Thus far, the Yankees are very much for real, though that wasn’t much in question coming into the season. Their star player, Aaron Judge, is also legitimate, proven by a starter’s spot for the American League All-Stars and a plethora of standard and advanced statistics.

While the majority of Yankees fans likely didn’t doubt Judge’s legitimacy coming into 2018, the question of whether Judge was really this good definitely came up. The question’s answer? So far, not so much.

I think an underrated storyline this season has been “Aaron Judge is actually this good”

— Cespedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) July 3, 2018

I stumbled over this Cespedes Family BBQ tweet the other day and thought “huh, I really haven’t seen much chatter on this.” Well, here is some.

Entering Monday night, Judge has hit 25 homers (2nd in baseball), slugged .572 (8th), has a Statcast hard hit percentage of 48.3 percent (4th), a 4.39 BWARP (5th), 4.6 fWAR (5th) and 5.0 bWAR (9th). By all measures, he’s replicating his breakout 2017 season pretty well.

If we really want to be nit-picky, his counting numbers are a hint down from last year’s. And most projection systems believe his final statistics may be slightly less impressive than his numbers from 2017. But the decrease is like going from the average Barry Bonds season to that of Miguel Cabrera. Yes, there’s a decrease in output, but it’s minuscule enough that it doesn’t change who the player is. Judge unquestionably remains a top-10 hitter, if not player, in baseball.

And nearly every sign points for Judge to continue this type of performance. Like last season, Judge’s hits fall among the league’s top one percent in exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit rate. He’s actually hitting the ball harder in terms of exit velocity (96mph) than he did last year (94.9 mph). Judge hits the ball extremely hard and that hasn’t changed.

PECOTA projects Judge’s production to tail off a tad, but to still remain at an elite level. Combining his projections and his to-date stats, Judge would finish with a .268/.382/.546 slash line, 42 homers, 103 RBIs and a 6.5 WARP. For reference, his WARP from last year was 7.3.

Is it really surprising that a 6’7, 282-lb dude who hits the baseball harder than almost anyone ever can repeat a breakout season? No, not really. But to answer the questions posed last year and this offseason, yes, Judge really is this good.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Shreve is posting a career-high 12.36 strikeouts per nine innings, which falls in the top 25 among MLB relievers with more than 10 innings pitched. Robertson has a K/9 of 11.06.

Yet, both Shreve’s and Robertson’s strikeout figures are dwarfed by the mammoth duo of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, who place second and third in the category, respectively. Then add Chad Green, who strikes out 11.57 batters per nine; and Adam Warren, who has struck out 12 batters in 9.2 innings this season.

Add it all up, and Yankees relievers are posting the highest K/9 rate of any bullpen … ever.

It’s not surprising that, in 2018, a bullpen is on pace to break a strikeout record. Prior to the 2010 season, almost no bullpens struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. This season, the Yankees (12.13), Brewers (10.41), Astros (10.41) and Mariners (10.38) bullpens are all striking batters out above that clip. Four relieving corps achieved a K/9 of above 10 in 2017 as well.

But this isn’t to discredit the Yankees’ feat. A K/9 of 12.13 is still more than one batter per nine better than any past bullpen’s strikeout rate. The Yankees led baseball with a K/9 ratio of 10.92 in 2017 and 10.15 in 2016.

To better put the ratio in perspective, I’ll convert the stat into three-inning increments, a more feasible measure of a bullpen’s game-by-game performance.

The Brewers can thank the incredible Josh Hader, who is striking out more than two batters per inning (Seriously, Hader has an 18.09 K/9 … Chapman is at 16.42, and Betances’ is 15.48), for their stellar ranking. The Mariners have Edwin Diaz, who comes in fourth with a 14.78 K/9. The Astros don’t have anyone who jumps off the page, but their bullpen generally strikes out a ton of batters.

Value of the strikeout

The relief crews for New York, Milwaukee, Houston and Seattle pretty universally top the 2018 statistical leaderboards, and a closer look at these four bullpens shows just how valuable the strikeout is for the Yankees.

If you isolate the strikeout, the Brewers, Astros and Mariners bullpens look better than the Yankees. The other units walk fewer batters, give up fewer home runs and leave more runners on base. And of the contact they induce, Brewers, Astros, and Mariners relievers generate more groundballs than Yankees relievers do.

In those categories, however, the Yankees aren’t just fighting against the other best three bullpens in baseball. They’re in the middle of the pack, at best. New York ranks 19th in BB/9, 15th in HR/9, 19th in LOB% and 26th in GB%.

