It’s the last day of winter break for Yankees position players and emotions are running high. With Spring Training just around the corner, we check in with the Yankees as they say goodbye to friends and loved ones before making the big trip to Florida.

EXT. MIAMI PENTHOUSE – NIGHT

Giancarlo Stanton stands on his back veranda overlooking the water. His possessions are boxed up just inside the sliding glass doors of his three-story penthouse. He holds a phone to his ear.

GIANCARLO

Hi Derek… Yeah, big day tomorrow. Thanks again for trading me to a way better team, I really appreciate it…. I just wanted to call because I was wondering: do you think they’ll like me there? Ha, I know, it’s kind of silly, I’ve just heard New Yorkers can be a little mean. Like, AJ and I are looking for an apartment and the realtor was a 24-year-old who insulted my outfit, told me I couldn’t afford to live in Williamsburg, and then demanded that I read her screenplay. It’s all just a little overwhelming. …You think so? … So if I hit 60 home runs they’ll only hate me some of the time? Thanks man, I really appreciate your help. Good luck this year man, and tell Mattingly I’m praying for him.

INT. WORKOUT ROOM – DAY

Aaron Hicks approaches DAVE the personal trainer. Hicks keeps his coat on, nervously wringing a baseball cap in his hands.

DAVE

Aaron! You’re late buddy, get changed, it’s time to work out.

AARON

Hey Dave, I’m not going to be working out today.

DAVE

Wha- what do you mean? Is everything OK?

AARON

Dave, I’m leaving tomorrow. This winter has been fun, I’ve really loved working out here, and your training has been amazing… but I have to go away to Spring Training.

DAVE

But… I thought we had something special here. Me spotting you, telling you what workouts to do, didn’t that mean anything?

AARON

Of course it meant something! But we both knew this couldn’t go on forever. I’m a professional baseball player, you work at this gym, it was never going to last.

DAVE

I could come with you!

AARON

Dave, don’t do that. Don’t make this harder than it is.

DAVE

…You’re right. I’m sure there are a million trainers with the Yankees. I want you to go off to Spring Training and have all the experiences you’re supposed to have. I just… I don’t want you to forget about me.

AARON

I won’t Dave. I promise.

Aaron walks toward the door, pushes it open and pasues. He looks back at Dave, dons his cap, gives a small nod, and walks out into the bright February sunshine.

INT. ELLSBURY RESIDENCE – DAY

Jacoby fastens the locks on his hard-shell suitcase, puts on a light sweater to prepare for the weather outside of Arizona, and turns to his wife, KELSEY.

JACOBY

It’s been a hard winter of training and I haven’t read the news

in three months. What team am I off to play for this year, honey?

KELSEY

Back to the Yankees again my dear.

JACOBY

…the Yankees? You’re sure?

KELSEY

That’s right.

JACOBY

Are you positive Dale didn’t deliver last year’s paper? I’m quite certain they would have traded me by now.

KELSEY

I checked the date twice.

JACOBY

Yeesh. Well, at least that means there’s probably plenty of room in the outfield for me to get my stroke back.

KELSEY

…Uh… yeah. Yeah, you’ll do great my love.

INT. TRENDY CLOTHING STORE – DAY

Didi Gregorius peruses the aisles of a high-end fashion store. MARY, an employee at the store approaches.

MARY

Are you looking for anything in particular today?

DIDI

Yeah, I’m looking for an outfit that says “I just had the best year of my career and it wasn’t a fluke but also I’m not trying to be Derek Jeter” but at the same time says “Brett Gardner you could never look this good.” Do you have anything like that?

MARY

Hmmmm, I think I have a few ideas.

Montage: “Walking On Sunshine” plays as Didi tries on various outfits. He tries on one outfit with tight pants and an overly puffy shirt, Mary makes a face that says “not quite.” Didi tries on bell bottoms and a shirt from the 70s, Mary shakes her head “no way.”

Didi emerges from the dressing room wearing jeans and a normal-looking button up shirt. Mary nods her head as if to say “just right.” Didi gives a big thumbs up.

