Blake Rutherford was the Yankees’ No. 1 pick in the June’s draft. He is a high school bat with tons of power potential. BP’s own Christopher Crawford saw Rutherford as the “best prep bat in this class.” This is high praise and it seems Rutherford is already living up to the expectations.

Before we get into the numbers I must acknowledge that trying to predict a kid’s future baseball success based on his rookie-ball stats is nearly impossible; like, 0-to-15 percent accurate depending on which statistical model you reference. One of the main reasons their predictability is so low is that rookie ball is only half of a season; you can’t accurately judge any player based on 100 at bats. That being said, there are specific data points we can concentrate on which can give us a better picture of how successful a player may become or at least what they may need to improve on if they are to become successful.

As you can see from Rutherford’s line, he had an amazing rookie-league campaign, especially his time with the Pulaski Yankees of the advanced Appalachian League. He ranked 32nd – among minor-league players with at least 100 at bats – with an OPS of .985. If you only included his time in advanced rookie ball (Appalachian League) – of which most of his plate appearances came from – he ranked eighth. However, despite his phenomenal first half-season there are some concerns which I will address below.

Most statistical models that try to forecast minor league players look at a narrow set of key variables. For those in rookie ball the number of significant data points becomes even more narrow. For instance, at Triple-A there may be 10 data points that can help in forecasting players, but at the rookie league level there may only be six that are significant.

For all models, age is a main variable. Rutherford is 19-years-old, which is older than your typical high school draftee. This actually hurts Rutherford’s outlook in most models. The reasoning is that since he is older he has less time until he reaches his prime years, which could mean he will not have as many prime years during his career. This is because there is an average max age where a player’s performance starts to drop off. I have not seen sufficient enough evidence to fully buy into this notion especially when it comes to a player like Blake Rutherford who seems could be already closing in on his prime years. Age is just one of the variables used in most models to predict minor league players.

Another variable that has been determined by sabermatricians to be somewhat significant in predicting whether a minor league player will reach the highest level is strikeout percentage (K%). Walk rate is not nearly as important when it comes to forecasting players in rookie ball as strikeout rate is. This intuitively makes sense. Pitchers in rookie ball don’t have the best control so a hitter exercising great patience could rack up a ton of walks. You don’t necessarily have to be a good hitter to do that. A player’s K% on the other hand is a little more telling. Rutherford’s total K% during his rookie league season was 23.1%. To put this in context, your average major-leaguer strikes out 20 percent of the time. It is not uncommon to see young hitters in the minor leagues with higher than normal strikeout rates. That being said it is a little troubling that Rutherford is not exercising patience at the plate. At least initially, it seems he has taken the approach to swing at everything knowing that a majority of the time the pitcher will be missing over the plate. While this may work at the rookie and even Single-A level, it becomes increasingly hard to maintain the higher one climbs.

ISO is a stat that measures a player’s raw power and power is another key predictor of big league performance. Rutherford showed a good amount of slugging ability this season, finishing the year with a total ISO of .219. The average ISO for your typical major league batter is .140. No one is doubting this kid’s ability to hit for extra bases. It also goes in line with what his strategy has been thus far, which is trying to hit everything as hard as he can at the risk of striking out. This power is a good sign for Rutherford as there has been some evidence that this skill could be transferable to the next level.

Most of us know that BABIP can be used to understand if a player could be due for regression. The higher the BABIP, the better chance the player has at experiencing negative regression in the future and vice versa. In Rutherford’s case, his limited plate appearances makes it hard to establish a proper baseline for BABIP. However, going by the fact the average hitter has a BABIP that hovers around .300, I would say Rutherford’s .446 could mean he has been over-performing a little. The level of regression is dependent on establishing an individual baseline, but needless to say I would not expect Rutherford to be able to sustain this type of ball-in-play success as he moves up the organization.

I think it is safe to say Rutherford is – if nothing else – surpassing expectations. The club definitely saw potential or they would not have drafted him, but it has been a pleasant surprise to see him break out of the gate so quickly. That being said, fans should temper their expectations when it comes to the Yankees fast tracking Rutherford to the big leagues. Even Mike Trout took 2 1/2 years to get to the show and Rutherford had a better rookie-ball season than Trout did. There…I did it. I somehow compared Rutherford to Mike Trout. The jinx is on.

If I had to project Rutherford right now based on what his limited Rookie league stats show us I would say he will follow a path similar to Javier Baez of the Cubs. Baez struck out a lot when they first called him up, but has been able to turn that around to an extent and has become a more complete hitter. If Rutherford remains content to keep striking out in order to increase his power he may find himself in the minors longer than anticipated.