Contrarily, the Yankees bullpen ranks first in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), at 3.6. And this speaks to the historical strikeout rate its relievers are producing. A handful of measurables suggests that the Yankees’ bullpen is average. But a strikeout rate of more than one batter per inning higher than any other bullpen in history can soundly mask that handful. If Yankees relievers continue to strikeout batters at this wild clip, expect the ‘pen to continue superseding its mediocre non-K stats.

Stats as of Wednesday, June 6 

Photo credit: Brad Penner / USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees (91-71) and Minnesota Twins (85-77) will play in the American League Wild Card Game on Tuesday. The winner will face the Cleveland Indians in the Division Series.

The Yankees were supposedly in the midst of a rebuild, and so were the Twins. But both teams became good really quickly and that led them to playoff berths. On Opening Day, Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report listed New York’s playoff chances at 30 percent and Minnesota’s at 20.5.

The probable starters for the contest are Luis Severino (3.05 DRA) and Ervin Santana (3.74 DRA), who each broke out in 2017.

In six months, Severino has turned from fringe-rotational presence to ace. The young righty has increased his average fastball velocity steadily throughout his career. This season, it’s climbed from 97.26 in April to 98.12 in September.

Additionally, Severino has been mixing in his offspeed pitches more. He’s using his fastball about 5 percent less than last season and his changeup about 4 percent more. In turn, batters are struggling mightily against his offspeed pitches.

The Twins fall in the middle of the pack hitting-wise in most offensive categories, but they’ve excelled to an extent against righties, whom they’ve posted top ten rankings against in OBP (.355) and OPS (.777).

On the mound, Minnesota throws out Santana, whose brutal track at the new Yankee Stadium includes an 0-5 record and a 6.43 ERA. Santana owns reverse splits, where righties are inducing a lot more damage against the veteran. His stats are still regressing from an inflated .212 first-half BABIP, but Santana has proven reliability and legitimacy.

Minnesota’s cause for concern will be the Yankees bats, which have knocked a league-leading 51 homers since September 1. In that span, they also lead MLB in ISO and pretty remarkably hold the fifth lowest K% (19.4).

Bullpens always play a big part in Wild Card games, and the Yankees have an upper edge in the relief department. The Twins dealt All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler away in the middle of the season, leaving an already inexperienced bullpen with less experience. Meanwhile, the Yankees boast the notable Dellin Betances-Aroldis Chapman duo, accompanied by Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, and Chad Green, who have all impressed in the second half.

The Yankees are hot at the right time and they seemingly always beat Minnesota in the playoffs. The numbers suggest New York takes this one, but the Twins have been defying odds all year. Both teams have been wildly unpredictable, expect the game to be that way as well.

Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton / USA TODAY Sports

His freakish build and dynamite fastball-curve combo have helped him anchor a position in the Yankees bullpen for four years now. For the most part, Betances has eviscerated opposing hitters, and throughout his career, the sheer nastiness of his pitches has helped mask command issues.

However, periodic blips have dotted Betances’s radar, bloating his ERA during select stretches of play. His most recent pitching slump lasted from June 22 to July 5. During that stretch, Betances threw 4 2/3 innings, allowed nine earned runs and walked 12 batters. A simple reasoning for this struggle is a loss of command. I compared his pitch outcomes from Opening Day until June 21 with his outcomes from June 22 to July 5.

(April 1 – June 21)

(June 22 – July 5)

Luckily for the Yankees, Betances has recovered. When looking at his pitch outcomes since July 6, you can see that the righty reliever has improved both fastball and curveball command. He’s not getting as many whiffs as he did near the beginning of the season, but that has not impacted his effectiveness.

(July 6 – August 11)

Betances’ favorite spot is the lower outside corner on the right half of the plate. This is where his curveball digs in against lefties and forces righties to chase. He also paints his four-seamer in that location as well. During his mid-season slump, Betances had a difficult time hitting that spot. But since July 5, he has been painting that corner.

(June 22 – July 5)

(July 6 – August 10)

His better control has paid dividends on the stat sheet. Opposing batters are hitting just .137 in Betances’ 15 innings since July 6. Since that stretch, he is posting a 1.20 ERA.

Don’t get me wrong, Betances still struggles with command. In those 15 innings, he has allowed 10 walks. His current BB% of 17.5 percent leads all relievers in the Majors. But when he is on, his stuff masks the command issues, as mentioned before. Betances’ K% of 41 percent is fourth among relievers in the Majors. He is the equivalent of a home run-hitting, strikeout machine whose production outweighs his strikeouts.

