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		<title>How Can the Yankees Fill the Void at the Hot Corner in 2018?</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/how-can-the-yankees-fill-the-void-at-the-hot-corner-in-2018/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 20:30:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cen Koci]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gleyeber Torres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Andujar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following the acquisition of reigning National League MVP, Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees looked to shed payroll elsewhere on the roster in hopes of staying under MLB’s 2018 luxury-tax threshold of $197 million. Third baseman Chase Headley was subsequently traded to the San Diego Padres, freeing up $13 million. While Headley could not replicate his Gold [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following the acquisition of reigning National League MVP, Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees looked to shed payroll elsewhere on the roster in hopes of staying under MLB’s 2018 luxury-tax threshold of $197 million. Third baseman Chase Headley was subsequently traded to the San Diego Padres, freeing up $13 million. While Headley could not replicate his Gold Glove and Silver Slugger 2013 season as a member of the Yankees, he did start nearly 150 games per year from 2015-2017 and provided an offensive spark versus the Houston Astros in the ALCS including two hits against Astros ace, Dallas Keuchel, in a crucial Game Five win.</p>
<p>Fraught with minor league talent and newfound salary cap space, General Manager Brian Cashman can be creative in identifying Headley’s successor. While the Bombers <em>have</em> reportedly remained engaged in trade talks with the Baltimore Orioles regarding superstar, Manny Machado, the following are some potential options to fill the void left at third base if a trade for Machado does not materialize.</p>
<h3>Trade Acquisitions</h3>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Maikel Franco</span></b></span> of the Philadelphia Phillies appeared on the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects list for consecutive seasons before his brief debut in 2014. Franco made an immediate impact when given his first significant opportunity in 2015, slugging 15 home runs in just 80 games, to go along with a .280 batting average. However, as the Phillies’ everyday third baseman in 2016 and 2017, Franco regressed at the plate. The 25-year-old’s OPS dropped by 150 points from 2015 to 2017 as his line drive rate fell drastically.</p>
<p>While Franco’s lack of progress at the plate has been disappointing, there are several factors that indicate a bounce-back season may be imminent. Consider first that Franco maintained a terrible .230 BABIP in 2017, this is a number that is sure to increase for a player that hits the ball as hard as he does (176 balls in play with exit velocity greater than 95 MPH). Franco also went on a tear at the plate to finish the 2017 season, driving in 14 runs on six homers during the last month. Both signs allude to the potential for 2018 to be the season that Franco finally realizes his star potential.</p>
<p>While reports have noted that the Phillies are reluctant to trade Franco with his value at its lowest point (via Jerry Crasnick, ESPN), the Yankees would be a team with the minor league talent to persuade the Phillies to move the right-handed slugger. Franco is not eligible to become a free agent until 2022 and made just $560,000 last season, thus the Yankees have the opportunity to buy-low on this controllable, former top prospect with huge power.</p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Josh Harrison</span></b></span> the primary second baseman of the Pittsburgh Pirates, is rumored to be amongst the Yankees’ trade targets this offseason. The two-time All-Star had the best season of his career in 2014 when he finished ninth in MVP voting and amassed a 5.1 WARP, good for 12<sup>th</sup> in the league. Harrison consistently provides a spark on offense, defense, and on the basepaths for his team.</p>
<p>Much of Harrison’s value lies in his versatility; he has played over 250 games at both second and third base as well as more than 100 games in the outfield in his career. Thus, Harrison would remain a valuable player even if the Yankees were to call up prospects during the season, such as Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, to take over second or third base. Adding Harrison will allow the Yankees to promote the players that management feels are ready for the big leagues as opposed to simply promoting players to fill holes.</p>
<p>At thirty years old, Harrison has one more year left on his contract at $10.25 million, with club options for 2019 and 2020. The Pirates have expressed a willingness to entertain the idea of trading some of their stars, and a trade for Harrison would provide the Yankees with additional flexibility in subsequent roster moves.</p>
