In fits of nostalgia, human beings, especially pretentious ones, sometimes like to declare that they were “born too late.”
This statement, on the surface, is usually completely and utterly idiotic. People tend to romanticize past eras because what survived of them is the best they have to offer. In reality they are clinging to particular aspects that appeal to them instead of looking at the issue holistically.
Sure, you might consider the 60’s a better time to go to a rock concert, but the present is a superior time to sit around the house and do nothing, or fall deathly ill. Both of the latter are more universal, but we tend to think of particular people or events that appeal to us and forget how far the mundane things have come and how we’d miss them. If you ever get the option to live in the past, taking it is almost certainly the wrong choice. And as, Louis CK has famously pointed out if you’re not white you can pretty much forget about time travel altogether.
That being said, if there is a guy who has a legitimate claim to the “born too late” label it’s New York Yankees starter Michael Pineda. Putting the potential time-travel racism issue aside for a moment, there’s reason to believe he would have been more successful in an earlier era. After a shellacking at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday it’s clear he isn’t thriving now.
Pineda’s start vs. the Rays was a microcosm of all the issues he’s had recently. He struck out nine and walked only one, but still got shelled. Despite his robust peripherals, he just can’t keep runs off the board. Since the beginning of 2015 his 4.46 ERA in 77th of 93 starters who’ve pitched at least 150 innings. His .333 BABIP ranks fifth and his HR/9 of 1.22 ranks 24th, and is set to jump with the four he allowed on Sunday.
It’s a very peculiar problem because Pineda seems to follow the basic tenets of pitching to a tee. It’s clear that he was gifted with good “stuff,” with above-average velocity and a dangerous slider. He certainly “pounds the zone” as well, which leads to his elite walk rates. With superior length he also works downhill and “keeps the ball down.”
That final cliche is where the 27-year-old runs into trouble. Conventional wisdom dictates that pitchers should attempt to live in the bottom of the strike zone. Unfortunately, that wisdom comes from a bygone era. In 2014 Jeff Sullivan discovered that hitters were now conditioned to use uppercut swing to combat these low pitches, and certain teams like the Oakland Athletics were specifically targeting this swing type. The modern hitter is more vulnerable to pitches up high. Unfortunately, for the Yankees no one told Pineda and he’s getting punished in the bottom of the zone.
The chart below shows the zone breakdown of all the pitches Pineda threw that resulted in base hits in 2015:
This year the story is similar, albeit in a smaller sample:
Pineda is hitting his spots low in the zone, as he’s likely always been taught, that’s just not the move anymore. In a Google Chrome world, he’s still using Internet Explorer. Since the beginning of 2015, opposing hitters are batting .303 against him in the top third of the zone and .352 against him in the lower third, but he’s hitting the lower spot almost twice as often.
Although it’s more or less impossible to quantify pre-PITCHF/x, there was likely a time when the bottom of the zone was where the money was made. For quite a few pitchers it still is, but for Pineda it’s not.
During the first season Baseball Info Solutions recorded velocity in 2002, the average starter threw 88.6 mph. Pineda’s 92.6 mph fastball would have ranked eighth among qualified starters between Curt Schilling and Wade Miller. It was a simpler time when Barry Bonds slugged .799, Brian Giles was the fifth-ranked position player by WAR and Nickelback’s “How You Remind Me” was Billboard‘s single of the year.
Maybe then pounding the zone and keeping the ball down would have worked for Michael Pineda. Unfortunately, for the Yankees it doesn’t work right now. “Big Mike” was simply born too late.
Lead photo: Brad Penner / USA Today Sports