Baseball pundits always preach about lineups needing to have balance. Lefty-dominated lineups have a field day against right-handed pitchers but struggle against left-handed pitchers. The same might not be true about right-handed dominated lineups — something that I’ll explore in the future. Let’s choose, for the moment, to still accept the premise that the Yankees want to eschew from an unbalanced lineup.

With that in mind, there are two reasons why I’d go Moustakas over Frazier, and one that favors the latter over the former.

Career-wise, Moustakas has 448 PAs less than Frazier. Frazier also has a better triple-slash line than Moustakas: .245/.321/.459 (.279 TAv) vs. .251/.308/.425 (.258 TAv). With those numbers, adding Frazier to the lineup makes the Yankees even scarier than they already are. But the difference isn’t as substantial as it seems at first glance. Just last season, Frazier was less valuable than Moustakas — .222/.365/.423 (.268 TAv)* vs. .272/.314/.521 (.275 TAv). If we’re looking at career numbers, Frazier makes sense, but if we look at recent performance, I still feel more inclined towards signing Moustakas.

*That’s in 241 PA with the Yankees. With the White Sox, his line was .207/.322/.432 (.267 TAv).

Now, if we look at defense and payroll, Moustakas makes even more sense.

Though Frazier may have Moustakas beat in most offensive categories, defense is a whole other ball game. Moustakas’ glove work has produced a career 33.2 FRAA to Frazier’s -3.6. Just right there, Moustakas is a better career defender at third base than Frazier is. But, again, that’s over their careers. We must also look at their most recent performance to balance things out. In 2017, Frazier was better defensively than Moustakas (1.0 FRAA vs. -7.4).  2017 was a career-low for Moustakas, perhaps attributed to some lingering effect from his injury. In the long run (and over this offseason), Moustakas may be conditioning himself and recovering from any possible ailments and might come back better off in 2018. Looking at his career numbers, that’s a gamble I’d be more than willing to take.

Finally, there’s payroll. The Yankees are reportedly trying to get under the luxury tax in order to be big spenders in the 2018 free agency sweepstakes. With that in mind, Moustakas being the younger, least valuable player (as he is perceived) may mean a lower contract. Moustakas currently needs a place where he can prove he is one of the game’s best third basemen. As such, he might be willing to take a cheap, one-year contract to play in one of the country’s biggest media markets, showcasing himself to teams that may not be willing to spend big on Machado or Donaldson.

With that in mind, even though Frazier may take a one-year home team discount contract to play for the Yankees in 2017, Moustakas might be even cheaper (I wager somewhere between $5-8 million on a one year contract).

Should Moose opt to sign with the Yankees, he’d be in line for a small payroll but the chance to play on one of the biggest stages in the world and play for a team capable of reaching the World Series. Taking a short contract while aiming for a bigger payday in the future would put both Moustakas and the Yankees in a win-win situation for 2018 and beyond.

Photo credit: Dan Hamilton / USA TODAY Sports

But, believe it or not, Girardi was not ignorant when it came bullpen management as we are lead to believe.

In the 2016 Baseball Prospectus Annual, Rian Watt and Rob Arthur debuted weighted reliever management plus (wRM+*) “in order to better understand the degree to which big-league managers match their best relievers to the game’s biggest moments.” Watt and Arthur’s methodology ranked each reliever’s DRA and their average game leverage index (gmLI is taken from FanGraphs.com) by season. These were then correlated to check who were the most effective managers when it was time to make a call to the bullpen.

Ideally, we want a pitcher with a lower DRA facing higher leverage index moments. Managers with a DRA-gmLI correlation closer to -1 are those who are better at bullpen management. The results are then scaled to 100, similar to wRC+ and OPS+, 100 being average, and everything above 100 being above average, everything below being below average.

Over the past couple of weeks, I was looking over Arthur’s code and surprisingly found that former Yankees manager Joe Girardi was one of the best bullpen managers of this century. In the following table, I’ve taken the manager leading the league in wRM+ and then showed Girardi’s rank and his wRM+, with the difference between the leader and Girardi. The results were as follows:

Or, if you like a more visual approach, here’s the same table in graph form (red dots represent the league leader for the season):

Except for his first three seasons, when even then Girardi was better than league average, Girardi has been among the top four — and leading the league between 2013 and 2016 — in bullpen management, according to wRM+. He might have even led the league in 2017 but lost out to Bud Black by 0.2 points!

