The g**damn frustrating joy of baseball lies in its predictability.

In 2015, when opposing batters swung at the first pitch off Masahiro Tanaka, they slugged .508 with four home runs.

In September/October, the Yankees offense ranked last or second-to-last in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.

In two regular season starts, Dallas Keuchel dominated the Yankees. In 16 innings, he held New York batters to .161/.175/.179, while striking out 21 and walking just one.

Of course, each trend represents a small sample size, largely irrelevant in a one-game, winner-or-go-home scenario.

On Tuesday night in the Bronx, though, all three trends would continue in the AL Wild Card game between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. The Astros would jump all over a couple first pitch mistakes against Tanaka, and the Yankees hitters could not advance past second base against Keuchel and three Houston relievers. A 3-0 Astros victory never really felt in doubt.

Tanaka had struggled in his only previous start against the Astros in 2015. On June 27 at Houston, he needed 98 pitches to get through five innings, allowing six earned runs and nine base runners. On this night, his final line (5 IP, 4 H, 3 K, 2 BB, 2 ER) was adequate, and good enough certainly to keep the Yankees in the game.

Tanaka started off strong, striking out Jose Altuve and George Springer to open the game. On 3-and-2 against Altuve, Tanaka came with an 88 MPH cutter on the outside corner for a swinging strike three. Prior to this at-bat, Altuve had never struck out against a cutter from a right-handed pitcher.

Colby Rasmus got the scoring started on the first pitch of the second inning, launching an inside fastball into the right field bleachers. This season, Rasmus hit 18 of his 25 home runs against right-handers (along with a .476 slugging percentage and .243 ISO). He also hit three home runs and slugged .957 on the first pitch. And when right-handers came over the inner half of the plate, Rasmus did considerable damage:

Throw in Tanaka’s 2015 first pitch struggles mentioned above, and it is easy to understand why A.J. Hinch penciled Rasmus into the cleanup spot.

Carlos Gomez’s homer on the first pitch of the fourth inning stretched the Astros lead to 2-0. Gomez’s struggles once he arrived in Houston were well documented (.242/.288/.383, .241 TAv), but despite his second half difficulties, right-handed pitchers did not fare well at the top of the strike zone in 2015:

The Astros would add another run in the seventh inning, when Altuve got the bat head on a Dellin Betances curve that was halfway to the Yankees dugout, and dumped it into left field for an RBI single.

Offensively, October 6 looked eerily similar to October 4 and the preceding month. The Yankees had just five base runners (three hits and two walks), and not one advanced past second base. Four Astros pitchers retired the final 10 hitters. For the first time since mid-August, the Yankees failed to produce an extra base hit at hone.

Much of the talk before the game was focused on Jacoby Ellsbury starting his night on the bench. However, Ellsbury’s 2015 production against left-handed pitchers (.253/.327/.325), along with a brutal September (.202/.254/.246 in 123 plate appearances), made him a seemingly easy sit against Keuchel.

Brett Gardner, who also struggled in the season’s final month (.198/.271/.321), was actually above average against left-handers (.276/.361/.400). Gardner struck out three times against Keuchel, and looked uncomfortable at the plate. His eighth inning groundout brought with it a cascade of boos from the home crowd.

The Yankees, however, appeared to have a few decent changes in the game’s opening innings.

As John Kruk noted in the first inning, Keuchel was missing high early. In 2015, Keuchel threw more innings (232.0) and pitches (3,492) than any pitcher in the AL. He was a workhorse in September, tossing 39.1 innings and 654 pitches in six starts. Just to add to his degree of difficulty, Keuchel was making his first career start on three days rest. 

All of this wear showed early, as he needed 39 pitches to get through the first two innings. The Yankees, however, could not capitalize on multiple pitches left over the plate, managing just a Chris Young walk in the first and Chris Young single in the second. For a team that finished second in the AL in fly ball percentage (37.9 percent) and fifth in home run to fly ball ratio (12.5 percent), the Yankees could muster just three fly balls against Keuchel over six innings. 

Keuchel would settle in, requiring just 33 pitches to get through innings two, three, and four. He needed 87 pitches, allowing three hits and one walk, while striking out seven. 