<h3>Free Agents</h3>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Todd Frazier</span></b></span> was acquired from the White Sox in July of 2017 to provide corner infield depth after first baseman Greg Bird underwent midseason foot surgery. Frazier was struggling to replicate his 2016 production with the White Sox, batting just .207 before being dealt to the Bombers. As a Yankee, the Toms River New Jersey native improved his OBP by nearly 40 points with modest increases in his batting average and walk rate. Likely motivated by the short porch in right field, Frazier, also improved his ability to drive the away pitch, something that he had struggled with early in the year.</p>
<p><a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2018/01/cenkocifrazier.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9800" src="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2018/01/cenkocifrazier.jpeg" alt="cenkocifrazier" width="922" height="481" /></a></p>
<p>The main deterrent of a reunion with Frazier, who will be 32 years old when the season begins, is his desire to sign a multi-year deal. The Toddfather will likely sign a deal similar to the three-year deal worth $37.5 million that another 32-year-old infielder, Daniel Murphy, received in 2016. Barring another payroll clearing move, it will be difficult to sign Frazier at this price and remain under the luxury tax threshold. Thus, despite his positive clubhouse presence and powerful bat, a reunion between Frazier and the Yankees seems unlikely.</p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Brandon Phillips</span></b></span> is known for Gold Glove defense at second base. However, after the Braves recalled top prospect Ozzie Albies, Phillips was asked to move to the hot corner for the first time in his career. Phillips excelled when given the opportunity, converting all 45 of his chances into outs. Granted, the sample size of just 25 games was minimal, but Phillips nonetheless proved that he can handle the move across the diamond.</p>
<p>Offensively, Phillips is one of just three active players with over 200 career home runs and stolen bases and still possesses moderate power and speed at the age of 36 years old. In addition, Phillips has consistently maintained an extremely low strikeout rate over his career; he struck out on just 12 percent of his plate appearances in 2017. With sluggers in the middle of the Yankees projected lineup, Phillips, and his ability to put the ball in play would fit well at the end of the order.</p>
<p>Phillips would certainly be a more affordable option than Frazier. Thus, although he is no longer a prominent run producer, Phillips will help the Yankees accomplish their goal of staying under the luxury tax threshold in hopes of being active with next year’s acclaimed free agent class.</p>
<h3>Internal Replacements</h3>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Miguel Andujar</span></b></span> would be one of the most likely and most affordable options to take over at the hot corner in 2018 and beyond. Andujar excelled at the plate in Double-A and Triple-A before he received a call to the majors in late June of 2017. His debut was a must-watch, highlighted by a two-run double that was crushed off the centerfield wall in Chicago. The trepidation in giving Andujar an everyday opportunity has never been about his offense, however. In his minor league career, Andujar owns a terrible .915 fielding percentage, due in part to his still developing footwork and strong, but inaccurate, arm. Thus, if Cashman and the Yankees do in fact give the opening day job to Andujar, it will be because they believe his defense has improved during the offseason.</p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px;line-height: 107%;font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif;font-size: 12pt"><b><span style="color: #000000">Gleyber Torres</span></b></span> is the seventh-ranked prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus’ 2017 rankings. In his first year in the system, Torres became the youngest player to ever win Arizona Fall League MVP at just 19 years old. Scouts believe that Gleyber possesses all five tools and has benefited from his quick hands on defense and at the plate. One of the most exciting developments for Torres in 2017, before Tommy John surgery ended his season, was the power that he showed across two levels, slugging seven home runs and 23 total extra-base hits in just 55 games. On defense, Torres is most experienced at shortstop, but the Venezuelan infielder is a great athlete and can play multiple positions such as second and third base.</p>
<p>It is only a matter of time before Yankee fans see Torres in the Bronx; some in the organization were reportedly inclined to make the super prospect the opening day shortstop last season with Didi Gregorius injured. One factor, however, that could delay Torres’ ascent to the majors would be the front office’s desire to delay his free agency. If Torres were to spend the first few weeks of the season in Triple-A, the Bombers would push back his free agency by one year. Delaying such a special prospect’s free agency would likely be a wise move by the Yankees, however, Torres may be able to convince them to do otherwise during spring training with his potent bat and versatile defense.</p>
<p>General manager Brian Cashman recently suggested that he is prepared to use internal options to fill the remaining holes in the Yankee infield. One can assume, however, that Cashman will continue to explore the trade and free agent market to provide some insurance for his inexperienced players. The top of the Yankees projected batting order resembles that of an All-Star team, giving them the unique opportunity to install at third base a combination of exciting prospects and reliable veterans in 2018.</p>
