The Rotation

According to Pinstriped Prospects, Thunder manager Bobby Mitchell announced that the rotation will be:

1. Brady Lail, RHP
2. Cale Coshow, RHP
3. Ronald Herrera, RHP
4. Dietrich Enns, LHP
5. Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Lail spent the majority of 2015 pitching for the Thunder (and pitching well, with a 2.45 ERA), making 19 starts and tossing 106 1/3 IP. He earned a late season promotion to Triple-A, where he was rocked to the tune of a 4.62 ERA, allowing 46 hits and 4 home runs. He walked more (17) than he struck out (13) in just 37 IP. Lail was ranked as the Yankees’ ninth-best prospect by the BP Prospect Staff, and will likely be the first in line for a promotion should the need arise at Triple-A.

Coshow and Herrera both finished up 2015 in Double-A (although Herrera did so in the Padres organization — he was acquired in a deal for Jose Pirela), and that is essentially where their similarities end. Coshow is a 6’5″ hoss that throws in the upper-90s and has been most successful out of the bullpen, whereas Herrera checks in at 5’10”, sits in the low-90s, and has primarily been a starter. I could see Coshow as a bullpen shuttle piece at some point this season, particularly if he struggles in his first real shot as a full-time starter.

Enns missed most of 2014 and half of 2015 due to Tommy John Surgery, though he seemingly did not miss a step, pitching to a 0.61 ERA with 8.4 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP. Drafted as a reliever, Enns has the look of a classic command/control lefty, so it isn’t surprising that the Yankees would give him a shot to start. Montgomery has a similar profile, as a back-of-the rotation type (I would argue he has one of the highest floors in the system).

The Bullpen

By process of elimination, the Thunder bullpen will include Giovanny Gallegos, Mark Montgomery, Conor Mullee, Evan Rutckyj, Alex Smith, Caleb Smith, Matt Tracy and Matt Wotherspoon. Tracy made his big league debut in 2015, tossing two innings against the Red Sox last April, Rutckyj made some headlines for kind of bashing the Yankees before being returned to the team, Montgomery has seemingly been around forever, and that’s where the noteworthy information about this group ends.

Though, to be fair, I do think that Montgomery and Rutckyj have some semblance of upside as middle relievers.

The Catchers

Kyle Higashioka has been in the Yankees system since 2008 (drafted in the 7th round out of high school), and has all of 69 PA above High-A. He isn’t completely clueless at the plate, but he is essentially a glove-first catcher nevertheless. Once upon a time, Sebastian Valle was an intriguing prospect, but those days are long gone. Both Higashioka and Valle are organizational filler at this point, though both could eventually see time in a back-up role at the highest level (stranger things have happened).

The Infield

This group is largely dominated by disappointment, with Dante Bichette, Cito Culver, and (probably) Tyler Austin seeing a great deal of playing time. We have two former top picks that have failed to do much of anything, and a former top-100 type that has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness. All three have a great deal to prove if they hope to be in the organization’s long-term plans. Interestingly enough, I could see Culver being transitioned to the mound at some point, as his plus-plus arm has never been in question (and his solid-average to above-average defense does not make up for his complete inability to hit).

Tyler Wade is a player to watch, however. Ranked as the team’s eighth-best prospect by MLB.com, he has a smart, high-contact approach at the plate, the speed to be an asset on the basepaths, and the tools to be a solid defender at short. Wade lacks power, but he has the look of an average regular at either second or short nonetheless.

The Outfield

Dustin Fowler is the jewel of the roster, ranking 5th and 6th in the system by BP and MLB.com, respectively. He reminds me quite a bit of Brett Gardner, as an above-average defender with a strong approach from the left side and a swing that portends average-ish power in the future. Fowler has the tools to be an average regular in center, and a reasonable floor as a solid fourth outfielder — either of which is a fine outcome for an 18th round draft pick.

Lane Adams, Juan Silva, and the recently returned Jake Cave round out the outfield, and none look like much more than a back-up at this stage in their careers. This could be a big year for Cave, though, who was last off-season’s Fowler before backsliding in 2015.