Fun fact: Mike Trout’s strikeout rate hovered around 15-17% during his 2 1/2 years in the minor leagues at all levels.

Photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

There… I mentioned it. Now we can move on to the actual game, which was quite good.

After the dust settled from the testosterone fireworks of the first three innings the score was 3-1 Jays. As previously mentioned, Severino had been ejected from the game leaving Johnny Wholestaff to string together at least eight innings, and they did just that. After Jonathan Holder came in for Severino and gave up two runs in 1 1/3 innings of work, relievers James Pazos, Kirby Yates, Richard Bleier and Adam Warren held the Blue Jays scoreless through 5 2/3 innings. Dellin Betances was shaky once again and nearly coughed it up in the ninth, but Tommy Layne came in and cleaned up the mess and in the process made one of the most heads up plays I have seen a pitcher make in a long time (See The Highlight below).

Yankee bats where mostly quiet all game long until the Blue Jay’s Jason Grilli came in and attempted to close it out. Grilli entered in the ninth with the score 2 to 3 and he would not make it out alive. After a quick groundout by Chase Headley, Mark Teixeira summoned the Tex of old and hit a mammoth solo home run to left center that tied the game at 3. Didi Gregorius then hit an opposite field single which was followed by another tape measure, “might-bring-rain” shot by Aaron Hicks. After that the wheels on the Blue Jay bus started falling off. When it was all said and done the Yankees had managed to overcome the early exit of their starter and manager as well as a ninth inning comeback by the Jays to win the game 7-5.

It should be noted that by avoiding the sweep the Yankees are still technically in contention for a wild card spot. That being said, their chances are not good. In fact Baseball Prospectus’s Playoff Odds gives them a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs (in reality this is 0.1%). If however, the remaining games are as exciting as this one, it may be worth tuning in no matter if they are officially eliminated or not.

The Play: Hicks’s Go-Ahead Homer (+.419 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Mark Teixeira (2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI)
Blue Jays: J.A. Happ (7.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 K)

Notes

– Reliever J.R. Graham was outrighted to Triple-A Scranton eliminating him from the 40 man roster. He last pitched in the big leagues in May of this year for the Minnesota Twins.
– Luis Severino was ejected for the first time ever in this game. The umpire who sent him to the showers was Todd Tichenor. It was the eighth time Tichenor has ejected a player/coach in the 2016 season, more than any other umpire in major-league baseball.

The Quote

“Gary, don’t pick it up.”- Tommy Layne referring to the ball he fielded to force the second out at home in the bottom of the ninth.

The Highlight: Layne Tags Home

Up Next

The Yankees will kick off a three game home series against their ultimate rival the Boston Red Sox tomorrow at 7:05 p.m. ET. A couple of weeks ago the Red Sox all but sealed the coffin on the Yankees’ 2016 season by sweeping that four game series.

The Yankees will look to Luis Cessa to get things back on what little track is left. In 2016, Cessa has thrown 58 innings for the big league club and 77 at Triple-A and there is a night and day difference in the results from each level. For the Yankees Cessa has a 2.3 HR/9 and a 5.8 K/9. For the Railriders he had a HR/9 of 0.9 and a K/9 of 8.0. That being said, the Yankees can live with outings like Cessa’s last one where he went six innings, giving up two runs while striking out 6.

Beantown will roll out David Price for the 34th time this season. Price last took the mound in Baltimore where he lasted seven innings, giving up three runs on six hits while striking out five. Price’s ERA (3.90) would make you believe he is having a down year, but if you take a look at his WARP – 6.6 thus far – you can see he is actually out-producing the 2015 version of David Price who put together a 6.3 WARP.

Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports

Bryan Mitchell – the starting pitcher for the Yankees – did not deserve the outing he was handed. Simply put, his defense was sloppy. Both Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge had two errors and for the most part these errors were meaningful; meaning they led to runs. In fact, according to Win Probability Added, Judge’s run allowing error in the second was the most significant play of the game. A throwing error by Gary Sanchez in the third also led to a key Dodger run. To be fare, Mitchell did give up eight hits, but only two of his six runs allowed were earned.

A bright spot of this game was the performance of minor league journeyman Richard Bleier. Before this game Bleier had only thrown 14 innings at the major league level. He threw four scoreless innings in this game and struck out three in the process. If the Yankees expect to make the playoffs they will need their bullpen to provide more relief innings like what Bleier gave them tonight.