INT. FRAT HOUSE – MORNING

John Sterling wakes up on the floor. Beer cans, solo cups and pizza boxes are strewn amongst many bodies asleep on various surfaces. All of the passed out partiers are over the age of 70.

John wipes the sleep from his eyes and fumbles on the table looking for a beer can with liquid left in it. He finds one, takes a swig, and picks up his phone. The phone is dead.

JOHN

Damnit. Pssst, Ricky I gotta borrow your phone to call an Uber.

Ricky mumbles in his sleep.

JOHN

Come to think of it I need your passport too. I bought the plane tickets in your name cuz they won’t let me fly anymore.

John fishes around in the pockets of Ricky’s leather jacket, keeps the wallet and phone but tosses the keys onto Ricky’s sleeping body.

JOHN

I owe ya.

John rushes out of the house.

INT. JUDGE FAMILY DINING ROOM – NIGHT

Aaron sits at the table eating dinner with his parents, PATTY and WAYNE. The dining room is elegantly furnished, candles are lit upon the table. The family quietly eats their meals.

AARON

Thank you for having me over for this lovely meal. The chicken is delicious.

PATTY

Of course sweety. Oh, Doreen asked after you. I told her you were doing well and having fun playing baseball.

AARON

That’s very sweet of her to ask. I shall have to send her a postcard as soon as I arrive in Florida.

Beat. Everyone chews with their mouths closed.

WAYNE

The mailman delivered my package to the wrong house.

PATTY

That’s a shame! You were hoping to give those books to the children this week, right?

WAYNE

Yes, it is a nuisance, but not one to make a fuss over. Everyone makes mistakes.

More quiet eating.

PATTY

Are you all packed for your big trip?

AARON

Have been since this morning. And this time I didn’t forget my toothbrush!

The Judge family shares a hearty laugh as the camera pulls out, out the window of the dining room and up, as we see their quaint home from above with the sun setting on the California horizon.

The sound of laughter mixes with soft sound of a piano as we fade to black.

From the cusp of despair to clinching’s door,

Lifted by the boist’rous comforts of home,

Their playoffs defined by comebacks galore,

These Yanks seek one win inside Houston’s dome.

Verlander again proves a bugaboo,

As Astro bats wake from lengthy slumbers,

Judge’s solo shot proves six runs too few,

Leaving just one game to transcend all numbers.

The mighty offense that carried such weight,

Is flummoxed at last with conquest so close,

As McCullers spins two dozen curves straight,

These bombers fall short of that goal grandiose.

With a breakout star fueling sudden success,

Sadness is surpassed by the thrill of what’s next.

Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea / USA TODAY Sports

Or maybe he was smiling because somehow he had a feeling that none of the many miscues and misfortunes that befell the Yankees in this game would matter in the end.

Starlin Castro mishandling a Carlos Correa grounder in the 4th inning wouldn’t matter, and neither would this Brian McCann grounder – which mishandled Starlin Castro and plated a run:

Aaron Judge missing second base on his way back to first on a flyout, then being called safe on review and trying unsuccessfully to spoil the Astros’ appeal to second by stealing the base wouldn’t matter at all.

Josh Reddick becoming the first player in ALCS history to reach on catcher’s interference, subsequently forcing Girardi to remove Gray early wouldn’t matter in the slightest.

David Robertson walking the first batter he faced and then hanging an offspeed pitch in the zone to Yuli Gurriel for a bases-clearing double wouldn’t even matter.

None of these strange, unfortunate happenings would end up hurting the Yankees because their best players, the catalysts for their improbable success in 2017, stepped in to declare themselves officially back in action… though, they took a little while to get warmed up.

Lance McCullers kept the Yankees off balance for the first two times through the order, only striking out three but surrendering just one hit through six innings. Despite Sonny Gray’s best efforts (he recorded eight of his 15 outs on the ground to go along with four strikeouts), when Yankees fans looked at the scoreboard during the 7th-inning stretch, they saw the home team’s column displaying no runs, a single hit, and three errors. It was beginning to appear as though the Game 3 offensive explosion by the Yankees was going to be the outlier in a series of tough-to-swallow losses. But then a tall young fella stepped up to the plate in the bottom of the 7th, remembered he was playing in Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees have forgotten how to lose, and uncorked a monster home run to center.