Lead photo: Kim Klement/Getty Images

We have a full-season of Gregorius in pinstripes to ruminate on, so there’s no real need to revisit his history. Ackley, however, had all of 57 PA with the team last season and, exciting though they may be, is still a relative newcomer. And Hicks and Castro were the key acquisitions of the off-season (despite the awesomeness of Aroldis Chapman – though, there is more on him to come). An interesting pattern is revealed when you look at Ackley, Hicks, and Castro; and it becomes even more impressive when you include Chapman. Let’s take a quick look back at the 2010 pre-season prospect rankings, shall we?

This quartet represented elite prospect talent half a dozen years ago. To be fair, this is not wholly shocking; in fact, this was discussed multiple times when the Yankees acquired each player. What has been a bit lost in the shuffle, however, is just how good folk thought these players could be.

The Reds moved Chapman to the bullpen in his first professional season, but a couple of months earlier Kevin Goldstein (currently of the Astros, formerly with BP) felt that “if he throws more strikes and develops even just a usable changeup, he’s an ace in the making.” Most every source from the time believed that Chapman’s ability to hold his velocity deep into games would allow him to start long-term, and the term ‘ace’ was thrown around with gusto. There was skepticism, to be sure – but the talent was truly special. As of this writing, Chapman has started a grand total of 19 games; we never really did get a chance to see him as a starter … though it is tough to imagine him being anything other than a light’s out closer at this point.

Finding a defensive home for Ackley was always based on a bit of faith, but few questioned his offensive prowess. Sticking with Goldstein, “scouts are universal in seeing Ackley as a player who could compete for both batting and on-base percentage titles … he’s a lean, wiry, toolsy athlete with plus-plus speed, and he earns high praise for his makeup and baseball intelligence.” The Baseball America staff went a bit further, stating that he had “the best pure swing and pure bat in the ’09 draft class, and maybe the best this decade.” Were it not for the existence of Stephen Strasburg, Ackley may well have been the consensus top prospect in that draft.

The resume of Hicks wasn’t quite so lofty as Ackley’s, but some were throwing around comparisons to Curtis Granderson at the time (this, on the heels of Granderson batting .249/.327/.453 with 30 HR and 20 SB). Our old friend Mr. Goldstein wrote that “Hicks has the potential to be a five-tool monster. His athletic build shows plenty of raw power, he’s a plus runner who covers a ton of ground in center field, and he features one of the minor leagues’ best arms … he has a keen understanding of the strike zone and knows how to get himself into hitter’s counts.” Goldstein went on to say that he had 30/30 potential at his absolute best. Keith Law believed that “Hicks’ ceiling is one of the highest of any player in the low minors.”

And, finally, there’s Mr. Castro. Within a few months of these rankings being release, Castro was the starting shortstop for the Cubs; he’d finish his rookie season batting .300/.347/.408 in 506 PA. That batting average was right in-line with Goldstein’s scouting report, wherein he said “Castro certainly can hit. He has an instinctive knack for contact and rockets balls from line to line with regularity, projecting as a .300 hitter in the majors.” His hit tool has never really been in question; it’s always been a matter of approach. Interestingly, Goldstein also praised his defensive fundamentals, as well as his “smooth actions, soft hands, a quick transfer, and a plus arm.”

So what went wrong? If I knew the answer to that, I would probably be following in the footsteps of folk like Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks.

I’m limited to informed guesswork, at best. Chapman struggled a bit as a starter in 2010, particularly with his control (4.11 ERA, 5.5 BB/9), and the Reds brought him up as a reliever to manage his innings … and never saw a reason to look back. Ackley was Marinered (the team’s track record with hitting prospects is dodgy at best, and Safeco Field doesn’t help). Hicks was always a raw talent, and he was rushed to the Majors (he initially skipped over Triple-A entirely). And Castro was too reliant on his natural hitting skills, and could not adjust to the adjustments made by pitchers; he never quite figured out a proper approach at the plate.

Is this a rosy way to look at this players? Probably. And yet that optimism is exactly why the Yankees took these chances (to be fair, including Chapman at this juncture is a bit unfair – he’s always been a stud reliever). Ackley, Hicks, and Castro are all still at least two years shy of their 30th birthday, and all have shown flashes at the big league level.

It is naive to expect greatness – but there’s a foundation here for something more than competence. And that alone is a reason for optimism.