I mentioned this game was sloppy defensively on the Yankees’ side. The same term could be used for their offense in the game. The Yankee batters looked sluggish. They only collected four hits and most of the balls put in play – besides for Castro and Judge’s solo home runs – were weakly struck; lazy fly balls and routine grounders. Bottom line New York did not look like a playoff team tonight. I am not saying they can’t get the spark back, but in this game they showed no fire at all.

It’s possible the baby bombers are starting to feel a little pressure or they may simply be starting to lose stamina. I am not overly concerned yet. There are still 19 games left in the season and the team is only two games back of the Orioles for the second Wild Card spot. That being said – after this game – the Yankee coaching staff will probably have the players working on their fundamentals before game two in an attempt to eliminate another game like this.

The Play: Judge’s 2nd Inning Error (+.171 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Starlin Castro (2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI)
Dodgers: Howie Kendrick (2 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI)

Notes

– Tyler Austin collected his first Golden Sombrero (4 strikeout game) as a major leaguer. It happens to all ball players at some point.
– With an Orioles loss and a Blue Jay win the Yankees remain two games out of a wild card spot.

The Quote

“He did a really good job and somewhat rested some of the other guys for us.” – Manager Joe Girardi speaking of the performance of reliever Richard Bleier

The Highlight: Judge Goes Big Fly

Up Next

Game two of the three game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers should be an exciting one due in large part to the pitching matchup. Julio Urias – the young phenom for LA – will take on the weathered veteran for the Yankees, CC Sabathia. Urias – in a way – is like a young Sabathia. Sabathia and Urias are both left handed and while Sabathia may have thrown his fastball harder during his prime, both have a sweeping slider and devastating changeup.

Urias in his last three starts has been solid. His recent success is pretty easy to understand; he is walking less and striking out more. He has also not allowed a home run since August 3rd. Sabathia on the other hand has been going in the opposite direction. His last three starts bore two losses and while his strikeout and walk rate have remained relatively stable he has been giving up home runs at a terrific pace (five homers in his last three starts).

Photo credit: Brad Penner / USA Today Sports

The season is not over. The season is not over. Why does it feel like the season is over? Overall I would consider myself an optimist in life. However, when it comes to sports the pessimism in me comes out. I try to look at the season with an objective eye, but it is difficult to do at times. With the Yankees losing to the Orioles in this game, and Boston creaming Oakland, the Yankees are 5 1/2 games back of the second wild card spot.

There are still 28 games left in the 2016 season so by no means are the Yankees done, but with every loss the pessimistic thoughts become more and more warranted. The bottom line is the Yankees need a few series sweeps to assure they will be in contention for the rest of the season assuming the teams they are trailing keep winning at the same clip.

This game offensively was bad. Both teams struggled at the plate and while the Orioles had 8 hits there weren’t many that were hit hard. Even Adam Jones’ homerun in the fifth only left the bat at 95 mph. The offensive woes were mainly due to the solid performance of both starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia had a decent outing by going six innings, allowing as many hits and only one earned run which was the Jones home run. Kevin Gausman was even better. He allowed just two hits and struck out eight in six scoreless innings. Both teams’ bullpens did their job by not allowing a single run in the final three innings.

As mentioned before, the hitting for both teams was atrocious – partly due the great pitching – but the Yankee hitters were especially awful. The Yankees collected only four hits and only one was a ball hit in the air. They were slightly better than last game where they only managed to get two hits. They have now been shut out two games in a row.

I see this game as a big loss. The clock is ticking and the team needs to find a sense of urgency. At this point, I don’t know if Joe Girardi will be able to find that insistence of winning in the veterans, rookies or both. Expectations – for the most part – are low considering the team shipped out key veterans at the trade deadline, but with the playoffs within smelling distance one can’t help but hope that the baby bombers put together a little run.

The Play: Adam Jones’ 5th Inning Homer (+.117 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: CC Sabathia (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 K)
Orioles: Adam Jones (2 for 4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI)

Notes

– The following players were called up from Triple A on September 2nd: Nick Goody, Rob Refsnyder and Luis Severino.
– Sabathia reached a career mark of 2,700 strikeouts.

The Quote

“Sunday’s game is probably the most important game of the season.” – Manager Joe Girardi talking about the upcoming game against the Orioles.