<p>(Photo credit: Kim Klement / USA Today)</p>
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		<title>Comparing Didi Gregorius to past Yankee shortstops</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/20/comparing-to-didi-gegorius-to-past-yankee-shortstops/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/20/comparing-to-didi-gegorius-to-past-yankee-shortstops/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Aug 2017 15:00:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cen Koci]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius prior to the 2015 season in a three-team trade involving the Tigers and Diamondbacks that sent righty Shane Greene to Detroit, the Bombers added the Dutch shortstop in the hopes that he could take over the everyday shortstop job following Derek Jeter’s retirement. At the time of the trade, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius prior to the 2015 season in a three-team trade involving the Tigers and Diamondbacks that sent righty Shane Greene to Detroit, the Bombers added the Dutch shortstop in the hopes that he could take over the everyday shortstop job following Derek Jeter’s retirement. At the time of the trade, Gregorius had a reputation for being sure-handed defensively but remained a work in progress at the plate with just a .243 career batting average. But now, in his third season as the everyday shortstop, Sir Didi, as he has been affectionately nicknamed by Yankee fans, has developed into the hitter that the Yankees envisioned and is in the midst of a breakout campaign.</p>
<p>Gregorius began the season on the disabled list after injuring his right shoulder during the World Baseball Classic. Since being activated in late April, he has hit well enough to become a fixture in the middle of the Yankees’ vaunted lineup. Despite missing nearly one month of action, Gregorius ranks seventh in hits among Major League shortstops and fifth in batting average, home runs, and RBI. Gregorius has also amassed the fifth highest bWARP at his position (3.70). Sir Didi has ingratiated himself into the class of elite shortstops in Major League Baseball including Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Corey Seager. One question that remains is how his 2017 season compares to that of the best Yankee shortstops from years past.</p>
<p><strong><em>1999 Derek Jeter</em></strong></p>
<p>The Yankee Captain was transcendent in what was likely the best season of his career in 1999. Jeter set career highs in nearly every major offensive statistic, including Home Runs (24), RBI (102), batting average (.349) and runs scored (134). In just his age 25 season, Derek Jeter finished 6<sup>th</sup> in MVP voting and was elected to his second All-Star team. Jeter, like Gregorius, began his career alongside other young, outstanding shortstops like Nomar Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada. While both Yankee shortstops were highly touted as prospects during their time in the minor leagues, Jeter certainly debuted with more fanfare after being the 6<sup>th</sup> overall pick in the 1992 MLB Draft and the 4<sup>th</sup> ranked prospect by Baseball America in 1995.</p>
<p>It is impossible to replace a player that collected 3,465 hits, 14 All-Star selections, five World Series Championships and a career WARP of 59.1. Gregorius however, has thrived under the pressure of being The Captain’s immediate successor.</p>
<p><strong><em>1962 Tom Tresh</em></strong></p>
<p>The Rookie of the Year and World Series Champion played his best season as the Yankees’ primary shortstop in 1962. With incumbent shortstop Tony Kubek serving in the military at the beginning of the 1962 season, Tresh was called upon as his replacement. Much like Gregorius, Tresh did not disappoint in his substitute role as he produced 20 home runs and 93 RBI during the regular season and added a game-winning home run in Game Five of that year&#8217;s World Series. Tresh hit the ground running with an impressive debut campaign and would play for the Yankees for seven more seasons.</p>
<p>In comparison to Gregorius who has played very well defensively at shortstop this year, Tresh’s horrid -13.9 Fielding Runs Above Average provides evidence as to why he was pushed to the outfield following Kubek’s return. Tresh did damage with the bat in ‘62, enough to make up for a poor defensive season and still accumulate a WARP of 4.4.</p>
<p><strong><em>1950 Phil Rizzuto</em></strong></p>
<p>Known for his slick-fielding abilities, The Scooter surprised Yankee fans with a remarkable season at the plate en route to a Most Valuable Player award in 1950. Rizzuto finished second in baseball in runs scored (125) and eighth in batting average (.324) as the leadoff hitter in front of fellow Hall of Famers Berra and DiMaggio. The 5’ 6’’ shortstop was a key member of eight World Series Champion teams including five straight from 1949 to 1953.</p>
<p>Much like Jeter and Gregorius, Rizzuto was also introduced to the league alongside a class of young, talented shortstops including Lou Boudreau and cross-town rival Pee Wee Reese. The Scooter played 13 seasons in a Yankee uniform and had his number retired in 1985.</p>