Yes, it helps that over the past five seasons Girardi has had the likes of Mariano Rivera, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, and Adam Warren. But knowing which pitcher to use depending on the game situation is even more crucial. Sure, you can send Mariano out every ninth inning, or always use Betances as the setup man. But that’s not always the case.

Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen managers become savvier as to when they should deploy a reliever – regardless of their label as a ‘setup-man’, ‘closer’, ‘late-innings eater’. Girardi, as he’s gained more experience managing, started to use his best relievers for the most important game situations. Yes, the decision may sometimes have blown up in his face – and the media is quick to paint him in an unfavorable light -, but most of the times, the call was the correct one.

Managing baseball is hard, and in a game where bullpen specialization is giving way to #bullpening and reliever deployment based on leverage index, Girardi was among the best.

Photo Credit: Andy Marlin / USA TODAY Sports

But here’s the interesting part. The Yankees appear to have taken a page out of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ book, filling two needs with one stone. With Stanton, manager Aaron Boone can now mix-and-match his outfield, giving his guys extra rest every couple of days by juggling their positions. New York’s outfield surplus could be their biggest advantages.

Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Brett Gardner give Boone a rotating trio, each capable of playing LF, RF, or DH. He can now give his players some rest without actually losing them for a game. Furthermore, having Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez, and Austin Romine, Boone can play the platoon advantage with both his outfielders and catchers.

As a thought experiment, let’s look at what the Yankees lineup could look like on a five-day basis:

Obviously, the lineup might not end up looking this way — in fact be sure that it will look nothing like this. Torres might not join the club out of Spring Training, and Greg Bird, Hicks, and Didi Gregorius will also need the occasional rest. Injuries will also be a factor that will need to be addressed. Given his injury history, Stanton could benefit the most by manning the DH on an almost regular basis instead of playing the outfield.

We also have to consider that, though we envision Judge or Stanton playing LF, playing either corner position — or any other position — isn’t an indicator of playing ability at another position. Left and right fielders have different responsibilities. Having Stanton and/or Judge learn the ropes of playing left field would be ideal — and it’s something we’re more likely to see during Spring Training — but we don’t know how this will play out once the season starts.

*Judge only played in 27 games in 2016.

The idea of having both Judge and Stanton put on a home run clinic on a daily basis is exciting. But seeing the Yankees mix-and-match their lineups like the Dodgers did during the postseason is even more exciting. If it worked for Los Angeles to great success, who says it couldn’t work for the Yankees?

What’s going down in Miami isn’t pretty. The hell Marlins fans are going through is horrible and I don’t wish it on any fan base, but having Stanton in the lineup is welcomed. The front office is investing in re-establishing a dynasty by any means necessary. That they are open to exploring every option capable of giving them an advantage, be it the fly-ball revolution or the era of the multi-position player is a step in the right direction.

Photo Credit: Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

This was to be the first step in a loving – and later a love/hate relationship when he was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies – relationship. I honestly don’t remember much of that game. I don’t recall Eric Hinske hitting that two-run homer in the seventh. But I do recall being in awe of Halladay’s masterful command and mechanics. The final box score says it all:

That was my first Halladay start: a complete game, three-hit shutout of the New York Yankees. Yes, I know this is a Yankees website but, for all the rivalry there has been between against other teams and players, we’ve always known when to show respect to the greats.

Aside from Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez, and Hideki Matsui, Doc struck out every batter in the Yankees lineup, collecting nine for the night. His only blemishes of the night were two singles, a double, a walk, and a hit by pitch, but all five base runners were left stranded, with only two of them reaching second base. At no point during the game did the Blue Jays have less than a 41 percent chance of winning. That’s how good they were when Doc took the mound.

But there are three at-bats – which unfortunately I could not find video replay of – that have stuck in my mind from that night.

The first two were the swinging strikeout to Tony Womack, followed by the Gary Sheffield line out to center. It was the bottom of the third and, after being held hitless the first two innings, Doc opened up the inning by hitting Martinez. Bernie Williams struck out the following at-bat. Derek Jeter came up after him and hit a 0-1 ground ball up the middle to put Halladay in his first jam of the night. With two runners on, and one out, here came the heart of the order for the Yankees.