The Highlight: Hardy in a Pickle

Up Next

The Yankees will play the final game of this three game series against Baltimore  at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The starting pitcher for the Bombers will be the seemingly unpredictable Michael Pineda. Pineda has been really good and really bad at times this season. However, he may be more predictable than one might think. According to his earned runs allowed by game, he seems to be good for a solid outing about every third start. He hasn’t really had more than three terrible starts in a row. He allowed five earned runs in his last two outings meaning he may be a strong candidate for fantasy players looking for a solid spot starter. That being said the Orioles – with their power potential – can blow up any starter at any time.

The Orioles will send Wade Miley to the mound to face the Yankees. Miley has be underwhelming this season, but has been more effective than his numbers show. His DRA of 3.90 is not great, but his ERA is greatly underperforming his FIP which confirms the notion that his numbers aren’t telling the whole story. Miley has struggled somewhat in the second half of the season, but he has looked better in his last two outings. However, much like his counterpart in this game Miley has not been consistent from start to start.

Photo: Tommy Gilligan / USA Today Sports

I have watched more games at Kauffman Stadium than any other ballpark in major league baseball. In fact, its one of my favorite places to take in a game. It’s where I saw my first pro baseball game and it’s where I saw Derek Jeter play in person for the last time. In the not-so-distant past, Yankee fans would have taken over “The K” and chants of “Let’s go Royals” would have been drowned out by the matching chant of “Let’s go Yankees”. Over the last three seasons the Royals have changed that tradition.

As a youngster growing up in Kansas I rooted for the Yankee team of Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter and Tino Martinez instead of a Royals team void of stardom – besides the occasional all-star (think Beltran, Dye, etc.) and success. Watching this game reminded me of my childhood, but it also reminded me that times have changed.

Kansas City — for the third straight year — is in the midst of a playoff hunt along with the Yankees, but it just feels sometimes like the Royals are miles ahead. The nostalgia that I felt during this game has nothing to do with the x’s and o’s, but I feel it is important to keep the big picture in mind and learn from the past. The Yankees front office is making moves to prepare the team for what will hopefully be a short rebuild phase. Part of that process is starting young guys — getting them valuable playing time. To me, that is what this game against the Royals epitomized. Austin, Judge and Sanchez — all young players — started this game and they will all most likely become integral parts to the Yankees’ future success.

Another young starter in this game, that we sometimes forget is still fairly young, was Michael Pineda. It was a typical Pineda performance. He went seven innings, allowed three earned runs and struck out eight. All of Pineda’s runs were given up in the first inning which — in the end — proved to be his swan song. The Royals did score five more runs to go along with the five runs the Yankees scored making it even more apparent that the first inning was what ultimately sealed the victory for KC.

The Yankee bats weren’t necessarily cold, but they weren’t exactly hot either. Gregorius and Austin each had two hits and Gregorius drove in two of the five Yankee runs. Give credit to the Royals’ starting pitcher Dillon Gee who lasted six innings only giving up one run.

Both bullpens were subpar. The Royals pen gave up four runs while the Yankee relievers gave up five. The Yankees kept it close as they strung a few hits together late, but it wasn’t meant to be as they fell to the Royals 8–5. It would seem that manager Joe Girardi believed this was directly related to the unfavorable balls and strikes calls his team was receiving. He was run from the game in the eighth inning after arguing said pitches. He was not alone, however, as multiple Yankee hitters showed signs of frustration about the calls. These excuses must be short term ones as the Yankees find themselves taking on the defending champions two more times over the next two days – both games containing playoff implications.

The Play: Morales’ RBI Single (+.084 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Didi Gregorius (3 for 5, 2 R, 2 RBI)
Royals: Alcides Escobar (1 for 4, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI)

Notes

– Gary Sanchez extended his hitting streak to eight games with a 1 for 4 performance.
– Didi Gregorius extended his hitting streak to ten games.
– With a Baltimore loss, the Yankees – even with the loss – are still only 3 games back from the second wild card slot.

The Quote

“I’m not really surprised at this point.” – Joe Girardi speaking about Gary Sanchez winning AL Player of the Week for the second week in a row.

The Highlight: Sanchez Guns Down Gordon

Up Next

The Royals will host the Yankees at Kauffman Stadium for game two of the three game series on Tuesday at 8:15 p.m. The Yankee starter will be Masahiro Tanaka who put on a dominating performance in his last two starts. In those starts he allowed no runs and struck out 14 while only allowing one walk. Overall Tanaka has been solid for the Yankees in 2016, but much like his teammates, he has been streaky. For what its worth, Tanaka faced the Royals back in May and allowed more earned runs in that game — six earned runs — than he has in any other game this season.