<table width="491">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="89"><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>Season</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="55"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="72"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">Didi Gregorius*</td>
<td width="55">2017</td>
<td width="55">.307</td>
<td width="55">52</td>
<td width="55">18</td>
<td width="55">58</td>
<td width="55">.497</td>
<td width="72">3.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">Derek Jeter</td>
<td width="55">1999</td>
<td width="55">.349</td>
<td width="55">134</td>
<td width="55">24</td>
<td width="55">102</td>
<td width="55">.552</td>
<td width="72">6.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">Tom Tresh</td>
<td width="55">1962</td>
<td width="55">.286</td>
<td width="55">94</td>
<td width="55">20</td>
<td width="55">93</td>
<td width="55">.441</td>
<td width="72">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">Phil Rizzuto</td>
<td width="55">1950</td>
<td width="55">.324</td>
<td width="55">125</td>
<td width="55">7</td>
<td width="55">66</td>
<td width="55">.439</td>
<td width="72">7.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>*<i>As of August 18, 2017</i></p>
<p>With over 40 games remaining, Gregorius’ 2017 season should compare favorably to some of the best seasons by a Yankee shortstop in franchise history. Didi is the Yankees shortstop of the present and future and it will be interesting to see if he can eventually help lead his team to a World Championship as his predecessors did.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: Gregory J. Fisher / USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How do Yankees’ Late-Inning Flamethrowers Compare to Recent Championship Bullpens?</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/06/how-do-yankees-late-inning-flamethrowers-compare-to-recent-championship-bullpens/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jun 2017 10:09:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cen Koci]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Few teams have put together a trio of relievers as dominant as the Yankees’ group in the first half of the 2016 season. The Bombers signed Andrew Miller prior to 2015 and added Aroldis Chapman via trade to join incumbent relief ace Dellin Betances. The Betances-Miller-Chapman combination performed as advertised in 2016, as the Yankees [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Few teams have put together a trio of relievers as dominant as the Yankees’ group in the first half of the 2016 season. The Bombers signed Andrew Miller prior to 2015 and added Aroldis Chapman via trade to join incumbent relief ace Dellin Betances. The Betances-Miller-Chapman combination performed as advertised in 2016, as the Yankees were 19-2 in games in which all three pitchers appeared. While the Bombers traded away their lefty studs Chapman and Miller, prior to the 2016 deadline, they were able to resign Chapman to a long-term deal this winter.</p>
<p>As one half of the Yankees’ current late-inning tandem, Betances has been one of the most valuable relievers in baseball over the past three seasons. The New York native compiled a total PWARP of 8.59 from 2014-2016, highest among relievers with more than ninety innings pitched over that span. Betances also maintained an impressive 14.28 K/9, including a league-best 15.50 mark in 2016. However, the right-hander was subject to some bad luck in 2016, as his ERA and WHIP inflated while his DRA remained consistent with his career averages. Betances is on pace for a career-low workload in 2017, however, his ratio statistics such as his 16.10 K/9 and 0.73 ERA point to this being one of the best seasons of Betances’ young career.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="125">Season</td>
<td width="125">ERA</td>
<td width="125">WHIP</td>
<td width="125">BABIP</td>
<td width="125">DRA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="125">2014</td>
<td width="125">1.40</td>
<td width="125">0.78</td>
<td width="125">.241</td>
<td width="125">1.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="125">2015</td>
<td width="125">1.50</td>
<td width="125">1.01</td>
<td width="125">.257</td>
<td width="125">1.83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="125">2016</td>
<td width="125">3.08</td>
<td width="125">1.12</td>
<td width="125">.353</td>
<td width="125">1.79</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>(<em>Data Provided by Baseball Prospectus)</em></p>
<p>In return for Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees netted their top prospect Gleyber Torres from the Chicago Cubs, a worthwhile haul for just three months of service from the most powerful reliever in baseball. To illustrate Chapman’s overwhelming velocity, in July of 2016, Brooks Baseball documented a Chapman fastball released at 105.85 mph, breaking his own record of 105.81. With an imposing fastball-slider combination, Chapman collected 105 saves over the past three seasons. In 2017, Chapman’s rotator cuff inflammation has elevated Betances into the closer role temporarily, however the Yankees hope to have their flamethrower back by early June.</p>
<p>The Yankees have two talented pitchers to anchor the backend of their bullpen this season. With a rejuvenated offense and playoff hopes, it is worth asking, how the Bombers’ eighth and ninth inning options compare to some of the more dominant bullpen arms of recent World Series championship teams.</p>