Halladay started with a ball, and the next pitch was fouled off. With a 1-1 count, Halladay threw two consecutive balls to give Womack a hitter’s count. The next pitch was again fouled and things seemed to even out. You could tell that Doc was in a fighting to get out of the jam. Halladay stood in the stretch. The pitch came. Runners were going. Womack struck out swinging, and with two outs now in the inning, runners were at second and third. At this point, the Yankees had a 57 percent chance of winning. Unfortunately, Gary Sheffield would line out to Vernon Wells on the first pitch he saw, getting Halladay out of the jam and keeping the score at 0-0.

The third at-bat, and final strikeout, however, was the one that basically shut the door for the Yankees. Once again it was Sheffield standing at the plate. Matsui was in the on-deck circle and Rodriguez was waiting in the hole. The Yankees 3-4-5 guys were about to get their last chance at Doc. You could just feel the tension that the game could become a one-run game, could be tied or could be won by any of the three.

But Halladay was having none of that. He started Sheffield with a ball – his 103rd pitch of the night. He quickly came back to tie the pitch count on a called strike. Sheffield fouled the next pitch before he was caught looking on the final pitch of the at-bat. By that point, you could feel that no matter who followed, nobody was scoring on Doc.

Perfection was not achieved that night, but I met a pitcher who embodied it. Halladay became one of my favorite players and no matter who he faced, even if it was your favorite team, you wanted to root for him because rooting for him was rooting for perfection. Nobody drove himself as hard. Nobody could cause hate, anxiety, relief, and joy to the same person within a single game – whether you were for or against him.

Doc will be dearly missed. But we must be thankful for the time he dedicated to the game, to its fans, to his community. We were fortunate that he allowed us to borrow so much of his time. And we were fortunate to see him reach perfection, both on and off the field.

Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro / USA TODAY Sports

***

Watching Judge in 2016 was painful. His K% neared 50 and he slashed .179/.263/.345 over 27 games. Watching him, I convinced myself that he wasn’t terribly intimidating at the plate.

But once 2017 turned the corner, that obviously changed. Some of Judge’s 2016 hits showed his potential, but the beginning of 2017 was a best-case scenario for Yankees fans.

For a stat-friendly baseball fan, his year-long dominance of MLB.com’s Statcast leaderboards made me marvel. Judge’s excellence culminated at the Home Run Derby, where he ousted his opponents seemingly effortlessly.

His second-half strikeout uptick and frequent slumps were inevitable. While Judge tailed off a bit, it seems as if he’s the next Yankees superstar. I think he already is.

Charlie Clarke

***

I would just like to point out how insanely fortunate Yankee fans should feel to have Didi Gregorius. Replacing Derek Jeter in New York felt like such an impossible task, and failure seemed inevitable no matter who got the gig. They put that burden on a 25-year-old part-time player with a .243/.313/.366 career batting line who had never appeared on a BP Top 101 prospect list. Didi proceeded to put up back-to-back 2-WARP seasons in New York, and then broke out even further this year with 25 homers (most ever by a Yankee shortstop) and 4.3 WARP, making him one of the better shortstops in a league chock-full of elite talent at the position.

That should be enough for anyone, but Didi’s contributions go so far beyond just what he does on the field. From his silly YES commercials and Instagram art exhibits to his Toe-Night Show interviews and beloved, emoji-fueled game recap tweets, Didi has managed to succeed Jeter as more than just the guy who stands between second and third base. He personifies all of the fun and personality that emanates from this team. Judge might be the new face of the Yankees, but Didi is the heart.

Andrew Gargano

***

As far as pleasant surprises go, Aaron Hicks has to rank at or near the top for the 2017 season. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Starlin Castro all place highly on that list as well, but all were also projected to be significant contributors, or at least see significant playing time, going into the year. Hicks, on the other hand, was fresh off of a .217/.281/.336 season in his first go-round in pinstripes after being acquired for positional glut casualty John Ryan Murphy. With Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Judge already on the roster, and Clint Frazier and others coming up quickly behind, Hicks was an afterthought at best and potential 2017-18 offseason non-tender in many scenarios.