With a re-tooled bullpen, a lethal version of Betances makes the late innings look a lot scarier for opposing teams and fortunately for the Yankees, it looks like Dellin’s got his groove back.

Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz / USA TODAY Sports

If you still need proof that batting average and on-base percentage are flawed, surface-level statistics, Brett Gardner’s player card is the perfect evidence. In about 175 fewer plate appearances, Gardner has reached his 3.0 WARP mark from last year. He has also brought his TAv up from .254 to .282. His slugging percentage (.457) is up almost a century mark from last year’s total (.362). The same can be said about his ISO (.101 to .197).

That being said, his production has not been consistent. Gardner’s early spike in power was fueled by an inflated HR/FB ratio, which reached 22 percent by June 5. Gardner hit 13 home runs through his first 55 games of 2017. To put that in perspective, he hit just 63 in his prior nine seasons as a Yankee. By June 16, Gardner was homering 5.3 times per 100 plate appearances. Prior to 2017, that rate was just 1.5.

So what was behind his sharp increase in power? A pair of stats that correlated almost identically with his homer total: pull percentage and hard contact rate.

(*thru June 16)

Gardner was setting massive career highs midway through June. He pulls almost every home run he hits, which explains the above table’s relation to his home run total at the time. He was also feasting on both sliders and sinkers, lofting them at an abnormally high rate.

Beginning of his career through 2016 season

April 1, 2017 - June 16, 2017

(Data provided by Brooks Baseball)

By mid-June, Gardner’s home run percentages on sinkers and sliders were astronomical in comparison to his career numbers. Albeit a relatively small sample size, Gardner homered eight times on the slider or sinker, which accounted for just one-third of the pitches he had seen by that time.

Let’s return to present day. Fresh off of his hitting streak, Gardner’s Hard% and Pull% have changed drastically, but predictably. His July Hard% (23.6) fell below his post-injury career average and his Pull% (36.1) hit around that average.

Interestingly enough, his hitting streak actually pulled those numbers closer to his career averages. He slashed .317/.397/.583 on that streak with four home runs, but this outburst was not nearly as fluky as his prior one. During this most recent 14-game stretch, Gardner’s Hard% was 27.5, his Pull% was 35.3 and his BABIP was .319. All three of those numbers look similar to his post-injury norms.

In essence, Gardner caught fire in a fluky way, regressed and then caught fire again in a non-fluky way. So what’s next for the 33-year-old outfielder?

His batted ball numbers will most likely continue to nosedive from June’s plateau, barring another strange power surge. PECOTA projects Gardner to regress pretty heavily in TAv and SLG the rest of the way out, but still finish with a career high in slugging and home runs (24).

He has been fooling projection systems all year, so who knows what Gardner has in store for the last two months of the regular season? Whether he sustains his hitting streak numbers or not, this late-career production has undoubtedly helped fuel the Yankees’ 2017 playoff hopes.

Mark Teixeira expected to announce his retirement later today, at 36, effective at the end of the season.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) August 5, 2016

Teixeira, 36, has struggled in the 77 games he’s played in 2016. The switch-hitting veteran is slashing .198/.287/.340 with 10 homers and just 27 RBI.

At this time last year, Teixeira was in great shape. He finished 2015 with a .313 TAv (.255/.357/.548), 31 home runs and 79 RBI in 111 games played. However, on August 17th, he suffered what was diagnosed as a fractured shin, an injury that would derail his late career.

Texeira is amidst his eighth season with the Yankees. The first of those seasons, 2009, was his best season. Tex batted .292 with a .383 OBP, 39 homers, and 120 RBI. Most of all, he was a crucial component to the Yankees’ championship ball club, finishing with a 3.6 WARP.

His prime was with Texas, however, where he boasted a 5.7 WARP season in 2005 (age 25), slashing .301/.379/.575 with 43 home runs and a whopping 144 RBI.

Teixeira will go down as one of the most powerful switch hitters in baseball history. While he likely won’t be a Hall of Fame candidate, the three-time all-star currently has 404 homers and 400 doubles in his 14th year as a big-leaguer.

Mark Teixeira is only 1B *ever* with 400+ HR, 1200+ RBI, 900+ BB, .500+ SLG, 5+ Gold Gloves, per Lee Sinins of @MLBNetwork Research. @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 5, 2016

With the future in the Yankees’ minds, it’s time to say goodbye to the first baseman who stood with A-Rod and C.C. Sabathia as the symbol of the recent veteran-laden era in Yankees history.

Photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports

For the first four innings, it looked as if New York would do it. Brian McCann launched a solo shot to put the Yankees on the board in the second. Nathan Eovaldi started strong, retiring 12 of the first 16 Twins.

However, Max Kepler lined a homer to right in the fifth, and the Twins offense continued in the sixth. With runners on, Eduardo Escobar looped a broken bat chip shot over the head of Ike Davis. Brian Dozier scored easily, and Trevor Plouffe avoided the Brian McCann tag at the plate to give Minnesota a 3-2 lead, knocking Eovaldi out of the game.

Kepler struck again, this time with an RBI single, against Dellin Betances. Kurt Suzuki proceeded to double in Kepler, giving the Twins a 5-2 lead. Brian Dozier homered in the seventh to extend Minnesota’s lead to four.

The Yankees threatened in the eighth. Following Ike Davis’ single, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner each reached base on errors. With the score at 6-3, two runners on, and one out, the Yankees brought Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez to the plate. In their biggest threat, New York saw Beltran and A-Rod strike out against Twins reliever Taylor Rogers.

The Yankees didn’t threaten in the ninth, and dropped the final game of their 3-3 six-game road trip.

The Play: Eduardo Escobar’s 3-RBI Triple (+.288 WPA)

Top Performers

Yankees: Brian McCann (3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI)

Twins: Brian Dozier/Max Kepler (Each 2-4, HR) Ervin Santana (7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K)

Notes

– With his losing effort, Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 20 earned runs in his last 20 innings. He hasn’t thrown a quality start since May 29th.

– With his 0-3 performance, Chase Headley’s seven game hitting streak ends at seven.

– Brian McCann and Brett Gardner, both who have been enduring slumps, combined for five hits in the series finale.

Up Next

The Yankees have the Rockies again, this time at home. On Tuesday, the Yankees will throw Ivan Nova (5-4, 4.77 ERA, 4.95 DRA) while Colorado will roll out Chad Bettis (5-5, 5.63 ERA, 5.52 DRA), who beat the Yankees in his start last Wednesday.

Photo: Brad Rempel / USA Today Sports

The hurlers matched the hype for the first four innings. However, with runners at the corners in the fifth, Tanaka faced trouble. Then, things got out of hand, and the Yankees fell, 6-1.

The Play: Ian Kinsler’s three-run homer (.240 WPA)

Tanaka threw left a fastball over the plate and the Missouri product, Kinsler, made him pay. Kinsler’s fifth inning blast marked his 12th homer this season, tied with three others (Cabrera, J. Martinez, Castellanos) for the team lead on the Tigers.

The Yanks were shut down the rest of the way until the ninth, where the Tigers bullpen became the Tigers bullpen, loading the bases with two outs. Unfortunately for the Yankees, they couldn’t capitalize on the threat.

Top Performers

Yankees: Rob Refsnyder (2-3, RBI)

Tigers: Justin Verlander (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K), Ian Kinsler (2-4, 2B, HR, 5 RBI)

Notes

— Ian Kinsler’s homer in the fifth marked the 196th of his career. He’s on pace for over 30 homers and 100 RBIs, a feat the veteran has yet to accomplish in a season.

— The loss marked the end of a five-game winning streak for the Yankees, a streak in which they averaged 6.6 runs per game.

— The Yankees fall back to .500. Their brief reign above marked just the seventh day in 2016 the Yanks have had a winning record.

Up Next

It’s Old-timer’s Day at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. The Yankees and Tigers square off in a rubber match at 2:05 ET, with Michael Pineda (3-6, 4.11 DRA) taking the hill for the Yankees. In a rocky season, Pineda has shined in his last two starts, allowing just four runs in 12.1 while striking out twelve. The younger and more effective Michael, Michael Fulmer (6-1, 3.18 DRA), will be on the mound for Detroit. The young righty sports a 22.1 inning scoreless streak.

Photo: Noah K. Murray / USATSI

Friday night marked yet another frustrating one to be a Yankee fan. With a 5-2 lead in the sixth, Nate Eovaldi loaded the bases for Matt Wieters. On what should have been ball four, Wieters scooped a single into shallow left, cutting the Yankees lead to just one.

(Credit: YES Network)

Kirby Yates relieved Eovaldi following the Wieters single and promptly retired the first batter, recording the second out of the inning. However, Jonathan Schoop doubled to bring home Mark Trumbo, tying the contest at five.

