USATSI_9350730_168381444_lowres (1)

A-Rod’s fly balls just don’t fly like they used to

Theoretically speaking, power hitting a pretty simple business. In order to get hit home runs you need to hit the ball hard and put it in the air often. Just because it’s simple that doesn’t mean it’s easy to do, nothing could be farther from the truth. But it’s easy enough to conceptualize.

Traditionally Alex Rodriguez hasn’t quite fit the mold for power hitters in the sense that he puts the ball on the ground a fair bit. Rodriguez’s ground ball/fly ball ratio has only dipped below one twice since 2002 and right now it sits right around league-average at 1.30.

Considering he’s four home runs for 700, you might expect he’d be more of an extreme fly ball hitter, but Rodriguez isn’t Trevor Story or Chris Davis and he never will be. How he’s compensated to become one of the greatest power hitters of all time is by making the fly balls he does hit count.

Since batted ball split data first became available in 2002, Rodriguez has hit .309 on fly balls and slugged 1.013 with with a home run rate (20.8%) twice as high as his pop up rate (10.0%). When the man puts the ball in the air that ball has time for a couple of in-flight movies.

This year that has not really been the case as Rodriguez’s flies have been less potent than ever. For the first time ever his OPS on fly balls sits below 1.000 at .954. His wRC+ on them is 136, well below a previous worst of 165. His infield fly percentage (14.8%) is his second-highest to date and his HR/FB ratio (16.7%) is his fourth-lowest.

Rodriguez’s fly-ball spray chart shows where his issue lies.

Alex Rodriguez (1)

For the first time in his career he’s put 50 percent of his fly balls out to right field. With a 41-year-old hitter the natural inclination would be to assume that a loss a bat speed might be an issue. If he’s late on a few more pitches they might end up in right.

Whatever the cause, the result is that Rodriguez is hitting fly balls to an area where they are not dangerous. At this point in his career he just doesn’t have the ability to drive opposite-field home runs with any kind of consistency. The less he pulls the ball in the air, the less scary his power is going to be.

So far, a large part of what’s made A-Rod so prolific is that a fly ball off his bat is worth a cheer from the crowd and a little arrhythmia in the hearts of opposing pitchers. In 2016 that hasn’t been the case and the results speak for themselves.

Rodriguez has a .206/.256/.354 line and is being marginalized on a Yankees team that could use a little more offence. Essentially he’s been what people feared he’d become last year before he put up the surprising season that made a fanbase and nation forgive his prior misdeeds.

Right now the quadragenarian looks old and washed up, and if he can’t make his fly balls great again thing aren’t going to get any better.

 

Note: Data through play on Thursday

 

Photo: Anthony Gruppuso / USA Today Sports

Related Articles

Leave a comment

Use your Baseball Prospectus username