Instead, Hicks blossomed into arguably the second-best player on the roster. On a rate basis, only Judge was worth more wins per game than Hicks by both FanGraphs’ and Baseball-Reference’s measures. His Baseball Prospectus WARP was heavily deflated by a poor showing in FRAA, but both UZR and DRS loved his defense, as did the eye-test. Before the season started, I wrote an article about how there was some offensive upside because of his plate discipline numbers and poor batted ball luck, but I’m not sure I even believed what I was saying. And I definitely didn’t expect a .266/.372/.475 line with a 67/51 K/BB ratio. Extrapolated over 162 games, Hicks was worth over 6 fWAR, and over 7 bWAR.

The good news doesn’t stop there, however. This was just Hicks’ age-27 season, and he’s under team control for affordable rates for the next two years as well. Gardner and Ellsbury aren’t getting any younger, and Hicks projects to be a strong contributor in the outfield for the foreseeable future.

Austin Yamada

***

There were a lot of fun moments and storylines during the 2017 season but the April 28 game against Baltimore was my choice for favorite moment. It had everything: a horrible pitching performance by CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury’s first grand slam, and an improbable 14-11 comeback from a 9-1 and an 11-4 deficit.

I attended the game back in 2006 when the Texas Rangers opened up to a 9-0 lead on the Yankees and watched as the Yankees clawed their way back into the game ultimately winning on a Jorge Posada walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Akinori Otsuka.

This year’s version of that game found the Yankees down 9-1 heading into the bottom of the sixth inning. The Yankees would score three runs to make it a more respectable 9-4 but then Bryan Mitchell would surrender two more runs on a Jonathan Schoop single in the top of the seventh and the Orioles went up 11-4.

Most people watching the game figured it was over and rightly so. Usually, when a team is leading 11-4 heading into the bottom of the seventh inning it’s pretty much a done deal but not on that night. Former Yankee Vidal Nuno would load the bases for Jacoby Ellsbury and he sent his 2-1 offering into the right-field stands pulling the Yankees to within three runs.

After three clean half innings for Jonathan Holder, Darren O’Day, and Tyler Clippard, the Orioles brought in Brad Bach to close the game and well, he didn’t. He surrendered a walk to Chase Headley who advanced to third when the next batter, Matt Holliday, hit a single. Ellsbury hit into a force, scoring Headley to make it 11-9—Holliday was out at second. Starlin Castro hit the first pitch he saw from Brach into the left seats to tie the game. Brach would finish the inning without allowing any more runs and the game would head into extras.

After Aroldis Chapman pitched a scoreless top of the 10th, Jayson Aquino came in for the Orioles and walked both Aaron Hicks and Kyle Higashioka to start the inning. He retired Headley for the first out and Holliday stepped into the box. Aquino threw an 80 mph changeup that got too much of the plate and Holliday deposited it into the Yankees’ bullpen. The Yankees won the game 14-11 and it was the first glimpse of what was to come. It showed everyone, Yankees fans and the rest of baseball that the Yankees were a team that would keep fighting to the end.

Stacey Gotsulias – Editor-in-Chief

***

Like many, I wasn’t expecting the Yankees to reach the postseason and, if they did, I certainly didn’t peg them to reach Game 7 of the ALCS. Yet here we are. And, we almost weren’t here.  My favorite moment was how the Yankees started to put pressure on the Red Sox going into the final week of the season. Down in the AL East by three games with seven to play, you just had the feeling that the Yankees could overcome the odds and head for a meeting with the Houston Astros in the ALDS.

Those first three games were tense! They took the final game against the Royals – were Judge happened to break Mark McGwire’s rookie home run record – and the final two against the Tampa Bay Rays. The pressure was on the Red Sox to also sweep the Toronto Blue Jays in Fenway. And then it almost came to happen. Houston was set to visit Fenway for four more games while the Yankees closed things out against the same Blue Jays.

Boston lost the first two games and the Yankees took the first two to put the division lead at one. On Saturday, with Chris Sale on the mound in Fenway and looking very unlike him, the Red Sox managed to eek out one final victory to seal the division and force the Yankees to accept hosting the Wild Card game. The Yankees managed to sweep the Jays and, had it not been for the Red Sox offense, the story would have been different.

Many said that baseball was practically over going into the final week. But that division chase kept me on my seat til the end.