<p><strong><em>2015 Kansas City Royals: Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera</em></strong></p>
<p>In 2015, the Royals pioneered a trend that has since been adopted by many other teams around the league – building a World Series roster around a versatile bullpen. The theme of the 2016 postseason was relief pitching after the Royals thrived with that same formula in 2015 and, due in part to the Royals’ success, three relief pitchers signed contracts of over $60 million this past offseason. Thus, the success of the Royals 2015 bullpen has changed the way teams build their rosters.</p>
<p>When closer Greg Holland was lost to injury in September of the 2015 season, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera were ready to fill the void. Davis held a 0.94 ERA and Herrera induced a low contact rate of 72.6%. Baffling opposing hitters for much of the 2015 season, Davis and Herrera combined for a PWARP of 3.9. The 2015 All-Stars pitched a total of nine innings in the World Series without allowing an earned run and with the aid of former first overall pick, Luke Hochevar, the backend of the Royals bullpen stifled the Mets on the way to their first World Series championship in thirty years.</p>
<p><strong><em>2010 San Francisco Giants: Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo</em></strong></p>
<p>In 2010, the Giants began their run of three World Series championships in five years. Closer Brian Wilson saved a league-best 48 games in an all-star campaign. Wilson added 6 more saves in the postseason without allowing a single run over 11.2 innings pitched. Set-up man Sergio Romo relied heavily on his slider in 2010, throwing it 43.71% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. The slider was extremely effective for Romo, as he induced a miniscule .171 batting average against that pitch.</p>
<p>Wilson and Romo paired with Jeremy Affeldt and the newly acquired Javier Lopez formed a formidable group on the Giants’ championship team. San Francisco retained most of this core throughout their subsequent World Series runs.</p>
<p><strong><em>1996 New York Yankees: John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera</em></strong></p>
<p>Turning back the clock a bit further in baseball history, we find one of the greatest Yankees bullpens of all time on the 1996 championship team. In his second and final season with the Yankees, closer John Wetteland saved 43 games with a 2.83 ERA. Wetteland earned World Series MVP honors that season after saving all four Yankee wins, allowing only one earned run. A set-up man at the time, Mariano Rivera burst onto the scene in 1996 and finished third in Cy Young Award voting. After struggling as a starter in his rookie 1995 season, the Yankees transitioned Rivera into a full-time reliever. Rivera often pitched multiple innings in the ’96 season, totaling 107.2 innings pitched over 61 relief appearances. In Rivera’s final season before taking over as the Yankees’ full-time closer he contributed a 2.98 PWARP, the highest among relievers in 1996. These two relievers were an unstoppable team and carried their success into the postseason.</p>
<p>The eighth and ninth inning pair of Betances and Chapman compare favorably to some of the more effective World Series bullpens in recent history, including arguably the best Yankees tandem of all time. Additionally, the ancillary bullpen arms of the 2017 Yankees have provided enough support for Betances and Chapman as Jonathan Holder, Tyler Clippard, and Adam Warren have all enjoyed early success. The Yankees possess a bullpen that is built to succeed in the postseason, and provided Chapman returns to full health, they rival any late-inning duo in recent history.</p>
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		<title>What will it take for the Yankees to get Jose Quintana?</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/what-will-it-take-for-the-yankees-to-get-jose-quintana/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Mar 2017 08:54:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cen Koci]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7866</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After two blockbuster trades this winter involving their former ace and leadoff hitter, the White Sox have firmly ingratiated themselves as a rebuilding team. Jose Quintana remains a member of the White Sox, but the question is still when rather than if he will be traded. The Yankees have been connected to Quintana for most [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After two blockbuster trades this winter involving their former ace and leadoff hitter, the White Sox have firmly ingratiated themselves as a rebuilding team. Jose Quintana remains a member of the White Sox, but the question is still <em>when </em>rather than <em>if </em>he will be traded. The Yankees have been connected to Quintana for most of the winter leading many to wonder—What would the Yankees have to give up in order add the coveted starter and improve their rotation? First, let&#8217;s discuss what makes this southpaw such a valuable trade chip.</p>