Though it was of the solo variety, Judge’s homer appeared to jog A.J. Hinch’s memory to the fact that Lance McCullers has an ERA over 10 in his third time through the order. Chris Devenski was then nice enough to surrender a triple to Didi Gregorius and a sacrifice fly to Gary Sanchez, bringing the Yankees within two runs. Wanting to let the offense get back to their fun, Chad Green came back out in the 8th for his second inning of work and retired Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa in order, and then it was off to the races.

Todd Frazier lined a single to left field to lead off the bottom of the 8th. Chase Headley decided to do the same thing, except he stumbled around first base and instead of turning around to shamefully retreat to first, he chose to keep on chugging to second, somehow sliding in before a tag that he had no business beating (replay review brought to you by W.B. Mason). It was here, after this strange non-double that perhaps should not have happened, that it began to seem like the tides of strangeness were beginning to turn in the Yankees’ favor.

Following a Brett Gardner RBI groundout, that homer-hitting youngster from earlier ripped yet another blast, this time for a double off the wall in left, tying the game at four. Gregorius, again feeling inspired by Judge’s hit, grounded a single before begin scored for the second time in two innings by Gary Sanchez, who hit a go-ahead two-run double to right-center.

Gardner, Judge, Gregorius, Sanchez. The Yankees’ four most valuable hitters by bWARP all either plated a run or recorded a hit as part of the four-run 8th inning that catapulted the Yankees to a series tie. New York’s offense, which had gone so mysteriously quiet in the first two games of the ALCS, and which seemed once again dormant through the first six innings of Game 4, exploded for six runs on seven hits over two innings against Houston’s bullpen.

The Yankees may have lost a pair of frustratingly close games to begin the ALCS (presented by Camping World but with much respect to Doosan), but the bullpen that has been touted as the team’s biggest strength has held up the entire time. Now, after two breakout performances from New York’s offense, the spotlight shifts to Houston’s hitters, who plated their most runs of the series in Tuesday’s loss – two of which were unearned. With four more strong innings from the bullpen in Game 4 (oh yeah, that guy Chapman pitched a perfect 9th), the sample size continues to grow, proving more and more with each game that Joe Girardi is equipped with major weapons capable of shutting down opposing offenses.

With the Yankees’ best hitters delivering in the biggest spots for two straight games, the Bronx Bombers have proven that they are back to operating at full strength, putting the pressure on the Astros’ major players to step up and do the same. As Masahiro Tanaka prepares to take the mound on Wednesday in the Stadium where these Yankees have been unbeatable in the 2017 postseason (brought to you by whatever car that “Sweet Caroline” commercial is advertising), Sonny Gray can smile a little bigger, while still hoping that maybe next time his teammates will score some damn runs while he’s still pitching.

Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

A spirited comeback now in the rearview,

With forecasts bright since toppling the tops,

This oft-potent offense promptly falls through,

While the one called Altuve refuses to stop.

Tanaka’s one blemish proves ‘nough to sink him,

As Keuchel makes swift work of Yankee bats;

The path to glory not yet seeming slim,

Enter Verlander to shatter all that.

A celestial name with a knack otherworldly,

For snatching vict’ry from the crag of defeat,

These ‘stros render Chapman once more unsturdy,

As a Sanchez non-catch dom’nates the beat.

Two harsh days in Houston, now a sullen flight,

But Yanks despair not this familiar plight.

Photo Credit: Shanna Lockwood / USA TODAY Sports

With Wild Card highs now nigh antiquity

By virtue of Bauer’s ven’mous welcome,

The Erie’s ace makes minds think greedily,

His faults thus far having proved quite seldom.

One stroke from Hicks forestalls festivities,

Equipping Yank arms to finish the job,

But the night descends to extra activities,

Thanks to a slam and an unseen bat knob.

Tumult and dread surround the homecoming,

But Tanaka heeds not the worry or woe,

Stocked with splitters ducking and humming,

He sets up young Bird to play the hero.

With nails well-chewed and seat edges near gone,

Yankee fans live to cheer at least one more dawn.

Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso / USA TODAY Sports 

As Sam Miller covered earlier this year, Baseball Prospectus runs thousands of simulations of each baseball season in order to come up with preseason projections. Similarly, I ran my own special, top-secret simulations of Friday night’s game, and in each one, the Yankees blew the seemingly comfortable lead. Here are just a few of those alternate outcomes, which can perhaps give disappointed Yankee fans (and guilt-ridden Yankee managers) some comfort in knowing that not only was there nothing they could do to prevent losing but that the loss could have in fact been much worse.

The CC Timeline:

In this simulation, instead of pulling his starter after 77 pitches, Joe Girardi chooses to leave CC Sabathia in to face Austin Jackson. Jackson lines out, Yan Gomes doubles, then, with runners on second and third, Terry Francona makes the gutsy decision to pinch hit Lonnie Chisenhall against the lefty. With two strikes, Sabathia plunks Chisenhall. No question about it, the ball hits him square in the backside. Chisenhall takes his base, Girardi brings in Chad Green, Chad Green surrenders a grand slam to Francisco Lindor.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Review Timeline:

Here, Joe Girardi does exactly what fans were calling for him to do on Friday and asks the umpiring crew to review the Chisenhall hit-by-pitch. Replay officials find that the ball did, in fact, hit the bat rather than the hand and Chisenhall is called out on strikes, ending the threat in the bottom of the 6th inning.

With a five-run lead, Jordan Montgomery enters the game in the 7th and strikes out Jose Ramirez before issuing walks to Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana. Losing patience, Joe Girardi brings in David Robertson, who promptly gives up a three-run home run to Jay Bruce. Robertson retires the next two batters to end the inning. Chad Green enters in the 8th, allows a leadoff single to Erik Gonzalez before Francisco Lindor belts a game-tying two-run homer off the right-field foul pole.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Heartbreaker Timeline:

This simulation finds Chad Green cleanly striking out Lonnie Chisenhall to end the 6th. Jay Bruce’s homer off David Robertson only brings Cleveland within four runs before Aroldis Chapman enters the game in the 9th. Chapman retires Yan Gomes and Erik Gonzalez before Francisco Lindor comes up and hits a solo home run. He is then followed by Jason Kipnis, who hits a solo home run, followed by Jose Ramirez who hits a solo home run, followed by Michael Brantley, who hits – you guessed it – a double. But after review, the double is ruled a solo home run to tie the game.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Perfect Game Timeline:

In perhaps the least probable simulation, Corey Kluber and CC Sabathia each put together the most dominant outings of their respective careers, retiring batters early and often so that they both take perfect games into the 13th inning, where Francisco Lindor hits a walk-off homer off the right-field foul pole.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Cavs Timeline:

In a move that surprises everyone, Lebron James covers the length of Progressive Field for a chase-down block of a Gary Sanchez home run. Kyrie Irving then hits a last-second (metaphorically speaking) home run to pull off the improbable comeback.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Tom Brady Timeline:

The Yankees open up a 28-3 lead before Tom Brady begins methodically picking apart their defense.

Julian Edelman makes an amazing catch and the Yankees lose in 13 innings.

The Blah Timeline:

Here, Yankees fans are robbed even of the joy of the 8-3 lead, as Corey Kluber pitches seven innings of one-run ball, striking out 11. Sabathia turns in a solid performance but the Yankees roll over in a 4-1 loss. No controversy, but no fun.

Yankees lose in 9 innings.

The Other Review Timeline:

Girardi asks for a review of the Chisenhall hit-by-pitch. Replay officials do not find enough evidence to overturn the call. You know the rest.

Yankees lose in 13 innings.

Through this highly scientific exercise we can see that perhaps not all of the blame rests on Joe Girardi’s shoulders, and that if one thinks of this loss as just a loss (and acknowledges that at least Chapman didn’t give up four straight homers in the 9th), the pain does not cut quite so deep. Yes, the Yankees’ manager made a mistake, and that mistake had major repercussions for the team, but it is entirely possible that the top-seeded team in the American League would have clawed their way back into the game had events played out differently – especially if Tom Brady had taken the field as these simulations show he could have.