Martin Alonso

So, it was against the backdrop of Yankee Stadium II that the offense decided to erupt. Nevermind Didi Gregorius egregiously being picked off by Charlie Morton in the first. It would be the bottom of the lineup that would provide the initial catalyst. Gary Sanchez lined out for the first out of the second. Greg Bird would follow with a strikeout. That’s when things finally seemed to click for the Baby Bombers.

Following singles by Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks, Todd Frazier took a 95 mph four-seam fastball low in the zone, hitting it to the right field porch for a three-run homer that would awake the sleeping giants from the lull suffered at the hands of Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander.

But, despite this initial blast, Charlie Morton, the Astros’ starter, kept the game close. That is until two innings later when Bird managed to hit a high fly ball that eluded Cameron Maybin, resulting in a ground-rule double. From there the wheels came off for Morton and the Houston bullpen. Castro and Hicks grounded and flied out respectively. And again, with two strikes, Frazier managed to get on board via a walk. Chase Headley followed with a single (the first hit by a Yankee designated hitter this postseason!), scoring Bird, and Brett Gardner got hit by a pitch. With Will Harris in to relieve Morton, he threw a wild pitch, allowing Frazier to score.

And then came the reason why Aaron Judge will not see another four-seam fastball for the rest of this postseason:

A massive dinger hit to the left-center field bleachers, coming just in at Judge’s hand – the area where he has enjoyed the most success throughout the season. Big mistake by Harris — who on the bright side did not surrender a grand slam. Yet, with that homer, Judge snapped a hitless streak that has gone for far too long according to many Yankee fans. He — and the rest of the lineup — will need to avoid falling into another one if they are to avoid losing the series to the Astros.

I would be remiss if I didn’t compliment Sabathia on another magnificent outing. Sabathia has reinvented himself and is resembling the pitcher that the Yankees acquired way back in 2009, though with a caveat. He is now a finesse pitcher rather than a power pitcher, relying more on breaking balls and offspeed pitches to fool batters. Nevertheless, he can still throw the heat when required. Sabathia managed to throw 6.0 IP, allowing 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K and, more importantly, no runs allowed.

With tonight’s win, the Yankees are 4-0 at home this Postseason and are a game away from tying the Series. It will be up to Sonny Gray, taking the mound against Lance McCullers, to hold the Astros hitters in check while the Yankees light up the Bronx.

Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

As Andrew Gargano documented earlier during this series, the Yankees were on the verge of elimination because of a blunder by manager Joe Girardi. I won’t go into the details since they’ve been covered ad nauseam. Instead, I’ll focus on the performances of CC Sabathia and Corey Kluber, and how the lineups might end up looking.

But first a quick recap. Here we are, the final game of the division series; fresh from sweeping the Cleveland Indians in the Bronx. Game Three was won thanks to Greg Bird and a masterful performance from none other than Masahiro Tanaka, and Game Four was a lesson in what the Baby Bombers can do when the bats are hot — which is what they were doing for most of the regular season. Much like the Dodgers, who were covered by Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs, when the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, they are a scary bunch.

The bullpen has been spectacular — save for that Game Two blowout — throwing to the tune of a 3.52 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. Now that’s a small sample size but during the regular season, the bullpen has pitched to a 3.49 DRA, the lowest of any relief corps in the majors. Cleveland, however, ranks in the sixth spot with a 4.07 relief DRA. So should Girardi turn it over to another bullpen game, it’s more likely than not that any lead held by the Yankees will be hard to snatch away.

What about the lineup? During this series, Judge has gone missing, going 3-for-19 with a double. But, once again, small sample size alert, which may mean that he is due for a regression. The real catalysts this series have been Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and a revitalized Greg Bird. Hicks has been getting on base the most for the Yankees, while Sanchez and Bird have two home runs apiece, providing all the power the Yankees have needed so far. But if they are to advance to a rematch of the 2015 AL Wild Card, the whole lineup will need to contribute much like in Games Two and Four.