The Yankees mounted their best threat against Keuchel with two outs in the sixth inning. Leading off, Didi Gregarious bounced a base hit into right field. After a Gardner strikeout and Young fielder’s choice, Carlos Beltran lined a pitch left over the plate into centerfield for a base hit. With two outs and runners on first and second, Alex Rodriguez stepped to the plate as the go-ahead run. This season, Rodriguez slugged .559 with four home runs on the first pitch. Against Keuchel, he made good contact, but it resulted in a fly out to center field.

The Bronx again stirred with some optimism when Keuchel left the game after six shutout innings. Astros left-hander Tony Sipp labored with deep counts, needing 23 pitches, but the Yankees offense again failed to advance a runner past second. A one-out Chase Headley walk went by the wayside, as Greg Bird struck out looking on a full count and Rob Refsnyder flied out to right field.

Will Harris set the Yankees down in order in the eighth, including an Ellsbury plate appearance that resulted in a ground out. Within 10 minutes of the game’s completion, MLB Network analysts were criticizing Joe Girardi’s decision to bench Ellsbury.

Luke Gregerson retired the side in the order in the home half of the ninth, including back-to-back strikeouts of Beltran and Rodriguez. A Brian McCann groundout to Carlos Correa would send the Yankees into the offseason.

The team now turns toward 2016 with plenty of questions, offensively (can Rodriguez, McCann, and Mark Teixeira produce at similar levels and stay healthy?), for the rotation (who are the fourth and fifth starters?), and figuring out why Billy Crystal looked so befuddled.

The Astros, whose 14.9 percent playoff odds on Opening Day was fourth highest in the AL West, will advance to face the Kansas City Royals in the American League Division Series. Like we said, baseball is so darn predictable.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports)

As they try to change their worlds

Are immune to your consultations

They’re quite aware of what they’re going through

44 years after David Bowie sang about the resistance faced by youth, and 30 years after John Hughes co-opted the lyrics to represent upper middle-class teenage angst in a fictional Chicago suburb, baseball’s young sluggers have kicked down the game’s door and announced their arrival. As a result, the 2015 regular season might very well be remembered as the year of the power-hitting rookies.

As of August 27th, 16 rookies had at least 10 home runs, with another 7-10 players having realistic chances of reaching double digit totals. Amazingly, in 2014, just 14 rookies hit at least 10 home runs. In fact, 2015 rookies have already out homered 2014 rookies 476 to 471, with more than a month remaining in the season. Thanks to the season-long mashing of Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson, and the more recent surge from Miguel Sano and Kyle Schwarber, rookies are slugging at incredible rates. As you can see below, rookie power is up significantly from last season:

Of course, it should be noted that, as of this writing, league-wide power is up across the board from 2014:

Bryant, Pederson, and Sano are part of a historic group of rookie hitters, but before there was the class of 2015, there was the Yankees’ Shane Spencer. Spencer arrived in the majors in late 1998, and in 73 plate appearances over 27 games, he put up power numbers in a small window that few rookies ever have, including this year’s group. In the 73 plate appearances, he hit six doubles and 10 home runs, numbers that even this year’s stellar bunch could not match in their first 73 career trips to the plate:

*Includes plate appearances from 2014

Only Schwarber, who appears to be a perennial 35-40 home run hitter, really came close to matching Spencer’s production.

The Yankees, of course, likely did not expect 10 home runs in 73 plate appearances, otherwise they would not have kept a 26-year-old in the minors. However, prior to his arrival in the Bronx, Spencer had demonstrated prodigious power in the minor leagues. After being drafted by the Yankees in the 28th round in 1990, he slugged at nearly every level. At Double-A Norwich in 1996, Spencer clubbed 29 home runs in 126 games, a season after hitting 16 home runs at High-A Tampa.

It was in 1997, though, that Spencer really provided a glimpse of what would come a season later. In 125 games for the Triple-A Columbus Clippers, Spencer hit 34 doubles and 30 home runs, with a .533 slugging percentage and .292 ISO. While Spencer lacked the pedigree of this year’s rookies—Bryant, Correa, and Schwarber were all first round draft picks—his minor-league peripherals were in line:

The comparison is not perfect, because Spencer’s numbers include parts of four monster seasons at Triple-A in his mid to late 20s, while 2015’s rookies are between ages 20-23. However, Spencer was not putting up dominant power totals in his early 20s, but he did have steadily improving minor-league numbers from ages 21 through 23:

The power continued to improve, but despite his outstanding 1997 in Columbus, Spencer did not receive a September call-up or break camp with the big-league club in 1998.

