When the season began, Ivan Nova had been sequestered in the bullpen for the first time in his life. A shaky first year back from Tommy John surgery had fostered a lack of trust in him. Spring Training saw the beginning of a battle between him and CC Sabathia for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, and Sabathia’s veteran status won out. Sabathia found his way onto the disabled list, though, so Nova swung back into the rotation. The results have been pleasantly surprising.
Through 30 1/3 innings, Nova has pitched to a 3.26 ERA. What’s more, he looks like a whole new pitcher. A startling 66.7 percent of the pitches he’s had put in play have been on the ground, which is easily the highest rate of his career. Though his 5.54 DRA points to some potential for massive regression, 30 1/3 innings is hardly a large sample size, and therefore DRA needs more time to fully stabilize and provide a more accurate picture of Nova’s work.
Speaking of accurate depictions of Nova’s work, take a gander at this.
Nova began to scrap his four-seam fastball last year in favor of his sinker. That trend has continued in dramatic fashion so far in 2016. Just 9.25 percent of the pitches that Nova has thrown in 2016 have been four-seamers. In addition, sinker usage has shot up to 62.75 percent. Sinkers, by definition, sink. Their downward movement and usual low placement in the strike zone lead to a higher rate of ground balls. That’s far more ideal than Nova generating fly balls, since Nova-induced fly balls have a tendency to travel into the next state.
It’s unlikely that Nova maintains this ground ball pace, of course. The highest ground ball rate from a qualified starter in 2015 was Brett Anderson’s 66.3 percent, and the year before that it was Dallas Keuchel’s 63.5 percent. Nova’s 66.7 rate isn’t incredibly higher than those, but Anderson and Keuchel are both super-groundballing pitchers. Assuming that Nova’s peripherals catch up with him, some of those grounders will turn into line drives and fly balls.
Unfortunately, the Yankees need Nova to maintain this as long as possible if the Yankees intend on competing in the AL East. Starting pitching is a rare commodity these days in New York, given the injuries to Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell, the trade of Adam Warren, and Chad Green and Luis Cessa being so dramatically untested. Conditions aren’t pretty right now.
Here the Yankees stand, hoping upon hope that Nova can best his projections for just long enough to provide stability until something else comes along. There’s still no guarantee that the Yankees will break free of the shackles of last place and move into contention. They certainly won’t do it with Michael Pineda getting shelled every outing and Green and Cessa serving as the first lines of defense in Triple-A. Pitching is at a premium across the game, and the Yankees have gotten the short end of the stick.
So the Yankees will continue on, praying that the next outing, or the one after that, isn’t when Nova’s fairy dust wears off. When that happens, they had better hope that another option has shown its face.
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