<p>Jose Quintana will be 28-years-old on Opening Day and will make $15.8 million over the next two years with $10.5 million club options in 2019 and 2020. Quintana’s current contract is a steal in today’s starting pitcher market. According to data provided by Jeff Euston of Baseball Prospectus, MLB teams paid an average $5.87 million per unit of WARP in 2016. Compare these figures to Quintana’s 2016 season in which he compiled a 4.2 WARP, and he could likely garner an average annual salary north of $20 million were he a free agent.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="89">Position</td>
<td width="89">Count</td>
<td width="89">Total WARP</td>
<td width="89">Avg WARP</td>
<td width="89">Total Salary</td>
<td width="89">Avg Salary</td>
<td width="89">$/WARP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="89">Starting Pitcher</td>
<td width="89">377</td>
<td width="89">336.3</td>
<td width="89">.89</td>
<td width="89">$1,975,175,223</td>
<td width="89">$5,239,192</td>
<td width="89">$5,873,200</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>(<em>Data Provided by Jeff Euston, Baseball Prospectus)</em></p>
<p>Consistency is an additional selling point for Quintana. Since 2013 he&#8217;s totaled 814 2/3 innings pitched and his ERA during that same period has fallen within the range of 3.20-3.51 each year. Injury and varying performance plague most teams attempting to build a solid starting rotation yet Quintana offers rare reliability.</p>
<p>Quintana is a valuable player for several reasons and it is difficult to forecast the returns for such a player without drawing comparisons to previous deals. Over the past few years, two starting pitchers with similar pedigrees to Quintana have been traded and the prospects that those pitchers have demanded in return can help determine an ideal haul for the Chicago lefty:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><em>David Price to the Tigers</em></h3>
<p>Before the 2014 trade deadline the Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays in exchange for Nick Franklin, Drew Smyly, and Willy Adames. At the time of the trade, Price was and in the middle of his fourth straight season of 200 or more innings pitched. Sound familiar?</p>
<p>Price, however was more of an established ace at that point, as opposed to Quintana who has filled more of a second-starter role during his career. Price won the Cy Young Award in 2013 and made four trips to the All-Star Game. Quintana on the other hand, was named to his first All-Star team last season. The greatest difference between the two lefties is that Price was scheduled to become a free agent after the 2015 season, giving Detroit less than two years of control.</p>
<p>Franklin was the highest ranked prospect in the deal — a utility man with speed and power. However, Franklin struggled in the major leagues before the trade, batting .214 as a Mariner. Smyly had a career ERA in the mid-threes while Adames was only 18 years old and far from the big leagues. Scouts at the time believed that the Rays did not get enough value in return for their ace.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><em>James Shields to the Royals</em></h3>
<p>In 2012 the Tampa Bay Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for a prospect package headlined by Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi. While the inclusion of Wade Davis does make comparing this trade to a possible Quintana trade more difficult, the similarities between 2012 Shields and 2016 Quintana are abundant. Shields was 30-years-old at the time of the trade and was known as an innings-eater. Additionally, Shields (like Quintana) rarely overpowered opponents with electric “stuff” as his teammate Price could.</p>
<p>In 2012, Myers was regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues and had just won the Minor League Player of the Year award. Baseball Prospectus ranked Myers as the 19<sup>th</sup> overall prospect in baseball. Odorizzi was a hard thrower and former first round pick who Baseball Prospectus ranked as the 47<sup>th</sup> overall prospect in the sport. Both projectable young players had Rays fans excited for the future of their franchise.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><em>Quintana to the Yankees?</em></h3>
<p>Trades of Price, Shields, and the like have given us a framework for composing a package of prospects that could help the Yankees pry Quintana from the White Sox. The Yankees have an incredibly deep farm system that matches well with some of the White Sox’ needs. For instance, aside from the newly acquired Yoan Moncada, the White Sox’s farm system lacks an impact hitter. Luckily the Bombers can accommodate such a request.</p>
<p>The Yankees and Brian Cashman would likely center a trade for Quintana around a hitter with a high ceiling much like Wil Myers in 2012. Assuming that Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier are off the table in negotiations for Quintana, the Yankees could headline the deal with the versatile Jorge Mateo or Blake Rutherford who has a smooth left-handed swing and loads of upside. Yankees brass loves these players, however, and as we&#8217;ve seen highly ranked prospects like Myers and Franklin are usually necessary to land a proven starting pitcher.</p>
<p>Other position players that the Yankees can gauge Chicago’s interest in are Thairo Estrada and Miguel Andujar. Estrada is stuck behind many of the Yankees’ middle infield prospects, but he has already shown the ability to play all over the infield in addition to an advanced approach at the plate. Andujar showed impressive contact skills and emerging power last season. Either of these two prospects would certainly add to Chicago’s current pool.</p>