Lead photo: Jerome Miron / USA TODAY Sports

It seems passé to pick on Refsnyder’s shortcomings, as that is the same song and dance that we have heard for the past sixteen months or so. Drafted as an outfielder, Refsnyder was moved to the keystone in 2013 – and that’s the only position that he played until this Spring. Reviews on his defense once he reached the show were mixed (at best), and as recently as this off-season, folks were certain that he was limited to second base due to his mechanical actions and subpar arm strength. Refsnyder seemed to have improved enough to be at least competent defensively, but his bat would have to carry his glove were he to garner legitimate playing time with the Yankees.

For quite some time, the team was adamant that Refsnyder was a second baseman, and only a second baseman; whether this was a ploy to inflate his trade value or a genuine organizational belief remains to be seen. This spring, however, opportunity knocked at the hot corner as the team suggested that Starlin Castro would somehow start at second (a position that he is still learning), while also backing up shortstop and third base (another position that he would have to learn). Thankfully, the Yankees punted on this notion fairly quickly. And so here we are.

While it is a bit too early to discern whether Refsnyder can be an adequate defender at the hot corner, the early reports are fairly optimistic. And, given the other options, he would only need to be something more than embarrassing in order to be the clear-cut best choice for the role. ZiPS (.248/.318/.395, 95 wRC+), Steamer (.268/.334/.408, 104 wRC+), and PECOTA (.262/.340/.419, 107 wRC+) all see him as a league-average-ish hitter right now, and there’s more than a bit of upside, to boot.

All that being said, this transition still feels a bit strange when taken at face value. We all know that third base is a position that demands quick reactions and a strong arm, and we all know (or thought) that that was precisely what Refsnyder lacked. And the precedent for a player shifting from second to third is rather limited, particularly when you are looking for players that aren’t limited to bench roles. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t a few comparisons to be made, though.

Brett Lawrie of the White Sox split time between catcher and third base in high school, but was moved to second base when he made his professional debut due to his inconsistent throwing mechanics. His arm strength was not detrimental, though it was thought to be average at best – but it was inaccurate, and he had a tendency to sail his throws. He exclusively played second base for his first two professional seasons, where the reviews were mostly uninspiring. Lawrie moved back to third base in 2011, and that has been his home since — and he has been at least average there for most of his MLB career.

Former Yankee Martin Prado began his career as a second baseman, spending the vast majority of his time there for the first three years of his professional career, before shifting into the utility role that he is known for today in 2006. The reason that Prado was moved, however, seems to be that his skill set actually fit third base a bit better than second — his arm was always a tick above-average, and his range was more in the fringe average range.

The recently retired Chone Figgins breaks the mold a bit, as he started out as a shortstop; however, he moved to second base due to inconsistency and a lack of arm strength. He didn’t play a single game at third base until his fifth professional season, and it wasn’t until 2004 (his eighth season) that he played more than a few innings there. And third base ended up being his best position, where he became an excellent defender.

The unofficially retired Placido Polanco was drafted as a shortstop, but moved to second base in short order due to a fringe-y and erratic arm. He split his first five professional seasons between second and short (about two-thirds of his innings came at the keystone), and didn’t see real time at the hot corner until his seventh season. Once in the Majors, he mostly split his time between second and third, performing quite well at both throughout his career.

It is interesting to see Prado and Polanco pop up here, as I believe that Refsnyder has a similar profile. He walks and strikes out more than both (albeit without much big-league exposure), but all three fit the ‘pesky hitter’ mold, working deep counts and driving the ball to all fields. And all three have a bit more pop than one might suspect (Polanco averaged 9 HR per 162 for his career, and Prado sits at 13). I could certainly see Refsnyder batting around .280 and flirting with double-digit home runs with enough playing time.

While it is difficult to compare Refsnyder to any of these individuals, if only due to a lack of a real sample size for his part, I do feel that this is encouraging. All of these individuals had question marks about their gloves, and all ended up as at least passable defenders. Hindsight may make us wonder why there was ever such a worry — particularly with Figgins and Polanco — but that does not change the fact that these players overcame very real issues in becoming quality major leaguers. And it does not seem so far-fetched that Refsnyder could do the same.