Instead, he arrived a week into the season, entering his first game as a defensive replacement on April 10th at home against Oakland. Spencer’s first big-league at-bat came a week later on April 17th against Detroit’s Justin Thompson at Tigers Stadium. He grounded out to Billy Ripken at short, and finished 0-for-4 with a sacrifice fly in the Yankees 11-2 win.

Spencer would soon return to Columbus, come back for a game in June, only to be sent down again after just two plate appearances. He returned to the team in late July, but it was still not a permanent stay in the Bronx.

Spencer’s first major-league home run came on August 7th at Yankee Stadium*. Against Tim Byrdak of the Kansas City Royals, the home run came in Spencer’s 19th plate appearance, meaning his 10 home runs came in just 55 plate appearances. Just two innings later, Spencer added his second home run, this one off of Matt Whisenant. The Yankees won 14-2 and moved 53 games over .500

 *That night, Johnny Damon led-off and played right field for the Royals.

While he also added two doubles in his breakout performance, Spencer was sent down in mid-August without hitting another home run. When the rosters expanded on September 1st, he was back with the Yankees. Nobody could have predicted at the time, but Spencer was about to embark on an otherworldly September in which he hit eight home runs in 42 plate appearances. On September 4th, Spencer hit his third home run off of Mike Sirotka in Chicago, and the Yankees won their 100th game of the season.

Spencer’s fourth home run was one to remember. On September 18th in Baltimore, Spencer hit a grand slam off Jesse Orosco, part of a seven-run Yankees ninth inning, and the Yankees moved 6o games over .500. Today, Orosco is 58 years old.

The Yankees finished the regular season with a seven-game homestand against the Cleveland Indians and expansion Tampa Bay Rays. With a 20.5 game lead and the division long wrapped up, Spencer received ample playing time. He started six of seven games, and unquestionably made the most of his opportunity. In 26 plate appearances in the season’s final week, Spencer hit six home runs, including two off of Dave Burba on September 22nd. 

On the season’s final day, Spencer punctuated his historic seven weeks in the only way possible: hitting a grand slam in an 8-3 Yankees victory.

The power surge continued into the playoffs, with Spencer hitting a home run in both Games Two and Three of the American League Division Series against the Texas Rangers. He received just 20 plate appearances in the postseason, but he made his mark for not just a World Series champion, but arguably the greatest team in baseball history. Spencer was part of a Yankees outfield that, perhaps signifying the era of baseball, hit .299/.380/.482 as a group, with a remarkable .183 ISO and 11.4 percent walk rate.

Interestingly, Spencer received just seven plate appearances before July 28th, but he hit more home runs than fellow rookies David Ortiz (nine home runs in 326 plate appearances) and Adrian Beltre (seven home runs in 214 plate appearances). Granted it was a small sample (Spencer did not even reach the 130 plate appearances that qualifies a rookie), but his power numbers outpaced both rookies and the entire league:

Perhaps the most amazing part of Spencer’s season: He accumulated a 1.4 bWARP in just 27 games. A quarter of his career bWARP would come in those 27 games, as he would finish with a career 5.9 bWARP in 538 games. That year, 17 percent of his career home runs came in 3.9 percent of his career plate appearances.

As of this writing, Kris Bryant leads all rookies with 496 plate appearances.  It took Spencer parts of three seasons to reach 496 plate appearances. While he was hitting .267/.323/.496 with 26 home runs when he reached that mark in June 2000, it was clear that at 28 years old, he was not not an everyday player for the Yankees. This season’s rookies sluggers appear to be cornerstones of their franchises for the next decade, but that is not how Spencer’s career would unfold. 

