar and Torres up slowly, without forcing them into an MLB role if they are not ready. When the players are ready, they will sort it out later. The versatility of Drury and Walker make that possible.

3. Depth

I cannot remember a time when the Yankees had this much depth. In the outfield, the Yankees have six legitimate starting outfielders. In the infield, the Yankees have two top prospects at Triple-A, along with players like Drury, Walker, and Wade at the MLB level. The Yankees have the best bullpen in all of baseball, with interesting arms in the minors. The Yankees also have more starting pitching depth than you would expect. Chance Adams, who has emerged as a fan favorite, pitched to a 2.88 ERA at Triple-A last year. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, and even Adam Warren present depth that other teams lack. If the Yankees were to suffer an injury at any position this year, I have confidence in their replacement. This puts them in a strong position to win the division.

LOOKING AHEAD

Opening Day is exactly two weeks away. In the meantime, there is more spring training to enjoy this weekend. The Yankees play the Astros on Friday, the Tigers on Saturday, and the Marlins on Sunday. The Saturday game will air on the MLB Network at 1:05 PM, and Masahiro Tanaka will be taking the mound.

1. Aaron Boone

Aaron Boone has been a refreshing presence this spring. Joe Girardi was great during his time in pinstripes, but on a personality level, Boone represents the exact opposite of Girardi in many ways. During the games, you can see him engaging with the players in a way that Girardi never did. You can even hear him yelling from the dugout and cheering on players. He may not keep that up throughout the season, but it certainly adds a level of energy that did not exist before.

His leadership and communication off the field is also an excellent bonus. Boone was a hero in the postseason and was also benched during big games in his career. As a result, it seems that his experiences allow him to connect with players differently. There were reports about how he built relationships with players in the offseason, and there are players like CC Sabathia who have played with him. This clearly seems like a different situation this year. The Yankees replaced the business-driven Girardi with the communication-driven Boone.

2. The Infield (part 2)

Last week I wrote about how much I love the Brandon Drury trade. I look forward to seeing the improvements he made after working with hitting coaches Craig Wallenbrock, Tim Laker, and Robert Van Scoyoc during the offseason. This is the crew that transformed the swings of J.D. Martinez and Chris Taylor.

This presents an interesting situation for Miguel Andujar. I like Andujar a lot, and I think there is a fair argument for him starting at third base on Opening Day. We know that he can handle AA and AAA pitching so facing MLB caliber players is the next logical step for him. At the same time, sending down Andujar for a month allows the Yankees to evaluate the true talent of Tyler Wade. Wade, like Andujar, mastered AAA pitching, and I wonder if the Yankees are trying to gauge how he performs in a full-time role. It is not an easy decision, but I think it is reasonable to take a month and evaluate the talent of Wade. Andujar will get his chance.

3. Jordan Montgomery

I am really excited about Jordan Montgomery this season. It is easy to forget about him with all of the talent that is on this team. Last year, he was not Judge, Sanchez, or Severino, but he was extremely effective before being sent down to the minors to monitor his innings. He also mentioned to Dan Martin a couple of weeks ago that he is still working on improvements, with a specific focus on implementing his changeup more. Even without his changeup, and heavy reliance on his curveball, he was still the best rookie pitcher in baseball. He finished the season with a 3.88 ERA in 155 1/3 innings. Maybe more people would have noticed if Judge and Sanchez stopped hitting so many home runs.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Yankees play the Atlanta Braves Friday at 1:05 pm. Tanaka will be taking the mound, and the game will be aired on the YES Network.

Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

Now let’s get started.

1. THE INFIELD

I absolutely love the Brandon Drury trade. While he will primarily play third base, he can also play second base, first base, and left field. He also hit .267/.317/.447 (92 wRC+) in 480 big league games last year. At the end of the day, Cashman addressed the team’s biggest need by trading two mid-level prospects.

I also think it is interesting to compare Drury and Headley. They provide similar production, but Drury is cheaper, younger, and can play more positions. This move doesn’t really block Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, or Tyler Wade in a significant way. If the homegrown talent is productive, then Drury will be an excellent utility player. If players need more time in the minors though, this trade provides necessary insurance. Either way, this trade seems like a big win for the present and the future.

2. THE RIVALRY

The Red Sox and Yankees will both be large powerhouses entering this season, and I could not be happier. Baseball is always more fun when these two teams are good.

Despite the J.D. Martinez acquisition, I am still picking the Yankees as the favorites to win the division. Yes, the Red Sox won the division last year and added Martinez. However, when you factor full seasons of David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Sonny Gray, and (hopefully) Greg Bird, along with Giancarlo Stanton and a much younger infield, the Yankees are the easy pick for me. They have upside, they have depth, and the strong farm system provides flexibility at the deadline that other teams lack.

 3. OPENING DAY STARTER

The opening day starter should be Luis Severino. I think a strong case can be made for Masahiro Tanaka, and I like Tanaka more than most. I think he is going to bounce back this year and produce numbers that are similar to his 2016 season. At the same time, I think that Severino is an important part of the Yankees’ future, and the Yankees need to give him as many “big game” opportunities as possible. Opening Day is one of these opportunities. It is an opportunity to make the big stage feel natural and routine. Additionally, Severino was the third best pitcher in the American league last year. While that may be hard for Severino to replicate this year, I think he has earned this opening day start with his performance. Give the ball to Severino.

LOOKING AHEAD

The first game of spring training is tomorrow against the Tigers at 1:05pm. The game will be aired on the YES Network, and a delayed taping will be played later on the MLB Network. It’s always nice to enjoy stress free baseball but before we know it, April will arrive, and the Yankees will begin the battle for the AL East.