<p>On the mound the White Sox are abound with minor league talent. However, as in the cases of Odorizzi and Smyly, a projectable pitcher with upside always adds value to a deal. One pitcher that I think would fit very well in a trade of this nature is Albert Abreu. Abreu, who was acquired in the Brian McCann trade, possesses a sinking fastball and an excellent curveball for his age. Adding him to a deal can pique the White Sox’ interest and allow the Yankees to hold on to two pitchers that they hope can help the major-league team in the near future – Justus Sheffield and James Kaprielian.</p>
<p>If the Yankees included Rutherford and Abreu in a proposal for Quintana they would have a very competitive offer compared to other potential offers from around the league. It is natural to be reluctant to give up this type of talent — Rutherford is BP’s No. 49 prospect and Abreu is No. 82 — however, to lure a starting pitcher of Quintana’s caliber the Yankees would need to best the offers of teams like the Astros and Pirates. The Yankees have so much talent in their minor league system that they would not feel depleted after this trade. If they were to strike a deal for Quintana they could slot him in as their second starter for years to come and (ideally) find out what he can do in the postseason.</p>
<p><em>Photo: Denny Medley / USATSI</em></p>
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		<title>Yankees 2017 fantasy outlook</title>
		<link>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/14/yankees-fantasy-baseball-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/14/yankees-fantasy-baseball-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Mar 2017 05:32:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cen Koci]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fantasy draft season is upon us and what better way to prepare than by looking at one of the more intriguing rosters in all of baseball – the New York Yankees? It looks like the Yankees will have a roster full of early round draft picks and multi-category fantasy contributors for years to come. However, as many [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fantasy draft season is upon us and what better way to prepare than by looking at one of the more intriguing rosters in all of baseball – the New York Yankees?</p>
<p>It looks like the Yankees will have a roster full of early round draft picks and multi-category fantasy contributors for years to come. However, as many superstar prospects are relegated to the minor leagues at the end of March, which Yankees will be able to help your fantasy team this season?</p>
<p>(Note: Analysis based on standard 12-team Rotisserie scoring)</p>
<h3>The Starting Rotation</h3>
<p><a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9922210_168381444_lowres.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-7732" src="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9922210_168381444_lowres-1024x683.jpg" alt="USATSI_9922210_168381444_lowres" width="1024" height="683" /></a></p>
<p>The Yankees’ starting rotation is thin with respect to top-tier fantasy players. Masahiro Tanaka is the clear ace of this pitching staff and is being drafted as the 20th starting pitcher off the board according to Fantasypros.com. Last season, Tanaka posted a solid 14 Wins with an impressive ERA and WHIP and the most encouraging sign was his career-high 199.2 innings pitched.</p>
<p>After a healthy and productive 2016 is there any reason to hesitate drafting the Yankees’ ace in 2017? In short, yes. Injury concerns will always be in the mind of any fantasy owner who invests in Tanaka in the early rounds, however it is his decreased strikeout rate that could lessen his value in 2017. Since his rookie season, Tanaka’s K/9 has declined consistently from 9.3 in his rookie year to 7.4 last season. Among qualified starters, Tanaka’s K/9 ranked 43rd in the big leagues. This decreased K/9 correlates to a drop in Tanaka’s swinging strike rate over the last three seasons, and for fantasy owners, less swings and misses translate to less strikeouts.</p>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Season</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>Swinging Strike Rate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>9.3</td>
<td>29.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>24.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>23.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Data Provided by Baseball Prospectus</em></p>
<p>Overall, Tanaka’s ratios (ERA and WHIP) were just short of elite last season and while he will not tally strikeouts like he did in his rookie season, the Yankees and fantasy owners alike will gladly except that tradeoff as he pitches more to contact and can possibly break 200 innings this season. I would feel comfortable drafting Tanaka as a top 20 starting pitcher in the ninth round to reap the benefits of his strong ratios.</p>