Edinson Volquez will take the mound for the Royals coming off his best start since the all-star break where he managed to last five innings and allowed no earned runs against Miami. Previously Volquez had gone nine straight games with allowing at least one earned run. Look for Volquez to induce a slew of groundballs (53 percent ground ball rate on the year) as he throws a hard sinker for a majority of his pitches.

Photo: John Rieger / USA Today Sports

Gary Sanchez has looked super human as of late. He recorded the second two-home run game of his very short career and also threw out two runners. Not to be outdone, Starlin Castro added two homers of his own, combining with Sanchez to provide the entirety of the Yankee offense. Based on those performances, one could surmize that a Yankee team victory would be the end result. However, against the fourth-ranked home run hitting team in the league this deduction would be incorrect.

Seattle continues to hit home runs at home. Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino and Nelson Cruz each had a four-bagger with the most important homer being Zunino’s in the bottom of the sixth. That gave the Mariners a 6-5 lead which would be all they needed. Cruz added a late homer to make the final 7-5 handing the Yankees their second loss in as many days.

The Sanchez and Castro show should have been a hit, but Yankee pitchers — including Michael Pineda, once again — could not keep the ball in the yard. Pineda gave up one homer and ultimately five earned runs. Hindsight is 20/20, but I keep going back to the decision to take out Pineda in the sixth with two runners on. It may not have been a terrible choice, but the move seemed a little rushed even for Girardi’s standards. The reason this point in the game was so important is because after Tommy Layne, the lefty specialist, came in to get Adam Lind out, the decision was made to bring in Anthony Swarzak. In that situation, I’m not sure many people were really concerned about Zunino going deep, but what is concerning is bringing in a pitcher that isn’t necessarily a big strikeout guy.

Whether you want to put this game on the decisions made by Girardi, on Pineda or on poor Anthony Swarzak that is up to you, but you most certainly can’t blame Sanchez. The guy is putting up video game type numbers and while we all are knowledgeable enough to know this type of offensive production cannot be sustained, it is a really good sign of things to come. It is important for a young player to see at least some success early so that they gain the confidence needed to know they belong at the major league level. Sanchez has now experienced that early success and we all go forward with eager anticipation as to what lies ahead for the young prospect.

The Play: Mike Zunino’s Go-Ahead Homer (+.491 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Gary Sanchez (3 for 4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI)
Mariners: Kyle Seager (2 for 3, 1 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI)

Notes

– Gary Sanchez’s eight home runs this season is the most by a Yankee within the first 19 games of their career.
– The Yankees are now 6 1/2 games back of the Blue Jays and Red Sox for first place in the AL East and 4 1/2 games back of the Orioles for the second wild card spot.

The Quote

“I was already going to possibly ask Clippard to give us nine outs. I thought it was unreasonable to ask him to give us ten outs.”- Girardi when asked if he thought about brining in Clippard instead of Swarzak.

The Highlight: Sanchez Hits His Second Home run

Up Next

The Yankees will take on the Mariners in game two of the three game series at 10:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field on Tuesday. CC Sabathia will get the nod as the starting pitcher. In his last start on Aug. 17 against the Blue Jays he recorded a season high 12 strikeouts but allowed seven earned runs in that game and took the loss. That Jekyll and Hyde type performance sums up Sabathia’s season. After a solid first half of the season Sabathia has really fizzled down the stretch and a once sub 3.00 DRA has grown to 3.91.

Taijuan Walker will start game two of the three game series for Seattle. This is based on comments by Mariners manager Scott Servais who said that his Tuesday starter is not currently with the team. Walker has been with the Triple-A club making rehab starts. It could also be the recently acquired Bryan Evans. Evans was picked up from free agency on Monday and immediately put on the Mariners roster. Prior to being assigned to the big league club Evans had spent eight years as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues with various organizations.

Photo: Joe Nicholson / USA Today Sports

The Yankees have 43 games left in the season and one could argue this was the game that the team could begin to make a push for the playoffs. After all, the teams the Yankees are chasing for both the division title and the wild card are inner division rivals Boston, Baltimore and Toronto. That’s not to say the Yankees have a good shot at making the playoffs, but they do have a shot… right? Especially if the youngsters continue to turn out like they did Monday.

Chad Green looked better than he ever has in a Yankee uniform. The 25-year-old right-hande had the best game of his short career going six innings, allowing two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. He put the Yankees in a position to win the game and his fellow green horns Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge applied just enough offense to claim the victory. Judge continued to shine as he drove in the only run of the game in the fourth inning with an opposite field double. Both Sanchez and Judge went 2-for-3 with a walk.