At this point, it wasn’t bold to predict another Yankee defeat, and the seventh inning would nearly cement that prediction. After a pair of singles, Dellin Betances induced a groundout from Manny Machado, allowing a run to score. Betances made quick work of Trumbo and Chris Davis via the K, but picked up the loss in doing so.

Chase Headley singled with one out in the ninth to give the Yanks a glimmer of hope. Austin Romine proceeded to erase that hope, grounding into a game-ending double play. The loss marks New York’s seventh in their last ten games.

Top Play: Carlos Beltran’s fourth inning 2-run homer (.223 WPA)

Chris Tillman had cruised through the first three innings before running into trouble in the fourth. Tillman lost command, and when he found the zone, it was hit hard. Beltran and A-Rod went back-to-back, with Romine following with a solo jack to kick off the top of the fifth.

Top Performers:

Yankees: Brett Gardner (2-4, BB, R)

Orioles: Mark Trumbo (3-4, 2B, 2 R)

Notes:

– Mark Teixeira left the game in the third inning with right knee ‘discomfort’

– Dellin Betances picked up his third loss of the season, just one shy of his total last year

– Nate Eovaldi earned his 500th strikeout in the third inning when he fanned Hyun Soo Kim

– Brett Gardner broke out of his miserable 0-24 slump with a hit in the first. He singled in the seventh as well.

The Quote:

“He needed a shovel to hit this one” — Ken Singleton describing Matt Wieters’ two RBI single

Up Next:

The Yankees will put Ivan Nova (3-3, 5.15 DRA) on the hill to face Baltimore righty Tyler Wilson (2-4, 5.25 DRA). Nova has lost consecutive starts against Toronto after winning two in a row against Oakland and Chicago.

Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski /USA TODAY Sports

Despite facing a trio of one-win pitchers and a not-so-sunny version of Sonny Gray, New York’s offense still displayed promise, posting four or more runs in each game played.

With a chance to leap back in the early AL East race, the Yanks will face slightly tougher tasks on the mound.

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday: 7:05 EST – R.A. Dickey vs. Nathan Eovaldi

In the lone matchup against a knuckleballer this season, New York tallied just three hits in Steven Wright’s complete game effort for Boston. While it may be an unfair comparison to Toronto’s R.A. Dickey, given that Wright’s owns a top 30 PWARP and Dickey barely cracks the top 200, the Yankees were baffled by the knuckleball earlier this month.

Despite Dickey’s struggles this year, he has actually fared much better on the road. The 41-year-old boasts a 3.04 ERA (3.40 FIP) in games away from home. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Eovaldi has also performed better on the road. In his home difficulties, Nate has been quite unlucky, holding a .348 BABIP at Yankee Stadium.

Wednesday: 7:05 EST – Marco Estrada vs. Ivan Nova

Marco Estrada seems to improve every year, 2016 being no exception. Estrada displays a four-pitch arsenal, topping out around 90 MPH, but his command has yielded a solid 2.60 ERA (3.24 FIP). The current Yankees have his number, however, collectively slashing .295/.348/.554 against the seasoned righty.

Joe Girardi and Larry Rothschild have been easing Ivan Nova into the rotation of late. Nova tossed six innings in his last start on just 62 pitches, but continued to impress. He’s given up just three runs in his last three starts, solidifying a role for himself as a starter. Toronto likely poses as his toughest starting task of the year to this point.

Thursday: 4:05 EST – Aaron Sanchez J.A. Happ* vs. CC Sabathia

Contrary to Estrada, Aaron Sanchez is a hard-throwing pitcher. He generally works off of three pitches, ranging from 78 mph to 95 mph. Command has been an issue throughout his career, but the young righty has held opposing batters to just a .231 AVG in 2016, boasting a 3.20 ERA (3.30 FIP).

This matchup will mark CC’s second start off the 15-Day DL. In his first, the veteran lefty tossed 6 1/3 innings of one-run, eight strikeout ball. With a slew of righty, power-heavy bats in the Blue Jays lineup, this matchup will pose much more of a challenge for Sabathia than his Friday start against Oakland.

Other Notes:

Jose Bautista has been on fire after getting drilled in the face by Rougned Odor’s right fist. Joey Bats dragged a .217 BA into that game with just six home runs up to that point. In the seven games to follow, Bautista has awoken, hitting .304 with four homers.

UPDATE 5:00 P.M.

Sanchez has been pushed back to the Boston series to gain an extra day of rest. Happ will starts series finale vs NYY. #BlueJays

— Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) May 24, 2016

Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said the move was made to give Sanchez extra rest and that he’s healthy.

Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski / USA TODAY Sports