<p>At the back end of the rotation is an underwhelming five-man competition for the final two spots. Luis Severino seems to have the best chance at locking up a one job as the Yankees (understandably) want to give him as many chances as they can to prove himself. Severino broke camp as a member of the rotation last year and was viewed by many fantasy owners as a breakout candidate. The Yankees’ flamethrower pitched very poorly, ultimately landing on the Disabled List in May followed by a demotion to the minors. Severino was moved exclusively to the bullpen in September where he thrived. Over 16 innings pitched in September, he increased his slider usage significantly and the results were fantastic. Severino induced a .111 batting average against his slider in September compared to a .316 average against that pitch as a starter over the first two months of the season according to BrooksBaseball.</p>
<p>Thus far in spring training, Severino has emphasized the importance of his changeup—a pitch that he did not have success with as a starter in 2016 and almost completely eliminated as a reliever. Joe Girardi has been pleased with the progress of his changeup this spring which is very encouraging considering he will need a third pitch to succeed as a starter.</p>
<p>The best option for Severino would be to start the season in the minors to improve his changeup. However, the Yankees do not appear to have that luxury and Severino will likely begin the season in the big-league rotation once again. I love Severino’s outlook in the long term, however, I don’t foresee him becoming a mainstay in your fantasy lineup this season. You can draft Severino as a late-round flier and hope that he can work on his changeup enough in spring training to make it an effective third pitch.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Lineup</h3>
<p><a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9922402_168381444_lowres.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-7733" src="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/03/USATSI_9922402_168381444_lowres-1024x683.jpg" alt="USATSI_9922402_168381444_lowres" width="1024" height="683" /></a></p>
<p>The two most interesting fantasy players in the Yankee lineup this season are Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. Both hitters are difficult to project going forward as they each produced greater power numbers in the major-leagues than they did throughout their minor-league careers.</p>
<p>Gary Sanchez was a revelation last season as a rookie, carrying the Yankees offense at times down the stretch. However, fantasy owners have reason temper their expectations for the sophomore in 2017. Sanchez’s HR/FB percentage in 2016 was an even 40.0 percent—substantially above the league average. Considering an elite power threat like Mike Trout holds a career HR/FB percentage of 19.6 percent, Sanchez will surely be subject to considerable regression in 2017. The <em>extent</em> of Sanchez’s potential regression, however, is less obvious.</p>
<p>Sanchez’s strikeout rate spiked during his offensive outburst last season. The Yankees slugger maintained strikeout rates below 20 percent for much of his minor-league career, showing that he was never overmatched at any level. While Sanchez was certainly not overmatched in his 53 games last year, his high strikeout rate (24.9 percent) can reveal a potential hole in his swing. That said, you&#8217;re not drafting Sanchez in the early rounds with hopes that he will hit .320. A 30 homer, 100-RBI season would place him firmly among the top tier of fantasy catchers, if not atop the list, and it&#8217;s in the conversation.</p>
<p>There is a very wide array of plausible outcomes for Sanchez in 2017. Thus, risk adverse fantasy owners would prefer a more proven option like Salvador Perez, who would offer predictable production in the 11th round. If you can grab Sanchez in the sixth, go for it and hope that his strikeout rate does not continue to climb in his second season. Otherwise, wait to fill the catcher position and use your early round selections on a player with more major-league experience.</p>
<p>Greg Bird has piqued fantasy owners’ interests this spring as he has looked like the same power source that averaged 14.3 at bats per home run in his rookie season. Competition was the theme at first base when spring training began, but after Bird’s strong start and Tyler Austin’s injury, the tall left-handed hitter has quickly stepped forward as the everyday option. Much like Sanchez, Bird’s propensity for extra base hits was a pleasant surprise to Yankee fans. He was on pace for 42 home runs over a full season (600 at bats) in 2015, while his highest single-season total in the minor leagues was 20.</p>
<p>Yankee Stadium is the perfect ballpark for Bird (true for most left-handers) and he now has a clear path at regular playing time. Most projections peg Bird for home run totals in the low twenties, likely because Bird is recovering from a torn labrum. He&#8217;s put on a show thus far in spring training and has had ample time off since his surgery last year, so it seems he will outplay the expert predictions this season and be a steal in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. Of these two Baby Bombers, Bird provides almost as much fantasy upside (albeit at a deeper position) at a much lower price tag. Feel comfortable drafting Bird as your starting Corner Infielder in the 14th or 15th round.</p>
<p>The Yankees are sure to be a fun team to watch for years to come. Draft the right Bronx Bombers this season, and watch them produce for your fantasy team all year.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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