The pitching was the real story as Green, Adam Warren, Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances combined for the shutout. The Blue Jays have one of the most formidable offenses in the game, but tonight you would have never known. Green allowed two hits and the bullpen only allowed one. They also notched a total 13 strikeouts against the Jays.

It seemed to be a forgone conclusion the Yankees were throwing in the towel this season and rightly so. However, aging players are slowly but surely giving way to hungry prospects. There is something to be said for starting guys who just want to succeed. Of course, every player out there wants to succeed – not just the young guys – but do they all want to succeed with the same sense of urgency?

Guys like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Green – the starts of Monday’s game – are fighting to stay at the big league level and without knowing it are fighting to keep the Yankees in the hunt for October. It will be interesting to see how this series plays out and if Judge and company can continue their streak. I’m not trying to get ahead of myself, but the planner in me wants to ask the question. What if the Yankees keep winning?

The Play: Aaron Judge’s RBI Double (+.165 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Chad Green (6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 11 K)
Blue Jays: R.A. Dickey… I guess (5 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 1 ER)

Notes

– Chad Green’s eleven strikeouts in the game is a new career high for him.
– The Yankees are now 5 1/2 games back of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East and five games back of the Red Sox for the second wild card spot.

The Quote

“It’s exciting. You love playing with your friends and we got a good group of guys here so it will be exciting to see what happens.”- Aaron Judge talking about playing with teammates from Triple-A.

The Highlight: Green gets out of a jam

Up Next

The Yankees will take on the Blue Jays in game two of the three game series tomorrow night at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays are fighting for first place in the AL East and are currently a half game ahead of Baltimore and 1 1/2 games ahead of Boston. The Yankees – while unlikely – are still somewhat in the hunt for October as they are only 6 1/2 games back. Regardless, this is a big series for both clubs.

The Jays will roll out Marco Estrada who has greatly outperformed his FIP this season. He has a FIP of 3.89 with a cFIP of 110 and an ERA of 2.95. This discrepancy is confirmed when you look at his DRA of 3.90. What does this mean? It could mean that Estrada is prime for negative regression. That being said his K/9 has increased dramatically over his last 7 starts (8.50 season average, 10.00 last seven starts).

Pineda will start for the Yankees who has been less than stellar this season despite a fairly high K/9 ratio of 10.40. If recent history is any indicator, Pineda – at best – will give up a couple of runs and last around six innings. Pineda has been prone to giving up the long ball as of late and the Blue Jays have the second most homeruns in the league with 169.

Left Behind is a series of popular novels based on prophecies in the Bible that tells the story of the end times in which true believers are raptured leaving behind those who were not. The novels are supposed to give the readers a glimpse into a world that is void of all Christians. In a way that is what it felt like watching this game against the Mets. The stars of the Yankees 2016 season – Carlos Beltran, Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and why not, throw in Ivan Nova – were in a sense raptured by clubs who are more aligned to make the playoffs leaving behind a roster void of excitement (or one might think).

Players come and go which is the nature of the business, but this trade deadline feels slightly different. You get the sense it is the end of an era even though there are still many vetrans left on the roster. The four players mentioned above are the first to go, but Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez, and CC Sabathia aren’t far behind. That being said, those players are still on the team and they played a game tonight against the cross town rival New York Mets; the first of a four game subway series.

The game started off with a bang, as Brett Gardner tried to channel his inner Alcides Escobar and stretch a triple into an inside the park homerun. While his bid came up short the Yankees came up big late and won the game in extra innings 6-5. Sabathia started the game and once again had a sup-par outing going 5 2/3 inning allowing 5 earned runs on 8 hits. Two of those hits were home runs and the stinger came in the bottom of the sixth when Matt Reynolds hit three run homer giving the Mets a two run lead.

The Yankee bats picked up Sabathia and while they were out hit by the Mets 11 to 7 their hits were timely. Gardner and Ellsbury led the way each collecting 2 hits, 1 run and 1 RBI. McCann, Teixeira and Gregorius each had one hit with Gregorius’ game tying two out hit in the eighth being perhaps the most clutch.

Another clutch hit by Teixeira in the tenth and a misplayed Gamel bunt set up Castro’s go ahead RBI sac fly which would give the Yankees the lead and ultimately the win. Betances picked up his first save of the season – albeit it dramatic fashion – as he worked out of a jam that had the Mets with runners at second and third with one out in the bottom of the tenth.

Many Yankee fans will miss the players who now have new homes on contending teams. Who knows one day we might see them again. Until then we can enjoy the players left behind and long for the prospects who will one day fill their shoes.

