Previewing the 2016 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

With the spring training battles settled and the 25 man roster now set, New York’s minor league teams can begin to put together their own clubs. On Thursday, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, open their season against the Rochester Red Wings. As the organization’s highest minor league level, it’s worth sorting through the potential RailRiders roster to evaluate those players who are one step away from the Bronx in 2016. The names listed as “On the Way Up” are players in Trenton or Tampa who seem likely to make their Scranton debut at some point this season.

Starting Pitchers

The Yankees spent the winter trying to accumulate young starting pitching depth with mixed results. The best young starter GM Brian Cashman brought in was Luis Cessa in the Justin Wilson trade, whom the Baseball Prospectus staff ranked 10th in Detroit’s system prior to the 2015 season. His run prevention in his first go-round in Triple-A was less than stellar, posting an ugly 6.97 ERA in 62 innings split between Las Vegas and Toledo. However, given his solid peripherals (8.4 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9), there is reason to expect improvement going forward. Although it was announced Thursday that Cessa will begin the season in the Yankees’ pen, it seems likely that he will still accumulate most of his innings in the RailRiders’ rotation given the organization’s lack of major-league ready starters. He will presumably serve as New York’s long-man for the moment now that Bryan Mitchell is expected to miss the next three months with a broken toe. That injury also makes him the clear-cut seventh starter on the depth chart behind behind Ivan Nova.  If he is pressed into starting duty, fans shouldn’t expect another Luis Severino. PECOTA’s 90th percentile projection for him is 0.5 WARP. The system also projects him as basically replacement level or below the rest of his career. Keep expectations low.

Most of the other options for Scranton Wilkes-Barre are rubber-armed minor league veterans to soak up innings. Richard Bleier, Tyler Cloyd, Kyle Haynes, Jaron Long, and Eric Ruth do not have the tools for major league success, but possess a solid track record in the upper-minors. Minor league teams need plenty of these guys to get through the season. The Yankees system is notably position player player heavy, and most of the interesting arms they do have have yet to pitch above A-ball. Most of the starting pitchers expected to begin the season in Triple-A are placeholders until James Kaprielian, Domingo Acevedo, and Ian Clarkin begin to climb the ladder.

Two exceptions are Brady Lail and Chaz Hebert. While he’s more of a control guy with underwhelming stuff, Lail is close enough to the show that he has some prospect credibility, even cracking BP’s Yankees top ten before the season. An invite to big league camp this spring was also a promising sign, although he only made two Grapefruit League appearances before his demotion. Lail struggled in his first taste of the International League following a late-season promotion. He only struck out 13 and walked 17 during his 37 Triple-A innings. Lail has never been great at missing bats but will have to do better than that if he has any hope of cracking the majors. The unheralded Hebert was sufficiently impressive during a late season cameo with the RailRiders that he earned a trip to the Arizona Fall League and should receive regular turns in the rotation. With only 17 innings above A-ball to his name, however, he still has a lot to prove.

Relief Pitchers

While the RailRiders’ starting pitching  might seem a little thin, their bullpen should be the class of the International League. With 13 talented but unproven relievers competing over two bullpen spots this spring, the Yankees brass have an enviable problem. Even in Triple-A they will face a roster crunch because of the sheer number of intriguing arms in the system. Guys without 40 man spots like Anthony Swarzak, Diego Moreno, Vinnie Pestano, Mark Montgomery, and Tyler Webb will likely get the short end of the stick when it comes to making cuts.

2014 second-round pick Jacob Lindgren was a surprise inclusion in the first round of roster cuts two weeks ago. After making seven rocky appearances with New York in May and June of last year, Lindgren missed the second half of the season following elbow surgery. It’s difficult to say whether the early demotion this spring was related to his rehab or his continuing control issues, but he will need to resolve both before returning to the majors. On Saturday, Nick Rumbelow and James Pazos were the next relievers voted off the island. Both were inconsistent during Grapefruit League play, struggling with their control at times and just generally getting knocked around. Each were members of the 2015 bullpen shuttle and should be up again at some point this season as well. Wednesday the team optioned Nick Goody, Tyler Olson, and Branden Pinder to Triple-A as well, leaving the RailRiders with six relievers who are more or less certain to be a part of the regular late-inning mix.

The rest of the pitching staff will be filled out by those who don’t make the cut in the spring relievers competition. The Yankees were very successful using the last spot in their bullpen as a revolving door of fresh arms last year. It’s an inventive strategy that takes advantage of the depth Cashman has amassed. If the team takes the same approach in 2016, the RailRiders bullpen will be in constant flux, but there is enough talent in the system that it should remain a strength all season.