Also worth noting, six of Spencer’s 10 home runs came in the season’s final week, when the Yankees opponents were expansion Tampa Bay and a Cleveland team who clinched the AL Central with 10 days remaining in the season. The  rookies discussed in this piece had the entirety of their first 73 plate appearances in the middle of the season on teams contending for the playoffs, except for Joc Pederson.

As you might have guessed from the preceding paragraphs, Spencer never replicated his 1998 numbers. He finished his career with 59 home runs, 43 coming with the Yankees, reaching double-digit home-run totals in just two of the next six seasons. Spencer left the Yankees after the 2002 season, spent the two next seasons with the Indians, Rangers, and New York Mets, and played his final game on July 22, 2004. His final home run came on July 19th at Shea Stadium, a three-run shot off of Dontrelle Willis. The Mets released Spencer in early August. A week later he signed with the Yankees as a free agent, rising as high as Triple-A Norfolk. 

In seven seasons, Spencer hit .262/.326/.428 with a .166 ISO and .268 TAv. He would never reach his rookie heights, but his 1998 stands as one of the most unique and tremendous arrivals in big league history. Spencer never rose to the level to which the Cubs and Astros hope their rookie power hitters will, but for seven weeks he was as good as any of 2015’s first-year sluggers.

Lead photo courtesy of Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Not everybody, however, was enthusiastic about McCann’s arrival in the Bronx. Some people, like his former manager, thought McCann would not be comfortable playing in New York. Others saw a catcher about to turn 30 with more than 1,000 games on his legs,whose number of games caught had decreased for three consecutive seasons, and was just a season removed from posting just a .245 TAv and 1.5 bWARP.

No matter how you felt about the signing, though, you had to agree on one thing: McCann would at least hit for some power in Yankee Stadium. After all, he was a left-handed batter who averaged 21 home runs per season from 2006 through 2013, and pulled the ball 46 percent of the time (league average was about 39 percent during that period), making him ideally suited for the Stadium’s dimensions. 

So imagine most people’s surprise when McCann struggled at home throughout 2014, hitting just .242/.288/.496 at Yankee Stadium. He still produced a 117 wRC+, thanks to 19 of his 23 home runs coming at home. No other catcher in baseball hit more than 14 home runs at home, and only three players in all of baseball hit more than McCann’s 19.

While McCann’s power numbers were strong, he failed to do just about anything else offensively, especially get on-base. Of the 13 MLB catchers who had at least 200 home at-bats last season, McCann ranked 12th with a .288 on-base percentage. In fact, 2014 was filled with one disappointing homestand after another for McCann offensively. As you will see, nearly every homestand produced the same results: two or three home runs, few, if any, walks, and a miniscule BABIP and AVG.

In the season’s opening homestand against the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and Chicago Cubs, McCann went 5-for-27, good for a .659 OPS. He did hit two home runs in the eight games, but drew just one walk in 28 plate appearances. He posted just a .143 BABIP.

After a very good seven game road trip in which he hit .346/.393/.500, McCann’s struggles continued when the team returned home in late April. In seven games against the Los Angels of Anaheim, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays, he went 4-for-28 with a .454 OPS. He managed one home run,  but had no walks and a .136 BABIP.

McCann improved slightly better during a 10 game homestand in late July, when he hit .270/.308/.405,. The plate discipline remained absent (no walks), but there was still some power (one home run). His .281 BABIP was his highest total for any homestand of four or more games in 2014, but in the Yankees longest homestand of the season, McCann walked just once in 39 plate appearances.

The July improvements preceded McCann’s one shining homestand, which came during a nine game stretch to open September. After a mediocre August overall (.219/.282/.453), McCann returned to Yankee Stadium for a nine game stretch against Boston, Tampa Bay, and the Kansas City Royals. In eight games, McCann hit .310/.355/.621 with three home runs. He opened the homestand by going 6-for-8 with two home runs in the first two games against the Red Sox. McCann, though, walked just once in 31 plate appearances.

Unfortunately, the newfound home success was short lived. In a nine game homestand that closed out the season (minus the final weekend series at Fenway Park), McCann hit just .207/.250/.517. Again, he hit for power (three home runs), but could do very little else (one walk and a .136 BABIP).