The Play: Gregorius’ game tying single (+.302 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Brett Gardner (2 for 4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 R, 1 RBI)
Mets: Matt Reynolds (2 for 4, 1 HR, 1 R, 3 RBI)

Notes

– The Yankees played their first game minus slugger Carlos Beltran who was traded to the Rangers on Monday for three prospects headlined by flamethrower Dillon Tate. Tate was the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft.
– Ivan Nova was traded to the Pirates on Monday in return for two players to be named later.
– Brett Gardner collected career hit number 900 and 901 in the ballgame against the Mets. An arbitrary number, but I like round number milestones.
– Tyler Clippard made his 2016 Yankee debut after being acquired at the deadline yesterday.

The Quote

“The good thing is I got to watch all of those guys. I was blessed for that. I’ll try to take whatever I can from them.” – Dellin Betances after being asked how he feels stepping into the closer role after Chapman and Miller’s departure.

The Highlight: Betances gets his first save

Up Next

Game two of the four game subway series between the Yankees and Mets will begin on Tuesday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The probable pitcher for the Mets, Jacob deGrom, is having another deGrominator like season. However, his ERA is outperforming his FIP by .53 and his DRA is nearly a point higher than it has been the last two seasons. deGrom has started to really hit his stride as of late which is bad news for the Yankees.

The good news is the Yankees will roll out Masahiro Tanaka for the 22nd time this season. Tanaka was touched up in his last outing against the Houston Astros and overall in his last six outings has been less than consistent. In his last six starts he has allowed 6 runs, 0 runs, 7 runs, 1 run, 0 runs, and 4 runs respectively. So far this season it seems Tanaka has the ability to rebound after a bad outing which he must do if he wants to see success against the 13th rank offense in the league with regards to runs scored per game. Interestingly enough the Yankees offense is ranked 12th on that list.

Photo: Brad Penner / USA Today Sports

If this game seemed boring, you can thank Brian Cashman and Yankees assistant GM (aka head of quantitative analysis) Mike Fishman — the architects of the Yankee bullpen — for that. They could not have drawn it up any more perfect than how the game played out tonight.

Sure, it would have been nice to see the Yankee hitters produce a few more runs, but the pitching strategy was textbook. Nova went six innings allowing only one run on four hits which paved the way for No-Runs DMC. The run given up by Nova was a home run off the bat of Jonathan Schoop in the third inning which, at the time, tied the game at one. That game-tying homer matched the homer Alex Rodriguez hit an inning earlier.

The game was not tied for long. Brian McCann delivered with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the third which scored Brett Gardner and gave the Yankees a 2-1 lead, which they’d hold.

This marks the second game in a row that we saw the big three do their thing. It’s thrilling to watch, but the days of seeing these relievers closing out games – at least together on the same team – might be numbered. If it was one of the last few times we see Betances, Miller and Chapman in sequence, it was fun while it lasted. If Miller or Chapman some how make it through the trade deadline Yankee fans will be more excited than when Big Papi announced his retirement.

Each year teams are marked by certain abilities (such as hitting home runs) or certain players (like Roger Clemens). This year, the Yankees’ mark will certainly be its bullpen. Unfortunately for Yankee fans this might turn out to be a sad story as each time Mr. Miller or Mr. Chapman turn in stellar performances, the more front office eyes start watching. An awesome bullpen can mask many shortcomings, but in this case the Yankees shortcomings are just too much for even the best relief pitchers in the game to cover up which is why the bullpen could potentially be blown up. Today, however, it was enough and the Yankees won and that makes two in a row.

The Play: A-Rod’s 696th Home run (+.107 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Alex Rodriguez (1 for 3, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI)
Orioles: Johnathan Schoop (1 for 4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI)

Notes

– Aroldis Chapman touched 105 mph on two pitches in the ninth inning….enough said.
– Ivan Nova lasted six innings, marking the 11th start out of 13 this season he has done this.
– Alex Rodriguez hit his 696th career homerun. Four more and he will join the 700 club of which there are only three current members. Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds.
– That one simple run scored by the Yankees was unfortunate for Kevin Gausman who pitched a solid game, but did not get the run support needed to pick up a victory. He went 6 2/3 innings, allowed 6 hits and 2 runs.

The Quote

“Its been so long since I hit a home run I almost forgot about that” – Alex Rodriguez when asked how it felt to hit career home run No. 696.