In the end, the Yankees are a talented young team who showed a lot of life on Friday night despite suffering a difficult defeat. And as the old saying goes, it is better to have led and lost, than never to have led at all. Or something like that.

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze / USA TODAY Sports

In his in-depth ALDS preview for Baseball Prospectus, Ben Diamond points out that Gardner, Judge, Sanchez, and Gregorius are responsible for 80 percent of the WARP in the Yankees’ projected lineup. Being top heavy can of course be true of a lot of successful teams, and the best four players in a lineup cannot be avoided entirely, but it could spell trouble for the Yankees based on just how much they are going to need to rely on their most powerful hitters. While New York’s offense and bullpen appeared dominant in the AL Wild Card Game, things are most likely going to look a little different against Cleveland’s historically great pitching staff. In this ALDS, the team that hit the most home runs in the majors will be squaring off against the team that allowed the fewest homers in baseball, and if the latter proves more effective in the postseason, then a strong bullpen won’t be enough to get the Yankees past Cleveland.

New York will not find much solace in looking back at their regular season meetings with Terry Francona’s squad either, as they lost five of the seven games and were held to six hits over 17 innings against Corey Kluber. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ best starter is currently not slated to take the mound until Game 4, which, if things go poorly, will merely be an imaginary game played out in the minds of heartbroken Yankees fans.

“But what about the bullpen?!” You ask, desperate for some hope amongst this talk of dread and doom. And to you, I say yes, the Yankees have a fantastic bullpen, one that will be crucial if they are to advance to the ALCS. However, Girardi’s heavy reliance on his relievers on Tuesday night is a tactic we saw Francona utilize to great effect last year, and is a weapon that will be wielded by both sides in this series. While the Yankees may have a higher number of top-notch relievers, Francona is not afraid to lean on elite pitchers like Andrew Miller and Cody Allen for a high volume of innings.

Against the pitchers slated to be in Cleveland’s ALDS bullpen, the Yankees were held to five runs over 17.1 innings this year. Three of those runs came on an Aaron Judge homer. While Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez have been elite players in 2017, the Yankees will be fielding the best position player this series, and as long as that is the case, they will have a chance to win, as plenty of scoreless innings can be erased by one swing from New York’s rookie right fielder. With 12 pitchers at his disposal – including some of the best relievers in baseball –  Joe Girardi will be making every possible move to limit Cleveland’s scoring, while it will be up to the young sluggers who got the Yankees this far to do some heavy lifting, as they try to eke out a few runs of their own.

That, or the Yankees are going to mash homer after homer off of Corey Kluber and CC Sabathia is going to toss a three-hit shutout. You never can tell with postseason baseball.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Losers: The Twins

For even more in-depth analysis, stay tuned to BP Bronx throughout this postseason run.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports

With a flicker of hope to swindle the East,

Tanaka makes fools of Toronto’s birds,

Reaching new heights as he dupes fifteen,

Ensuring the line at the top remains blurred.

Despite Judge’s blast to best one last record,

Wishes for a first-place finish are dashed,

Harsh news arrives upon yonder scoreboard:

Boston’s divisional checks have been cashed.

Sunday finds baseball adrift on all fronts,

Every game full of sound, fury, and rest,

A reprieve from the six-month slog just this once,

A day to prepare for the ultimate test.

In the eye of the storm, on this morn so serene,

Let us applaud the best rookie we’ve seen.

Photo Credit: Brad Penner/ USA TODAY Sports

On clinching’s cusp in hostile northern lands,

Tanaka yields to a barrage of blue,

‘Gainst the onslaught, ‘tis Judge alone who stands,

Eight runs too many for one man to outdo.

Gray and Bird bring forth an elusive berth,

And with it popp’d corks, a fete among friends,

But ‘neath sudsy smiles and apparent mirth,

Lies knowledge that one loss sires an ugly end.

In next day’s light, amidst the dried champagne,

Hangovers replace hunger in another rout,

Making Yankee fate now appear quite plain,

‘Tis time to prepare for the Wild Card bout.

A summer full of passion, measured in loss and wins,

Reduced to just one query: can they beat the Twins?

Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton / USA TODAY Sports