For the season, McCann posted a .214 BABIP at home, and a strikeout rate (14 percent) three times his walk rate (4.7 percent). The dip in home walk rate and overall walk rate (5.9 percent) was cause for concern. From 2005 through 2013, McCann posted an overall walk rate (9.5 percent) better than both the league average for catcher’s (8.0 percent) and the overall league average (8.4 percent). It was a major part of his offensive game that had vanished, and it was a cause for concern heading into this season.

2015

That concern, though, dissipated almost immediately this season. Entering Tuesday’s game against the Minnesota Twins, McCann was hitting .288/.369/.595 with 13 home runs at Yankee Stadium. He owns a 160 wRC+ at home, and his .287 BABIP is nearly 70 points higher than last season. Of the 170 major league players who received at least 153 home at-bats through Monday’s games, McCann’s has the 13th highest OPS (.964). 

So, why is McCann finding so much more success at home in 2015? Is he pulling the pull with greater frequency? Is he hitting more line drive and fly balls?

For starters, McCann is walking at rates consistent with his career numbers prior to 2014. This season, his walk rate has more than doubled at home, from 4.7 percent to 9.9 percent. In fact, McCann already has nearly as many walks this season (12) as he did all of last season (13), in 102 fewer plate appearances entering Tuesday night. 

No longer a boom or bust hitter at the Stadium, McCann has more doubles this season (8) than he did in 2014 (7), and just 19 fewer hits.

Interestingly, McCann is actually striking out more frequently at home this season, but otherwise his home splits are comparable, with only slight increases in his home run to fly ball ratio and pull percentage:

And unlike 2014, McCann had been remarkably consistent at home this season up until the previous three homstands:

McCann, however, showed signs of busting out of his recent home slump against the Twins, going for 3-for-5 with a double and home run in the first game of their series. (Editor’s note: McCann went 0-for-3 with a walk against the Twins on Tuesday).

In 2015 at home, McCann is reaching base with greater frequency (and consistent with his career numbers) and riding a BABIP more than 70 points above last season’s average. He also remains a pull hitter capable of consistently taking advantage of the Stadium’s short porch in right field. The 2014 struggles appear to be an aberration, at least at the moment. As of Tuesday, Yankees play 19 of their next 25 games at home. This season, that has to be music to the ears of Brian McCann.

(Photo: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports)

The purple and teal (or aqua?) pinstripes of the Arizona Diamondbacks, that is. The left-hander with an incredible resume—five Cy Youngs Awards, 10 All-Star Games, 303 wins, 4,875 strikeouts (second all-time)—will wear a Diamondbacks cap on his plaque. After all, it was in Arizona that Johnson spent eight seasons, winning his lone World Series championship, four of his Cy Young Awards, and put together four consecutive 300 strikeout seasons.

Discussed with slightly less wonder and frequency is Johnson’s two seasons (2005 and 2006) with the New York Yankees. In fact, his time in the Bronx seems relegated to the dustbin of history, and when remembered, it is often viewed as disappointing and maybe even slightly embarrassing. At the time, though, it was a major acquisition which the Yankees made to reestablish themselves as the best team in the American League. And for one season, though it is often forgotten, Johnson lived up to the hype.

The 2004 offseason, as you might remember, was a time of frustration and reflection for the Yankees. Their offense had finished first or second in the AL in almost every major category, and they were returning peak Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Gary Sheffield, and would be augmented by the arrival of Robinson Cano. The offense was not the problem.

No, when the Yankees assessed the 2004 season, it was the starting pitching that would need improvement. In 2004, the Yankees had just two pitchers in the top 30 in FIP in the AL. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had three of the top 10, with a fourth ranked 19th. In the ALCS, the Yankees had turned to Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown to starts Game Six and Seven, respectively.

Enter Randy Johnson. He was coming off a 2004 campaign in which he led the NL in strikeouts (290), strikeout rate (30.1 percent), WHIP (0.90), opponent’s OPS (.557), ERA+ (176), and FIP (2.30). He even pitched a perfect game against the Atlanta Braves on May 18. Johnson lost the Cy Young Award to Houston’s Roger Clemens, despite having superior numbers across the board, except in the win-loss columns (remember those days before us baseball geeks inherited the earth?). While Johnson benefitted from a .267 BABIP, 30 points below his career average and his lowest season since 1990, it didn’t reflect a declining pitcher who was lucky.