Catchers

For better or for worse, Gary Sanchez will begin his seventh season in the Yankee organization in the minor leagues. Still just 23 and ranked third by BP among Yankees prospects before the season, Sanchez’s stock is higher than ever. 2015 was the best season of his professional career on both sides of the ball, as he put together a .284/.336/.535 slash line in 562 PAs split between Trenton, Scranton, and the Arizona Fall League. Coaches and teammates both raved about his rejuvenated effort and attitude, especially regarding his work behind the plate. Going 1-17 during the start of spring training definitely didn’t help matters, but with only 35 days in the minors necessary to delay his free agency by a year, starting the season with Austin Romine as the backup to Brian McCann makes a ton of sense. With all the days off the Yankees have in April, the backup catcher is unlikely to be a major contributor until later in the season, by which point Sanchez will have some additional upper-minors seasoning and hopefully force the team’s hand.

Carlos Corporan reportedly has a late-March opt-out he can exercise if he wants to seek out a better opportunity. With no word on that as of yet, it appears he will serve as Sanchez’s backup for the time being. Eddy Rodriguez is poised to repeat his 2015 role as SWB’s reserve backstop if the team doesn’t retain Corporan. If Romine doesn’t stick as the Yankees’ backup catcher, it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to hang onto him. He passed through waivers untouched last year, but if the Yankees attempt to get him through again, he’ll have the option to elect to become a free agent. 2016 will be his tenth year in the team’s system. It would be understandable if he felt he’d have a better chance at sustained MLB playing time elsewhere. On the other hand, he did go unclaimed last season, so being the third string catcher for the only professional club he’s known may not be his worst option.

Infielders

After two years of tearing up the International League, it looked as if Rob Refsnyder had finally earned a sustained look in the big show. Asked to learn a new position on the fly this spring, Refsnyder impressed even his critics during his first seven games at the hot corner. He was making all the routine plays, most pundits agreed he had the last bench spot all but sewn up. Then, with just over a week to go until Opening Day, two disastrous outings in which he was struck in the face by ground balls in back to back games led to his reassignment back to his old stomping grounds in Scranton. Ref doesn’t have much to prove with the bat in Triple-A, but it will be interesting to see whether he’s used primarily at second or third base. He seems a lock to be called up when the first injury in the Yankees’ infield strikes or even before if her performs well.

Despite batting an atrocious .199/.249/.279 in Trenton, Cito Culver finally reached the highest level of the Yankees’ system in 2015 and will probably return. He will compete with veterans Pete Kozma, Jonathan Diaz, and Donovan Solano for playing time in the middle infield. Chris Parmelee is the placeholder for Greg Bird at first base as he recovers from shoulder surgery. Parmelee has managed a .245/.311/.396 line in 1003 MLB PAs, so he could serve as a replacement-level safety net against another Mark Teixeira injury as well.

It was announced Wednesday that the diminutive Ronald Torreyes has beat out Kozma for the big league backup-infielder gig. However, with at least one minor league option remaining, there is still a reasonable chance he suits up for the RailRiders at some point in 2016. If he does,  he’ll be one of the more interesting players to watch on the roster. Combining plus contact skills with decent speed and defensive versatility, Torreyes is projected by ZiPS to be a sneaky one WAR player in 2016. Strangely, the Yankees will be his seventh organization at just age 23. He played for the Dodgers, Astros, and Blue Jays in 2015 alone before being traded to New York along with Tyler Olson in January. One thing that stands out about Torreyes is that because he’s bounced around so much, he’s rarely had a full season to get comfortable and establish himself anywhere. If he does get sent down, I’d love to see him get something resembling a full season’s worth of PAs in Scranton. It isn’t difficult to imagine him turning into a useful utility guy or even a halfway-decent starting second baseman.

Outfielders

Few organizations in baseball can run out a Triple-A outfield this deep and talented. Four of New York’s top 20 prospects according to MLB.com will be fighting for playing time on any given day. As the team’s near-consensus top prospect, Aaron Judge is scheduled for a full year in right field before hopefully stepping in for the departing Carlos Beltran in 2017. Despite his prodigious power potential, having a full, lower-pressure season to work on his issues with contact and pitch recognition is probably necessary to keep him progressing.

With their exciting but brief MLB debuts, Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott reminded everyone in 2015 why they were once so highly touted, before once again struggling with injury issues. The field is crowded, but there is still enough promise left with both players that it’s not hard to see them becoming toolsy fourth outfielders or even capable major league regulars if things break right. Ben Gamel might have put himself first in line for a big league call-up with his .300/.358/.472 breakout in a full 2015 with the RailRiders. The team clearly believes in him. They added him to the 40 man this winter and have given him significant playing time this spring.

With so much talent ahead of him, the addition of speedster Lane Adams this offseason seemed like an odd one. Although he is polished enough to help a big league club in a bench role in 2016,  he looks like the fifth Triple-A outfielder in the best case because of New York’s depth. Under ordinary circumstances, both Cesar Puello and Tyler Austin would be shoe-ins for the Scranton roster. Both are 24 year old former top prospects who have at least a half-season of Triple-A experience under their belt. One look at the depth chart however, and it seems clear that the pair will either be in Double-A Trenton to begin the season or with different organizations barring an injury.

Just for fun, here’s a prediction of what the lineup might look like when the RailRiders square off against the Red Wings on April 7 (Keep in mind Mason Williams is expected to start the season on the disabled list):

Lead photo: Kim Klement / USA Today Sports