Shameless self-promotion alert! Craig Goldstein and I covered the ALDS preview over at the Baseball Prospectus main site and looking only at TAv for the Indians and Yankees, though the Indians have a more balanced lineup, the Yankees are more than capable of stringing hits together before putting it all away with a home run. So that will be an interesting factor if…

CC Sabathia delivers another masterful performance like in Game Two. Last Friday, Sabathia was firing on all cylinders and, through 5 1/3 innings, was vintage, throwing 77 pitches with five strikeouts and three walks. Yes, he was unfortunately charged with four runs (two earned), but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t good. He managed to cool down the Cleveland bats while the Yankees did short work of none other than Kluber — who was done for the night after 2 2/3 innings of work.

If Sabathia manages to draw from the well one more time, then it will be up to the Yankee bats to provide enough of a cushion for the bullpen to hang on to. The key will be Girardi playing the matchups well-enough to silence the likes of Kipnis, Ramirez, Bruce, and Santana. If everything turns out right, then we’ll have a longer look at what the 2015 AL Wild Card match should have been.

Photo Credit: David Richard / USA TODAY Sports

But given the Yankees current run-differential pointing to them being the second-best team in baseball, is there a chance for them to overtake and skip the Wild Card game? Well, according to a model I ran this morning: yes, there is.

Based on an expected goals model I took from Soccer — yes, I know baseball has its own expected runs model but I wanted to build my own — I created my own, very primitive model in Excel (I’m still not comfortable doing this in R or Python). I took runs scored and runs allowed (RS and RA, respectively) at home and away, number of games played home and away, and replicated the data for the Yankees, Twins, Reds, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Royals, and Astros (since these are the teams involved in both Boston and New York’s final 12 games.)

I calculated expected runs scored and expected runs allowed and calculated the probability of the likeliest score and outcome using a Poisson distribution. What I got was the following table:

According to this, the Yankees have a better than 50 percent chance of winning each game — the chance of actually winning their final 12 games is 0.207 percent. Similarly, the Red Sox are shown to be heavy favorites in their remaining series, except their final homestand against the Astros, were they’re expected to be swept. The probability of this actually happening is 0.301 percent.

Both outcomes are highly unlikely. In fact, the probability of both of these events happening is about 0.001 percent! That’s 1 in 160,144! So there’s a really small chance that the season ends with the Yankees overtaking the Red Sox with a one-game lead.

But baseball is mired with randomness and models are not magic crystal balls. We do this because we love to check the data and come up with several possible images of what may happen.

And who knows? Perhaps the Yankees get into a hot streak and win their next four games while the Red Sox slip and lose the next four. Everything and anything is possible.

Photo Credit: Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Over his career, Jeter’s peak ISO was .204, which he reached in 1999 after batting .349/.438/.552 with 19 home runs in 739 plate appearances. He also had a .334 TAv and 6.5 WARP- if you want a number that sums up his entire contribution.

Gregorius, however, has yet to reach an ISO above .190 (his current mark). Furthermore, he has yet to live up to Jeter’s ’99 hitter’s line – hitting .295/.328/.485 this season. Again, if we want to take TAv and WARP, he’s been hitting .285 and 3.6, respectively, in 498 PAs.

Then again, Gregorius has exceeded his 90th-percentile PECOTA projection, and over his entire Yankee career, has posted a 7.9 WARP – which surpasses Jeter’s numbers over the final seven years of his career. But, the caveat is that this is an arbitrary cutpoint that solely focuses on the declining years of Jeter’s career – past his age-33 season. Gregorius, however, has time on his side and could very well improve on his career season.

The question now would be: is Didi better than Jeter?

WARP

Starting with WARP, Jeter was worth 59.1 over his entire career. Gregorius, so far, has been worth 9.6 (16 percent of Jeter’s production). Even if we compare Jeter’s first seven seasons in order to produce a better comparison, Jeter still surpasses Didi with a 28.4 WARP.

What if we compare the transition period then? We take Jeter’s last years and plug in Gregorius seasons spent with the Yankees. Then we’re back at square one, Jeter produces 5.4 WARP while Gregorius has produced 7.9 WARP. While Jeter was better at the plate, his defense was so attrocious that it cost him points.

Gregorius, to his credit, is not a terrible player. He has an average bat and his defense is a vast improvement over Jeter’s. Nevertheless, he’d need to average 2.7 WARP over his next seven years to reach Jeter’s mark over his first seven years – something that seems unfathomable.

Advantage: Jeter.