At age 41, Johnson was still among baseball’s most dominant pitchers. In the six seasons from 1999 (his first full season in the NL) through 2004, Johnson had put up just ridiculous numbers:

The Yankees had targeted their guy. In January 2005, the Yankees acquired Johnson for left-handed starter Brad Halsley, catching prospect Dioner Navarro, and Javier Vazquez. He was headed to the Bronx, following a waived no-trade clause, a $57 million contract extension, and one camera guy shoved onto the sidewalk.

Johnson got off to an excellent start in 2005. He got the ball at home to start the season, taking on the Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball. Johnson went six innings, giving up one earned run on five hits and two walks, and striking out six. He earned the win in the Yankees 9-2 victory.

Johnson, amazingly, made six starts against the Red Sox in 2005. He went 5-0 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings pitched. On the season’s second-to-last day, Johnson picked up the win as the Yankees clinched the division at Fenway Park. He threw a season-high 122 pitches, striking out eight and allowing three earned runs in 7 1/3 innings.

Johnson’s strikeout numbers plummeted in 2005. Johnson’s first double-digit strikeout game did not come until June 16th against Pittsburgh. He had just three on the season, after posting 14 double-digit strikeout starts in 2004.

Johnson finished the season at 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA  and 112 ERA+. He was second in the AL in strikeouts (211), strikeout rate (22.9 percent), and WHIP (1.13), and eighth in FIP (3.78). However, despite his impressive totals pitching in the AL East, Johnson did not receive a single Cy Young vote in 2005.

2006 was not as productive for Johnson. For the second consecutive season, Johnson earned a win as the team’s Opening Day starter, giving up one earned run in seven innings at Oakland. It was mostly downhill from there. He posted a career worst ERA (5.00), his lowest ERA+ since 1989 (90), his highest FIP since 1990 (4.27), and his worst walk rate since 2001 (7.0 percent). His strikeout numbers fell again (just one double-digit strikeout game), but he still ranked 10th in the AL in strikeouts (172) and 11th in strikeout rate (20.0 percent). He would finish 17-11. Home runs remained an issue, as Johnson surrendered 28 that season, and 60 total in his two seasons with the Yankees.

In two regular seasons, Johnson posted average to very good numbers, overall:

However, Johnson made two disastrous postseason starts for the Yankees, both coming in the ALDS. In the 2005 ALDS against Anaheim, Johnson did not start until Game Three at home, due to pitching in the second-to-last game of the regular season. With the series tied 1-1, Johnson lasted just three innings and struck out just two Angels batters. He surrendered all five runs on home runs, including a three-run homer to Garrett Anderson in the first inning and a two-run homer to Benji Molina in the third inning. The Yankees would rally to take a lead after Johnson left the game, but the Angels would prevail 11-7 in the game, and 3-2 in the series.

In Game Three of the 2006 ALDS at Detroit, with the series tied 1-1, Johnson fell victim to Kenny Rogers’s Magical Mystery Tour through the postseason. Johnson lasted 5 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs on eight hits and two walks. The Tigers would get to him in the second inning, scoring three runs on four hits and sending seven batters to the plate. The Yankees would lose 6-0, and be eliminated the next day (with Alex Rodriguez batting eighth, you might recall).

Game Three in Detroit would be Johnson’s last start with the Yankees.

In January 2007, the now 43-year-old Johnson was traded back to Arizona for Alberto Gonzalzez, Steven Jackson, Ross Ohlendorf, and Luis Vizcaino. Johnson pitched three more seasons for the Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants, posting a 4.17 ERA (4.00 FIP) and 23.3 percent strikeout rate in 57 starts.

The Yankees acquired Johnson at a time when they needed an ace. In 2005, at least, Johnson was a true number one starter and among the very best pitchers in the American League. With him, the team stretched their AL East title streak to nine seasons, but failed to advance to the ALCS in consecutive seasons for the first time since before the strike in 1994. Randy Johnson’s time in the Bronx might not be the highpoint of his Hall-of-Fame career, but it should be more than a just a footnote.