The Highlight: Miller gets out of a jam

Up Next

Game two of the four game series between the Yankees and Orioles will begin on Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The probable pitcher for the Orioles is Vance Worley who is making a rare start this season. Worley started the year in the Orioles rotation, but was quickly sent to relief duties after just two starts. In fact, he has not started a game since April 15th. As a reliever Worley has been average to slightly below average. Look for a heavy dose of fastballs, sliders, and groundballs (his groundball percentage this season sits at 47 percent).

Nathan Eovaldi will start against the Orioles in game two. We last saw Eovaldi in the bullpen where he made three relief appearances allowing no runs on three hits in a total of 7 2/3 inning of work. Hopefully, this brief stint in the pen provided a boost of confidence for Eovalid who had been struggling as a starter in his last few outings. It would seem Girardi and company is giving Eovaldi another shot at sealing a spot in the rotation. If he fails it might be back to bullpen.

Photo: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports; Video: MLBAM

You are entering a time warp! No this isn’t the Rocky Horror picture show. It is the top of the ninth in what once was shaping up to be an average little game in the Bronx between the Yankees and Rangers. It had rained all game, but nothing that was cause for alarm. Just a drizzle. In the bottom of the eighth inning the drizzle turned to a steady rain and by Chapman’s fourth pitch to Choo in the top of the ninth the rain gods had opened the heavens.

Minutes turned to hours and hours turned to what felt like days. At one point I fell asleep and dreamt the game had been called giving the Yankees the win. I dream, but alas it was not the case. I woke to find myself staring at the same game that more than five hours ago graced my television set. In fact, it felt as if I had been locked in a space time continuum that Doc Brown himself would have found perplexing. In place of Chapman stood Kirby Yates ready to deliver the fifth pitch to Mr. Choo of the Rangers and there sat Marlins Man in his standard behind-home-plate seat – apparently making sure he got his money’s worth – making the game just that much more bizarre.

Yates struck out Choo on two pitches (you don’t get to say that often). He then hit Ian Desmond and Nomar Mazara setting the bases loaded. What happened next can only be explained by the twenty-four nyctophiliacs – including the cleaning crew – that was left at Yankee stadium. Beltre hits a single to left scoring two – one of which was charged to Aroldis Chapman. Two batters later Elvis Adrus hits a bloop single to right which scored two more runs essentially sealing the comeback.

Engage flux capacitor…..

Nova started the game and didn’t exactly have a great outing, but he got it to the bullpen with the lead albeit that lead came in the bottom of the fifth. He went five innings, allowed four runs on six hits with four strikeouts. He did allow three walks which has been a worrisome trend for Nova since he switched from reliever to starter. His counterpart on the Rangers – Chi Chi Gonzales – also pitched five innings and allowed one more run than Nova (5) with two strikeouts and two walks.

The Yankee hitters were led by Mark Teixeira who went three for five with a home run. However, the three hit club was not limited to Teixeira. Didi and Beltran also had three hits in this game.

After tonight’s losss the Yankees are one game below .500 and PECOTA projects they won’t be much better than this going forward. PECOTA predicts they will have a .511 winning percentage by the end of the season and finish fourth in the AL East.

The Play: Beltre’s 2 Run Single (+.407 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Mark Teixeira (3 for 5, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI)
Rangers: Shin-Soo Choo (2 for 5, 1 R, 2 RBI)

Notes

– Ivan Nova lasted five innings which is the eighth start out of sixteen starts this season he has done this.
– Mark Teixeira hit his second homerun in as many days and I’m sure the Yankees are hoping this mini power surge carries over into the second half of the season.

The Quote

“It rained really hard” – Everyone watching the game

The Highlight: Rain

Up Next

Game two of the four game series between the Yankees and Rangers will begin Tuesday, June 28th at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The probable pitcher for the Rangers is Cole Hamels who has been hot of late. He has a 1.84 ERA in June which includes five starts. His FIP in those five starts was an average of 3.97. At first glance you might think he is due for a bad outing. Take a closer look though and you can see that while the results have been there in his last few outings, Hamels’ FIP is actually above his career average of 3.52 so one could estimate he is actually due for positive regression.

CC Sabathia – who will start against the Rangers in game two – came back down to earth in his last start. Granted, he was facing the Colorado Rockies who have a formidable offense, but regardless he was due for a bad outing. It just seemed like one was going to come sooner or later. Unfortunately for Sabathia, he will once again be going against a tough offense. Colorado was ranked second in the league with regard to run scoring and Texas ranks sixth so Yankee fans may be in for a long night.

Photo: Brad Penner, a brave soul that worked until 2:30 a.m. at Yankee Stadium / USA Today Sports