Watching Nathan Eovaldi pitch is one of the most frustrating things in the world. More frustrating than running to a train only to have the conductor close the doors in your face, or seeing a car pull out right in front of you only to do 25 in a 40 mph zone. You always hear about Eovaldi’s “stuff” and see the radar readings when he pitches so you know how hard he throws the ball, but then those same balls are creamed for home runs.
Back in April, I wrote a piece about Eovaldi, and in it, I cited some reasons which explained why I thought he could be a better starting pitcher in 2016. In May, he actually proved me right by pitching well. Batters only hit .241/.297/.336 against him overall and he limited the long ball, only surrendering three home runs. Then June and early July came along, and it seems poor Eovaldi has crashed face first into a brick wall at about 98 mph. Batters hit .339/.388/.696 against him in June and have hit .368/.455/.789 so far in July. He also gave up 12 home runs during that span. Even more disturbing than those numbers were his total bases. He gave up 46 apiece in April and May, and that number skyrocketed in June when he gave up 78 total bases. Those 12 home runs didn’t help matters, and neither did the 10 doubles and one triple during that span.
His ERA in June was 8.65 and it’s 12.46 thus far in July. Overall, his ERA is 5.54 which places him right near the bottom of the MLB leaderboards. His DRA is 5.11 and his cFIP is 112 and batters have a .267 TAv against him.
On Monday, the Yankees announced that they were moving Eovaldi to the bullpen, for now, but they also reiterated that it was a temporary move until the All-Star break. Chad Green, who pitched well for the Yankees on Sunday in San Diego, and helped them pick up their only win at Petco Park over the weekend, will be his short-term replacement. I’d actually like for that move to be permanent, because I think Eovaldi is better suited for the bullpen, but I also understand why the Yankees can’t/won’t do it. At least not yet.
Here’s a look at some more of his numbers from the past two months:
- In May, when things were going well, Eovaldi used his four seam fastball 53.6 percent, his curve ball 5.4 percent, his slider 17.1 percent and his split fingered fastball 23.8 percent.
- In June, he threw the four seamer 45.9 percent, curve 4.4 percent, slider 21.51 and split 27.72.
Eovaldi increased his slider and split usage while decreasing his fastball usage and it didn’t work out that well for him.
This is how batters were hitting against his four seam fastball after June 1. Notice what happens when he throws it in the low and/or in the middle of the zone.
And this is how batters were slugging against his four seam fastball in June. Again, he was burned by pitches low and in the middle of the zone:
So even though he decreased the number of fastballs he’s thrown since June 1, batters were creaming them for extra bases.
When you look at his slider zone profile from June 1 on, there’s one particular pitch that stayed up in the zone and was hit for a home run:
As I always like to say, when the slider isn’t sliding, there’s a problem. But even more disconcerting is the bottom of the graph. It seems some batters are expecting that slider and when it’s middle and down, they’re hitting it.
Another thing I noticed while diving into these numbers was a slight dip in his fastball velocity. It’s only about a mile per hour, but it’s something to look out for as the season goes on. Also, the June average was the highest so far this season. He started the year off closer to 97.3 mph, increased to 98.2 in May, hit 98.4 in June and is now back down to 97.8. And while his fastball velocity peaked in June, Eovaldi’s slider velocity actually dipped down to 85.1 from a season high of 89.6 in April. The two charts look like opposites of each other and this probably is a reason why Eovaldi’s June and July (so far) have been challenging.
Since June 1, batters are hitting .388 off Eovaldi’s fastball. .294 off his slider and .311 off his split finger fastball. Even worse they’re slugging .816 with a .420 ISO off his four seamer. Last year, between June 1 and July 6, Eovaldi didn’t surrender a home run. His issue during the same time frame last season was giving up a lot of singles on his four seamer. Batters were hitting .304 but only slugging .357 with an .054 ISO.
It’ll be worth watching how Eovaldi does out of the bullpen. Like I already said, I think he’s probably better off as a reliever and would welcome that move. Right now, batters are hitting .331/.370/.657 with 13 home runs in innings four through six against Eovaldi. If he’s coming out of the bullpen, he (hopefully) would not be facing a lot of batters and won’t have to deal with the same guys seeing him two or three times a game and adjusting to his pitches.
Remember how well Phil Hughes did out of the bullpen in 2009? I think Eovaldi could help shore up the middle relief core and give the Yankees a better chance of winning games that they’re trying to hang on to because a starter couldn’t make it out of the fifth or sixth inning. It will be worth watching in the coming days.
Photo: Jake Roth / USA TODAY Sports