Lead photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No matter what you call the first half of Mark Teixeira’s 2015, though, one thing is undeniably true: Teixeira is on pace for his best or second best season as a New York Yankee, his recent two-week slump notwithstanding.

In fact, if this piece had been written on June 25, Teixeira’s resurgence would be even more pronounced. On that morning, he was hitting .259/.369/.557 with 18 home runs and a 15.7 percent walk rate. He was producing these outstanding numbers despite a .234 BABIP.

What followed was an 11-game stretch from June 25-July 7, when Teixeira went just 5-for-40, posting a .575 OPS and .120 BABIP. Entering the game on July 8, he had seen his OPS drop by more than 50 points in two weeks.

Still, through last Wednesday night, his team’s first 84 games, Teixeira has produced numbers comparable to 2009, his monstrous first season with the Yankees. As of this writing, he is posting the best TAv (.318) and OPS+ (146) of his Yankees career, with the second best OPS (.902), and he is on pace for his most home runs in a season since he hit 43 for the Texas Rangers in 2005.

While Teixeira’s first-half is undoubtedly impressive, and worthy of the countless “Teixeiras’s back!” columns that have been or will be written, this piece is focused on a significant reason for his improved production: he is again dominating four-seam fastballs. Teixeira’s 2015 return to offensive levels from a half-decade ago is due largely to his performance against four-seam fastballs, the pitch he has seen the most in every season of his career:

As you can see, after Teixeira’s first season with the Yankees, his production against four-seam fastballs decreased across the board — he walked less, struckout with greater frequency, hit fewer home runs, and saw his BABIP plummet. From 2010-2014, Teixeira saw four-seam fastballs 34.1% of all pitches, hitting .231/.351/.451, with a shockingly low .221 BABIP.

That has changed in 2015. More specifically, Teixeira has seen a sizeable improvement in his production against four-seamers from right-handed pitchers:

Since joining the Yankees, Teixeira has seen four-seamers from right-handed pitchers a quarter of all pitches and about 70 percent of all four-seam fastballs.

As we discussed at the top of the piece, Teixeira struggled mightily in the two weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not surprisingly, it has coincided with a sharp decrease in his production against four-seamers:

During his eleven game slump, Teixeira had swung at more four-seam fastballs, while putting fewer balls in play, and whiffing at a significantly higher frequency:

On July 8, though, Teixeira showed definite signs of coming out of the slump, with both of his home runs coming on four-seam fastballs from Athletics reliever Evan Scribner. In 2015, Scribner had thrown his four-seamer 47.5% of all pitches, with opposing batters hitting just .206/.242/.444 against the pitch. Despite his 31.8 percent strikeout rate with the fastball, he had surrendered five home runs on the season. Even so, what Teixeira did in consecutive at-bats in the middle-innings was damn impressive.

In the fourth inning, Teixeira took a 93.5 MPH four-seam fastball up and away on 1-and-2, and launched it into the right field bleachers:

In the sixth-inning, Teixeira took another four-seamer up and away, this time a 92.8 MPH fastball on 2-2, and again deposited it into the right-field stands:

On both home runs, Teixeira showed enough strength and bat speed to pull 93 MPH fastballs for home runs. For one night at least, he righted the ship against four-seam fastballs.

This is a brief, tangentially related aside. In 2015, when batting from the right-side, Teixeira has hit three home runs to the opposite field:

Amazingly, that is already more than he hit from 2010-2014:

During that five season stretch, Teixeira hit 81 home runs against right-handed pitchers, with only one going to the opposite field. He has surpassed that total in 84 games this season. Of course, this encompasses all pitches and not just four-seam fastballs.  However, a 35 year old slugger who can still hit for power to the opposite field, especially one who sees fastballs 61% of all pitches, must be doing something right.

Teixeira has been outstanding in the first half of 2015, with a deserved All-Star selection (just his third, surprisingly) to show for his efforts. His power against four-seam fastballs, especially from right-handed pitchers, is a major reason why he was in Cincinnati next week. Through the season’s first three plus months, it has been like 2009 all over again, just with noticeably less Lady Gaga on the radio. And for that reason, we, by whom I mean you, me, and Teixeira, are all winners.

(Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA Today Sports)