TAv

How about the bat? Over his career, Jeter had a .285 TAv – nine percent above the league average of .260 (which TAv is scaled to on a year-to-year basis). Didi is batting that this season, but over his career, he’s been exactly average! But, here’s the point in favor of Didi: over his career, Gregorius’ TAv has steadily increased. He’s gone from .228 in his rookie season to .285 so far in 2017. That’s a 25 percent increase that points to Gregorius trying to improve on the part of the game he finds more wanting.

But why such a big difference career-wise? If we look at Jeter’s hit types, by his age-26 season he had almost double the number of doubles and home runs than Didi currently has. Furthermore, though fairly arbitrary, Jeter had already reached 1,000 hits by the end of his age-26 season. If we are to take 2017 plus PECOTA’s projections post-2017, Didi would reach that mark by his age-29 season. Without the bat, Jeter’s production has had to been split across other positions – something that won’t bother the Yankees given how the Baby Bombers have fulfilled their median projections.

Advantage: Jeter

FRAA

Finally, we get to the point of contention for Jeter. Those familiar with advanced defensive metrics know that Jeter was a below average defender. Nothing new here. So the question then becomes: how much better is Gregorius? Well between 2009 and 2014, Jeter produced a cumulative -75,5 FRAA, topping out at -23.8 in his final season (career-wise, Jeter has cost the Yankees approximately 30 wins).

Between 2012 and 2017, Gregorius has produced -11.5 FRAA. Overall, that’s an improvement of 64.0 FRAA, Gregorius is then, with his glove, costing 6 wins less than Jeter did; though he is still costing them some.

If we restrict Gregorius production to his Yankee years, then he produces -3.7 FRAA. Compared to the -303.6 FRAA that Jeter had as the Yankees everyday shortstop, this is a much needed defensive improvement. Jeter was always touted as an unimpeachable defender by sports pundits. We now know that his bat production was mostly negated by his glove. Gregorius, however, merely cancels out.

Despite this, Gregorius defensive chops allow him to edge out Jeter.

Advantage: Gregorius

***

Sure, Gregorius will probably never live up to the hype that Jeter had. Jeter was the face of baseball for two decades and will surely be enshrined in Yankees lore with the likes of Mantle, Berra, and Ruth. Gregorius, on the other hand, will probably end up as a footnote on many a Yankees team until his contract comes up. And though he’ll never hit like the Captain, he is a defensive improvement over one of the most charismatic Yankees of our day.

Photo Credit: Jerome Miron / USA TODAY Sports

Not too bad. According to the Pythagorean record, the Yankees should sit alone in first – though barely. In fact, let’s look at the top 5 teams in both leagues.

This time, the Yankees are fifth in the league and third in the AL!

The Yankees stumbled coming out of the gate this season but after an April 9th win against the Orioles, things started to get on track. The Yankees lineup – while one of the youngest in its history – has proven to be monstrous and capable of supporting a lineup that has looked both spectacular at its best and really shaky at its worst.

Yet, as all things that deal with randomness, things haven’t fallen completely on the Yankees side. Had some games gone their way – like Friday night’s game in Boston – New York could very well be battling for home field advantage throughout the AL playoff race. Given their Pythagorean record, they should be 73-50, half a game ahead of Boston – who would be sitting at 73-51.

Instead, the Baby Bombers are facing a 4.5 deficit in the AL East race, albeit they have a slightly comfortable 3.5 game lead in the Wild Card race.

Cashman hasn’t slept through this season either. He’s added many pieces to the team like Todd Frazier and Tommy Kahnle without giving up any of the top prospects in the farm system. Likewise, the team has also seen its production compensate for Aaron Judge’s continuous slump. If Judge manages to snap out of it and contribute like he did during the first half, then this becomes a very scary lineup – no matter who you are.

The return of Masahiro Tanaka – along with CC Sabathia’s start last weekend – will also help bolster the rotation which has held up nicely. And with September a week away, many of the more notable prospects will become available to help make the final push to either overtake Boston or secure the first wild card. If all things go the Yankees way, then New York fans will be sure to experience a deep playoff run.

Currently, given their actual record, the Yankees are set to finish with an 87-75 record, six games behind Boston. But given their Pythagorean, they are actually playing like a team set to finish at 97-65, two games ahead of Boston. It all depends on which team will show up in the final month of the season.

Stats through 8/21.

Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara / USA TODAY Sports